August Discussion/Obs

[Great Snow 1717]

45 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I would also add that thanks to the Internet you can now find communities of people who will reinforce any point of view, however stupid. Believe the world is flat? There's a vociferous community online who will feed you (bad) data in support of your view. Think AMC is going to a million? There's a community for that. Think Tupac is alive? Think Atlantic ACE will hit 300? There's a community. It's a vehicle for people to create their own subjective "truth." You can bury yourself in your own curated echo chamber.

It is OK to mention Kyrie Irving by name..

 

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

One of the cases where dual-pol may actually overestimate QPE by guessing tropical rainfall for too many pixels, but just blows legacy out of the water by being dynamic like that. There are several gauges over 6 and 7 inches (too many to discount in my opinion), and that's way closer to dual-pol than legacy's 1-2 inches.

With 103 reports, high end for Maine cocorahs, top is Hollis Center with 4.19".  2nd place is Buxton at 3.95".  Both towns are inland York County but #3 at 3.64" is Kennebunk.  Next is Standish, southern Cumberland, with 2.39".  I've no idea where the 6-7" was measured.
Had RA 9P-3A for 0.54" here, would've loved 3 times as much but no complaints, as the 2 cocorahs observers in Farmington had only 0.22".

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

With 103 reports, high end for Maine cocorahs, top is Hollis Center with 4.19".  2nd place is Buxton at 3.95".  Both towns are inland York County but #3 at 3.64" is Kennebunk.  Next is Standish, southern Cumberland, with 2.39".  I've no idea where the 6-7" was measured.
Had RA 9P-3A for 0.54" here, would've loved 3 times as much but no complaints, as the 2 cocorahs observers in Farmington had only 0.22".

Probably near Waterboro. 

[BrianW]

Where's the rain? Its blue skies and sunny here and to the SW.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I think there are also so many sources of spurious information out there that many people have lost the ability to separate the good from the bad. Critical thinking skills seem to be in serious decline.

With more data available than ever before, rigorous statistical analysis is imperative, and many statisticians will tell you that there has been a degradation of using data properly...even in published literature. You gotta watch for p-hacking and other incorrect use of data and it's not easy to do if you aren't actively looking for it all the time.

Even in very informal settings like on this forum, we will often use metrics and methods that are not very useful for comparing datasets. The one I probably mention the most as being flawed is "percent of average snowfall"...usually powderfreak and I make the comments on it. Comparing different locations using that metric is worthless by itself since different areas will have different season to season variance. It's not that weird to get 200% of mean snowfall in the mid-atlantic but it just does not happen in northern new england (or even parts of interior SNE....like ORH). So we need to normalize the datasets by using standard deviations, but using Stdev isn't very popular since most people aren't familiar with it outside of maybe learning about it in math class one time eons ago.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

With more data available than ever before, rigorous statistical analysis is imperative, and many statisticians will tell you that there has been a degradation of using data properly...even in published literature. You gotta watch for p-hacking and other incorrect use of data and it's not easy to do if you aren't actively looking for it all the time.

Even in very informal settings like on this forum, we will often use metrics and methods that are not very useful for comparing datasets. The one I probably mention the most as being flawed is "percent of average snowfall"...usually powderfreak and I make the comments on it. Comparing different locations using that metric is worthless by itself since different areas will have different season to season variance. It's not that weird to get 200% of mean snowfall in the mid-atlantic but it just does not happen in northern new england (or even parts of interior SNE....like ORH). So we need to normalize the datasets by using standard deviations, but using Stdev isn't very popular since most people aren't familiar with it outside of maybe learning about it in math class one time eons ago.

I just use percent to illustrate how far actual seasonal snowfall is from my forecast range.

[tamarack]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably near Waterboro. 

Saw a report of 8" from there on last evening's 11 PM news, but no others above 4".  However, after the TS that parked over CAR on August 17, 1981 dumped 6.67", mostly between 10 AM and 1 PM, I can accept seemingly anomalous reports.  12 miles to the south, PQI had only 1.37" and some town within 20 miles had <1/2".  Only the remnants of Edna (6.21") approach that CAR record - 3rd biggest in their 83-year POR is 4.08"

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People automatically assume a warmer world means more tropical issues....yes, there is a higher ceiling, but that ceiling will not always be reached. Always remember that the earth is all about balance and while a warmer world means more latent energy from which to tap, there are also other potential barriers to tapping said energy to the maximum extent, such as what you referred to RE the HC, and also potentially increased wind shear due to more development downstream in the Pacific.

I wrote ad nauseam about this years ago, on this forum, that I was not sure why GW necessarily means more. 

Folks likely don't remember - in general around here, that is true. Ha. Kidding but mainly because I was ineffective in communicating the hypothetical bases for my argument. 

Some may recall. All activity in the atmosphere is based upon restoring forces?   There is nothing else.  When A=B ...there is no gradient.   When A is > or  < than B  ...there is a force moving in the direction of the inequality arrow. 

That is weather.   If A=B (perfectly entropic) nothing happens.  I suspect Scott's question relating to HC expansion is on the right track, based in principle on the former quanta. 

The HC may in fact be interfering, because at a principle level it might be lowering the deltas ( < or >), wrt to the vertical sounding of the tropics. I've never circled back on that, but I've always wondered whenever I see mass media generated headlines... 

Tropical Meteorology ( a course in college): there is a typical initial condition sounding structure for vertical temperature and DP, from the surface to aloft, that TCs rely upon.  The temperature does not typically represent the unstable lapse rate.  The DP gradient between the bottom and the top, does.  That's the A potential to move toward B.  When the convective process is ignited ... usually by converging sfc vectors... the TCU sustains by way of huge adiabatic heat release.   A warm ocean ...definitely supplies an elevated DP source...  That's a A > B ( in principle). 

GW stores more WV ... so, we are elevating DP in the troposphere?  That would lower the gradient in the tropical sounding - it seems that is possible.

But it's not a black or white, all or nothing, either.  It could suppress frequency, but then should a favorable atmosphere transiently evolve over the GW lower troposphere and oceanic coupled boundary layer, it may mean more Category 23 histrionic hyper bombs.   The frequency side of the debate, I wonder also if that is being exaggerated by more finite detection, utilizing all these technologies that were unavailable to previous generations.   Not sure on that either... 

Recently I've connected with the notion that an expanding HC does not mean a more intense HC.  For all my harang re the subject matter over the last 10 years ... even I was less than clear on that aspect. But it is indeed true... The circulation eddy state of the HC is also weaker, as it spreads out and encompasses greater latitude.  That could be a destructive interference.. If the deeper layer easterly belt of wind beneath the HC ( within 15 or so deg of the Equator), is weakening, that increases the ambient shear potential. 

Between a warming theta-e world, and large scale mechanical changes ... et al, there's reasons to question the notion.

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

With more data available than ever before, rigorous statistical analysis is imperative, and many statisticians will tell you that there has been a degradation of using data properly...even in published literature. You gotta watch for p-hacking and other incorrect use of data and it's not easy to do if you aren't actively looking for it all the time.

Even in very informal settings like on this forum, we will often use metrics and methods that are not very useful for comparing datasets. The one I probably mention the most as being flawed is "percent of average snowfall"...usually powderfreak and I make the comments on it. Comparing different locations using that metric is worthless by itself since different areas will have different season to season variance. It's not that weird to get 200% of mean snowfall in the mid-atlantic but it just does not happen in northern new england (or even parts of interior SNE....like ORH). So we need to normalize the datasets by using standard deviations, but using Stdev isn't very popular since most people aren't familiar with it outside of maybe learning about it in math class one time eons ago.

I've ranted on this as well.  CAR is near the extreme in the Northeast.  When we lived in Fort Kent, I recall an ad from an equipment place that promised a 10% rebate of a snowblower purchase if the Caribou WSO had less than 50% of average snowfall.  Pretty safe offer, as they've never had below 50%    Their least snowy winter was a bit under 60" in 1943-44 while the long-term average is 115".  Even their biggest snow year - 198" in 2007-08 - is only 72% above that average.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Saw a report of 8" from there on last evening's 11 PM news, but no others above 4".  However, after the TS that parked over CAR on August 17, 1981 dumped 6.67", mostly between 10 AM and 1 PM, I can accept seemingly anomalous reports.  12 miles to the south, PQI had only 1.37" and some town within 20 miles had <1/2".  Only the remnants of Edna (6.21") approach that CAR record - 3rd biggest in their 83-year POR is 4.08"

It’s mostly dual pol estimated precip. That localized area from Waterboro to Biddeford. 

[tunafish]

59 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We managed 0.45" last night, Nothing like what fell in SME.

Managed to double my July/August to date total with 1.79" yesterday.  Needed it.  Not the 3-5" that fell in interior York but it's a dent in the Stein bucket nonetheless. 

[WeatherWilly]

Finally some overnight lows I'm the 50s around day 8. But still in the 80s in the daytime.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Managed to double my July/August to date total with 1.79" yesterday.  Needed it.  Not the 3-5" that fell in interior York but it's a dent in the Stein bucket nonetheless. 

I got my 3.65" plus in 90 mins with FFL on 07/27, We've had some other smaller events since as well so we're 2.49" for August.

000
NOUS41 KGYX 291453
PNSGYX
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033-NHZ001>015-300253-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
1053 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...Maine...

...Androscoggin County...
2 E Lewiston                 3.65 in   0830 PM 07/28   Trained Spotter
4 SE Poland                  3.50 in   1019 PM 07/28   Trained Spotter
Auburn Lewiston Munici       3.00 in   0830 PM 07/28   AWOS
Sabattus                     1.38 in   0857 PM 07/28   Public
1.8 W Lisbon Falls           0.60 in   0700 AM 07/29   COOP
Durham 0.8 S                 0.48 in   0800 AM 07/29   COCORAHS
Leeds                        0.10 in   0949 AM 07/29   CWOP
Turner                       0.10 in   0700 AM 07/29   COOP
Livermore                    0.03 in   0946 AM 07/29   CWOP

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Won't go too OT, but I think we have reached the point of diminishing returns with respect to technological gains for society as whole because its become a conduit for impulsivity and an unhealthy proclivity towards instant gratification. This is corrosive for both cognitive and social skills.

Yup...  

It's one in many "Fermi Paradox" explanations that are out there - using the FP to help elucidate the notion. As an extension of the bold, the a evolutionary process that made that reality what it is, effectively

                                                          ...annihilates the evolutionary process.   

The catch-22 is a stage most civilities in the cosmos have to successfully evolve through, without either degeneratively turning insular and wasting away, or ... blowing themselves to kingdom come.  

                                                         ...Most do not successfully evolve through that stage.

And that is why we don't see a cosmos lit up by the after glow of civilities.  I mean...there are other explanations for the FP, but in so far as what it means for us, humanity could very well be on the brink of either degenerative fade, or cataclysmic self-annihilation pathways to extinction.

The reason why is that, in the case of our species, we don't store moral memories across generations?  They are taught. When population is taught of only conveniences, the virtuosity in knowing how one's provinces come to be, become assumed - I would say entitled, but it really is more like 'unknowable' to consider otherwise. Before ... 150 years ago, the world was a realm where survival required most of daily attention and intelligence.  The alternative now? ... gratification like you say.  After a couple few short generations, the proclivities you call them are what people think of first.  

[ineedsnow]

Suns coming out now after a few sprinkles earlier.. some stuff trying to form in CT hoping for some rain here later on

[Ginx snewx]

Bummer another pool day

[Spanks45]

Snagged 0.03" from a random shower last night....based on radar trends, I assume not much today here in SW CT. 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Bummer another pool day

Heading up 395 though

[CoastalWx]

Pool day?

[Ginx snewx]

Nice cell heading to the Sherpa mountain guides. Congrats DIT

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pool day?

No?

[CoastalWx]

Congrats on a 2 min break of sun?

[dryslot]

Why would you need sun to go into the pool? Water is probably in the high 70's low 80's.

[Cyclone-68]

Nice storms firing up in eastern NY where the sun poked through 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pool day?

Everyday is a pool day in moosup. Just grillin and smilin…

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Everyday is a pool day in moosup. Just grillin and smilin…

I literally have a "chillin and grillin" t shirt on right now.  

[dendrite]

Up to 76F with quite a bit of sun so far this morning thanks to the NE flow behind that mesolow. It looks like the low level flow is piling up into SW NH and NE MA on vis...we'll see how that plays with convection later on.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats on a 2 min break of sun?

Over an hour but who is counting, again shower approaches. Then back to chillaxin and relaxin.

[Ginx snewx]

After this line passes we sun outs guns out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Has been socked in with low clouds all day here . Not a peek . 69.5 and dewy