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August Discussion/Obs


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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like the mesolow is offering me up a 2 day screwgie. All of the good rain and convection is in the deep S flow.

He got me too...0.17" here so far. Comical at this point. We'll see what this batch brings but I have a feeling the best will be SW. 

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0854

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

401 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

 

Areas affected...Southern New England

 

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

 

Valid 232000Z - 240100Z

 

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms displaying occasional training

characteristics could produce localized flash flooding,

particularly in more heavily urbanized communities.

 

DISCUSSION...18Z surface analysis showed a frontal boundary draped

across southern New England while southwesterly 850mb flow

continued to intersect the boundary. 850-300mb mean winds are in a

fairly uniform SW flow pattern aloft as well, which favors the

potential for training thunderstorms. According to SPC RAP

mesoanalysis, PWs across southern New England ranges between

1.6-1.75" and MLCAPE is 1,000-1,500 J/kg as of 19Z. The front will

lift north gradually throughout the evening and the storms will

propagate northeast closer to the Boston metro area. MRMS

instantaneous rates have been above 2.5"/hr within the heaviest

storms, and FLASH CREST max unit streamflow has generated 200-600

cfs/smi in the Providence area. Local observations near Taunton

and west of Springfield have reported >1.5" over the last hour.

The latest HRRR shows several more hours worth of storms possible,

which given the persistent southwesterly flow intersecting the

front, gives reason to believe the potential for training storms

will linger into the evening rush hour. Localized flash flooding

is possible in the more heavily urbanized areas and in low lying,

poor drainage spots.

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