August Discussion/Obs

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, kdxken said:

How often do we get those in the summer?

They happen, just not this year...which is why we drought, regionally.

[metagraphica]

.60" from the 20 minute deluge and lightning show last night plus .01" from a stray shower earlier in the day.  .61" on the day and now up to 3.66" mtd.  A good start at breaking Stein's back.

[weatherwiz]

Friday could be pretty fun...especially western sections. Quite a bit of shear around. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Friday could be pretty fun...especially western sections. Quite a bit of shear around. 

BOX says you’re drunk 

Best 0-6km shear
is to the north but it does increase to 25-30 kt interior so can`t
rule out a few strong storms. However, marginal instability and poor
mid level lapse rates will likely limit overall severe threat

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Cocorahs from Bethel reported 1.06".  15 miles north in Andover, 2.85".   Big drop to Temple/Farmington, 0.62"/0.58".  A few miles east, I'm at 5th place with 0.19", though the 2-day totals for the 3 Franklin County spots are all in the 0.7"/0/.8" range.

Yeah big totals south of Bethel. Idk a lot about that area…unorganized territory of south Oxford?? Whatever that is got dumped on. A little area of 5-6” in there. 
 

0.02” final here.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BOX says you’re drunk 

Best 0-6km shear
is to the north but it does increase to 25-30 kt interior so can`t
rule out a few strong storms. However, marginal instability and poor
mid level lapse rates will likely limit overall severe threat

Wizzy right.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BOX says you’re drunk 

Best 0-6km shear
is to the north but it does increase to 25-30 kt interior so can`t
rule out a few strong storms. However, marginal instability and poor
mid level lapse rates will likely limit overall severe threat

25-30 knot bulk shear is sufficient for severe weather. If we were looking at widespread severe weather potential you'd want higher. Not saying this is a wild severe event but looks good for some more rain and thunderstorms with some risk for damaging wind gusts 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

25-30 knot bulk shear is sufficient for severe weather. If we were looking at widespread severe weather potential you'd want higher. Not saying this is a wild severe event but looks good for some more rain and thunderstorms with some risk for damaging wind gusts 

850 winds perk up too. Looks fine to me. NAM has decent lapse rates. 

[tamarack]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah big totals south of Bethel. Idk a lot about that area…unorganized territory of south Oxford?? Whatever that is got dumped on. A little area of 5-6” in there. 
 

0.02” final here.

North (Andover) of Bethel and south (very flashy Wild River at Gilead rose from 20 cfs to about 1,700, down under 600 now.)

Edit:  1,700 cfs is peanuts for the Wild River.  It reached 37,800 from Irene and 32,200 from the pre-Halloween gale in 2017.  Oddly, the great 1987 flood only reached 17,000 - maybe the watershed's snow was gone before the 3/31-4/1 downpour?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wizzy right.

DIT kneels before Wizzy…after kneeling before Scooter, and on and on. So much kneeling for the lad. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

850 winds perk up too. Looks fine to me. NAM has decent lapse rates. 

Yeah the NAM actually has a pocket of pretty decent lapse rates (at least compared to what we're used too). Given how it looks like the trough is still slightly amplifying as it moves across the region I wouldn't be shocked to see models increase shear a bit more either. That would also help with some better lapse rates. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

DIT kneels before Wizzy…after kneeling before Scooter, and on and on. So much kneeling for the lad. 

Guy likes to be on his knees….what can I say?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Guy likes to be on his knees….what can I say?

Frisky rev...

[dryslot]

39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah big totals south of Bethel. Idk a lot about that area…unorganized territory of south Oxford?? Whatever that is got dumped on. A little area of 5-6” in there. 
 

0.02” final here.

Bethel, Greenwood, Locke Mills, West Paris, So Paris, Norway, Oxford are the areas on Rte 26

[40/70 Benchmark]

This site is addictive.

Former OCMs: Where Are They Now? / Information / TWC Classics

[CoastalWx]

I worked with Dale Eck in my previous role. Great guy.

[weatherwiz]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This site is addictive.

Former OCMs: Where Are They Now? / Information / TWC Classics

This one is a classic> Swizzle stick  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This one is a classic> Swizzle stick  

Yea, Bob Strokes had to find a new line of work.

[CoastalWx]

 

[wkd]

14 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sweet. Thanks. I’m going to get a gauge to back up my electronic stuff. Hate guessing.

How can any weather enthusiast not have a 4" official rain gauge?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, wkd said:

How can any weather enthusiast not have a 4" official rain gauge?

Easy if rain isn't your thing...took me until this year.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Easy if rain isn't your thing...took me until this year.

or if you don't really have a good place to put it. 

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, wkd said:

How can any weather enthusiast not have a 4" official rain gauge?

Tbh..I only ever cared about winter storms or severe storms/hurricanes (snowfall amounts, hail, wind gusts)..and never about how much non-frozen liquid falls.

However, I may get one now that I'm a seasoned, grizzled amateur. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, wkd said:

How can any weather enthusiast not have a 4" official rain gauge?

Never really have been all that interested in the rain, but I’m realizing now it would be nice to have accurate records

[wkd]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Easy if rain isn't your thing...took me until this year.

They are also good in the winter for snow,sleet, rain  to get total precip.  Remove the funnel and inner tube. The tipping bucket gauge on my davis pro sucked in the winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, wkd said:

They are also good for snow to get total precip.  Remove the funnel and inner tube.

Yea, I don't really care about LE of snow...I'm not gonna pull a Dendrite and cook the funnel to get LE..I just record how much snow fell.

[CoastalWx]

I don't have one either haha. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't really care about LE of snow...I'm not gonna pull a Dendrite and cook the funnel to get LE..I just record how much snow fell.

Dendrite and Jspin just threw their Stratus through the window out of anger.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

or if you don't really have a good place to put it. 

After I move, I will get a wooden post, but for now, I strategically place it at the side of the house that is against the wind direction, so that it doesn't get any contamination from the roof. Seems very accurate, despite less than optimal placement.

[Typhoon Tip]

Re SNE Friday

From what I just looked at re Friday ...if the Euro fields are precisely realized there should be clusters with leading discrete cells exhibiting tendencies for rotation...first NE PA to eastern NY ...then propagating E from noon onward.  

I like the back tilt with height look that morphs through the region between 18z and 00z.

Over that time span, there is a subtle, perhaps crucial wind acceleration from the SW at 925 mb that emerges over the area, prior to the nose of 700 mb acceleration from a W direction on it's heels. 

That's a +d(shear) that is cyclonic in forcing. Probably why the Euro actually closes off a surface PP contour over eastern NE toward evening. From HFD-BED axis ... ( again, honing this 00z Euro look) the 0-3 km winds may kick more S in the boundary layer.

It's intriguing, but erhaps a negative is that these wind fields as described above are not appreciably strong.  We're talking 925 mb areal wind field averaging 15kts at 12z, maturing to 25kts between 18 and 00z that afternoon. The 700 mb punches in aft of that behavior (..nearing 18z), with an acceleration ranging from 15 to 35kts or so.

Nevertheless, suspending columns of air vertically through those mechanics likely folds over the lower level surface vectors. 

All this above appears to evolve after 12z thru 18z hosted sufficient surface heating.  RH at typical ceiling heights are in the 50% range as modeled. Generation of SBCAPE is on going before trigger time... particularly S of the VT/NH borders with Mass. But, that's not intended to mean clouds slammed shutout no go into CNE either...  500 and 300 mb during the morning don't suggest much of any cloud material at those elevated levels. The moisture loading is in the lower troposphere.