August Discussion/Obs

[weatherwiz]

I can't wait to go on my Poke walk today!!! Hopefully the heat/humidity don't scare the Pokemon away  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I can't wait to go on my Poke walk today!!! Hopefully the heat/humidity don't scare the dudes away  

Hope you find a keeper 

[dendrite]

82F at ASH/MHT/DAW

BVY/OWD/BOS 88

Feel like it's going to end up being another E MA day.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

16/05 on MWN right now. Mix that DA from 825 down to 1015 and it's about 88F. Models took the edge off of the 850s a bit the past few days. Lots of 19-20C on 15z valid progs. Probably a lot of 95-98s in the hot spots.

yeah, I was being a facetious with the 'laws'

and lazy. I didn't look at jack shit this morning - just the temp rises since dawn, and the memory of the models and the discussion.  

But okay - that all makes sense.   I've often stated myself, heat is the most fragile of all phenomenon for models to try and negotiate successfully from a D8 ...all the way to the morning soundings of the barbecue - not surprising they couldn't verify a +2 SD 850 mb anomaly from D10 ( or whatever the anomaly was..)

[CoastalWx]

Breezy 230 wind here too so it’s mixing a bit. 97-98 doable here I think. At least Boston anyways.

[CoastalWx]

18 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t wish to steal your snow but these se zone focused blizzards have been very common since 2011. 

BTW, I never wish to steal anyone's snow....except maybe Kevin at times. I hope you guys cash in this year. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Maybe my house hits 90 for the third time this year

I think BOS has around a dozen or so?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

50 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I would be showing that to your neighbor.

Agreed. That’s a pretty impressive static water level though, even during dry periods. Normally on a few feet below the ground 

[weathafella]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If the 10 after 10 has any use on a day like this, ...nope

Logan appears to be a round 88 at 10.   Rocketing pretty good so we’ll see. 85 here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

BTW, I never wish to steal anyone's snow....except maybe Kevin at times. I hope you guys cash in this year. 

Not gonna lie, I'd love nothing more than to steal the snow of those in a corridor from about you down to Brett and Ginx for the next several seasons.

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not gonna lie, I'd love nothing more than to steal the snow of those in a corridor from about you down to Brett and Ginx for the next several seasons.

Would you rather see them screwed and get a lot of snow vs everyone getting dumped on?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not gonna lie, I'd love nothing more than to steal the snow of those in a corridor from about you down to Brett and Ginx for the next several seasons.

Of course you would.   I know how bad it sucks. I’d rather all of us get snow. If that means I get 8-10” in a messy storm and you get 20”, I’m cool with that. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Would you rather see them screwed and get a lot of snow vs everyone getting dumped on?

Yeah that’s what I just posted. It’s much more fun when all get snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Would you rather see them screwed and get a lot of snow vs everyone getting dumped on?

Yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Think about it....if this kid down the street in the neighborhood has been holding you by the feet with your head in the toilet, while flushing for the past several years, would you rather you all get invited to the pizza party, or see everyone else enjoy with that SOB crying while staring in the window?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

You can be like PF posting all alone in the Methuen obs thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

You can be like PF posting all alone in the Methuen obs thread.

Deal.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

BTW, I never wish to steal anyone's snow....except maybe Kevin at times. I hope you guys cash in this year. 

I just want that big one. The one you tell your grandkids about decades later. I’m going on 11 years of misses, busts, and untimely moves (Feb 13). 
 

I’d like that TBlizz feeling of meh’ing every model run as the flakes magically pile above the snowblower. Someday…

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Think about it....if this kid down the street in the neighborhood has been holding you by the feet with your had in the toilet, while flushing for the past several years, would you rather you all get invited to the pizza party, or see everyone else with the SOB crying while starting in the window?

You act like you've been totally shut out. Why not have hostility to Will in Holliston? He pulled 18" out of his ass in January. Clobbered in Feb 2021, Dec 2019, March 2018 etc.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You act like you've been totally shut out. Why not have hostility to Will in Holliston? He pulled 18" out of his ass in January. Clobbered in Feb 2021, Dec 2019, March 2018 etc.  

I count him as part of that corridor...the NW edge of it.

[CoastalWx]

If I get 8" in a SWFE and Ray gets 7.5", send the nukes I guess.

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You act like you've been totally shut out. Why not have hostility to Will in Holliston? He pulled 18" out of his ass in January. Clobbered in Feb 2021, Dec 2019, March 2018 etc.  

I can only remember Will getting 1 relative screw job since 2007 and he had a nice melt after it.

[Typhoon Tip]

So I feel we're running out of time.  

The sun will be slipping from the max into the transitioning solar (-) here in a week.   It's a slow process there after ( though accelerating...), obviously.  So no, not saying it shuts down 'big heat' chances at 10:34am next Wednesday or anything. 

But the reality is, an exact same air mass on August 20 does not heat as vastly as it would on July 20, when the only remaining factor to consider is the sun versus.   In fact the difference between May 20, June 20, and July 20, is a lower solar variance than the differential between (August 20 - July 20).  And it matters for hot weather prospecting...

Thus, any 'hot' pattern leaves some on the table as a built in celestial circumstance, moving forward.  

I think whatever happens today, and then thru about next Tuesday... might be it for this year.   I'm seeing the beginnings ( perhaps never left?) in the extended guidance ens systems, to never give up on a NW flow through the middle of the Canada.  No sooner does the pattern seems to finally set up zonal up there, the next two cycles collapse right back - that kind of return propensity might signify at 'truer' base-line circulation mode.  

This sniffs out for me as that leitmotif autumns of recent years ( regardless of all telecon's, land, air, sea or in combinations too), to fold the continental flow over early, triggering a faux winter pattern in early on, resulting in packing pellet virga CU on October 10ths...with synoptic supporting cryo by Halloween... 

Why do we think it's snowed so often in October over recency ?  I mean this is real - causality aside.  Anyway, I'm not talking about 'getting snow' by November 1st, just that I am very leery of signals that we may be seeing whatever is causing the autumn oddity, plausibly putting in a reservation early to repeat.

[40/70 Benchmark]

BTW, that powderfreak effect with me posting alone would never happen because of how close I live to the region. Any event that clobbered me would instill enough hope to the rest of the region to lure them in...and even once it was clear that it had gone bad, they would already be mesmerized in that same morbidly alluring way of those fixed on the 8 car pile up on I 93. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I can only remember Will getting 1 relative screw job since 2007 and he had a nice melt after it.

MLK 2010...I'll never forget that. One of three times I have ever seen him lose his composure.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BTW, that powderfreak effect with me posting along would never happen because of how close I live to the region. Any event that clobbered me would instill enough hope to the rest of the region to lure them in...and even once it was clear that it had gone bad, they would already be mesmerized in that same morbidly alluring way of those fixed on the 8 car pile up on I 93. 

I still post when it goes bad. I'd rather have that and have it interesting for some, vs a discussion about if low pressure goes over Syracuse or Utica.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MLK 2010.

That was Kevin. Will melted after the March 2010 nor'easter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I still post when it goes bad. I'd rather have that and have it interesting for some, vs a discussion about if low pressure goes over Syracuse or Utica.

I have still posted these past few years, though I did check out on the blizzard by about 1030am...I had had it and needed a mental break. People like you were trying to play the role of meteorological therapist and console me by telling me that I'd get some bands in the PM, but I knew.....writing was on the wall.

I slept from about noon to 6pm. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Logan appears to be a round 88 at 10.   Rocketing pretty good so we’ll see. 85 here.

Yup... KFIT too out along rt 2. 

It was an interesting temp behavior.  Appeared to plateau after a 12 point initial bounce - but I just noticed imby at FIT, both locations the breeze become more active right around the time this 2nd spike took place.   

So that evidence suggests the earlier 'stall' may have been a brief decoupling ceiling. 

 

[CoastalWx]

I'll be honest since we are in the "truth tree" LOL. The only time (and this is just very seldom) that I sort of laugh at someone getting screwed, is Kevin. With all the talk of "in and up"..."1K".."the hills"..."upslope"   once in awhile some humble pie is nice.  That I admit.