August Discussion/Obs

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS hints at it. That's why I said "signs." I probably would not look in 546 thicknesses into NNE. LOL.

Yea I updated my post to say that it showed hints of one, though the GFS/GEFS are more drastic

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

GEFS, GFS OP do, and to a lesser extent the Euro OP

Though the EPS, GEPS don't really show much of a cooldown. EPS is more of a mild-down late next week

I use ensembles not op runs. Explains why Scooter and Runaway think big chill coming this weekend and next week 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I use ensembles not op runs. Explains why Scooter and Runaway think big chill coming this weekend and next week 

Like I said, kneel before Zod.

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not to say summer is over by any stretch, but these respites should grow longer and more frequent moving forward.

  Really.  Is the sun getting lower, too?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know. As a scientist, it's important to look at it from a holistic point of view. We are nearing record low ACE territory. Why shouldn't that be reported? That is a huge detail. It doesn't mean the Earth is not warming...but it might mean the Hadley Cell shifting could cause unfavorable conditions for TCs? That is not necessarily a bad thing from a damage cost/lives lost point of view.  The Pacific is mostly shut down too. Same with tornado counts. Those have been reduced. 

 

Of course shutting down the tropics could lead to other issues...but just speaking from a "everything will get wild and worse" point of view. 

People automatically assume a warmer world means more tropical issues....yes, there is a higher ceiling, but that ceiling will not always be reached. Always remember that the earth is all about balance and while a warmer world means more latent energy from which to tap, there are also other potential barriers to tapping said energy to the maximum extent, such as what you referred to RE the HC, and also potentially increased wind shear due to more development downstream in the Pacific.

[WxWatcher007]

Well, if the tropics continue to suck at least fall and football will be here.

I still think the peak will be good but we’ve been on a heater with tropical for a half decade now. That’s going to cool off at some point soon if it isn’t already here. I’ll be chasing 6” Midwest blizzards and -5° Moose Knuckle low temps if we continue winter futility here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not seeing any thing like that 

All visions all the time.

[BrianW]

That little cell over Long Island has been putting out some intense lighting all morning. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People automatically assume a warmer world means more tropical issues....yes, there is a higher ceiling, but that ceiling will not always be reached. Always remember that the earth is all about balance and while a warmer world means more latent energy from which to tap, there are also other potential barriers to tapping said energy to the maximum extent, such as what you referred to RE the HC, and also potentially increased wind shear due to more development downstream in the Pacific.

People don't realize that atmospheric conditions mean a hell of a lot more than SST anomalies. I don't care if the hurricane is over a 1 million sq mile Jacuzzi....if the atmosphere has any dry air or shear, good luck. RI for TCs is much more dependent on atmospheric conditions vs SSTs. Fact not opinion. 

[CoastalWx]

I look at SSTs as the last remaining ignition switch. Only if the atmospheric conditions are perfect......if you have the warm water, then lift off. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

People don't realize that atmospheric conditions mean a hell of a lot more than SST anomalies. I don't care if the hurricane is over a 1 million sq mile Jacuzzi....if the atmosphere has any dry air or shear, good luck. RI for TCs is much more dependent on atmospheric conditions vs SSTs. Fact not opinion. 

A warmer climate alters everything; it has a radius of impact that effects a myriad of factors that reverberates throughout the entire globe. Its not a linear conception.

[WxWatcher007]

It’s why I love tropical. So complex. I’m really only scratching the surface. It’s incredible.

Dry air/Stability has been a killer in the MDR this year. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A warmer climate alters everything; it has a radius of impact that effects a myriad of factors that reverberates throughout the entire globe. Its not a linear conception.

I just think it’s good to document this if indeed perhaps a warmer climate may make it hostile at times. We’ll need a bigger sample size though.
 

 But in today’s world, that won’t get reported. As usual everything is politicized and polarized and as Jim Murray says, we are living in the dumbest time of our history. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I use ensembles not op runs. Explains why Scooter and Runaway think big chill coming this weekend and next week 

90s LBW and beyond…got it. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s why I love tropical. So complex. I’m really only scratching the surface. It’s incredible.

Dry air/Stability has been a killer in the MDR this year. 

TUTTs have been really hurting both Pacific and Atlantic. Gonna need to watch more reruns of Josh’s adventures lol. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

TUTTs have been really hurting both Pacific and Atlantic. Gonna need to watch more reruns of Josh’s adventures lol. 

Yeah—that too. I’m not as well versed with the wave breaking and TUTT connection, but that hasn’t helped. As I said in the tropical forum, if a wave isn’t suffocated by dry air it’s getting thrown through the wood chipper of shear. I’d expect that to relax in September, but we’re staring down a shutout August which nobody expected so who knows. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just think it’s good to document this if indeed perhaps a warmer climate may make it hostile at times. We’ll need a bigger sample size though.
 

 But in today’s world, that won’t get reported. As usual everything is politicized and polarized and as Jim Murray says, we are living in the dumbest time of our history. 

We really are. It’s a shame too because Educational and factual info is more readily available than ever. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

TUTTs have been really hurting both Pacific and Atlantic. Gonna need to watch more reruns of Josh’s adventures lol. 

One of these days we are gonna see viral footage of the chaserdude just hanging from the porch of that little cabin in Bay St Louis lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We really are. It’s a shame too because Educational info is more readily available than ever. 

Won't go too OT, but I think we have reached the point of diminishing returns with respect to technological gains for society as whole because its become a conduit for impulsivity and an unhealthy proclivity towards instant gratification. This is corrosive for both cognitive and social skills.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

TUTTs have been really hurting both Pacific and Atlantic. Gonna need to watch more reruns of Josh’s adventures lol. 

I saw a great post on FB from a group I am in that highlighted that semi permanent ULL that has become a fixture over the NE ATL this season...it keeps feeding dry air and SAL down that channel of cooler SSTs to the SW, into the MDR west of Africa. This creates a narrow window for development because they need to strong/resilient enough to survive that hostile e Atl envt, while remaining weak enough to not be veered towards the N ATL graveyard.

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We really are. It’s a shame too because Educational and factual info is more readily available than ever. 

I think there are also so many sources of spurious information out there that many people have lost the ability to separate the good from the bad. Critical thinking skills seem to be in serious decline.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Won't go too OT, but I think we have reached the point of diminishing returns with respect to technological gains for society as whole because its become a conduit for impulsivity and an unhealthy proclivity towards instant gratification. This is corrosive for both cognitive and social skills.

 

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I think there are also so many sources of spurious information out there that many people have lost the ability to separate the good from the bad. Critical thinking skills seem to be in serious decline.

 

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of these days we are gonna see viral footage of the chaserdude just hanging from the porch of that little cabin in Bay St Louis lol

I know he’s losing his mind. There’s nothing chaseable. On the entirety of planet Earth.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I know he’s losing his mind. There’s nothing chaseable. On the entirety of planet Earth.  

Only so many promos for Typhoon Haiyan jackshacks in the Philippines on the next episode of Hurricane Man. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just think it’s good to document this if indeed perhaps a warmer climate may make it hostile at times. We’ll need a bigger sample size though.
 

 But in today’s world, that won’t get reported. As usual everything is politicized and polarized and as Jim Murray says, we are living in the dumbest time of our history. 

Yup , info and science gets put thru a lens Of cesspool and ratcheted up for effect , so good luck getting a useful honest appraisal and half the public will gravitate toward polar opposites , any persistent  political influence does to science what a blindfold does to the eyes when it comes to “adding value”

 

73 this am and clouds and some dews. Should be feeling decent out before rains as sun is thankfully gone today 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I think there are also so many sources of spurious information out there that many people have lost the ability to separate the good from the bad. Critical thinking skills seem to be in serious decline.

Yea. That’s the flip side to my point which you and Ray peeled off. I often think however that people have always lacked critical thinking skills (they’re not necessarily in decline) but that technology has simply exasperated it…and revealed who they are a-lot easier giving the illusion of heightened stupidity. Kinda like what the pandemic did to our socioeconomic infrastructure…exposing the warts, bringing them to the surface. 
 

anyway, OT. Back to stein Stockholm Syndrome and visions of HHH through December.

0.00” rain here yesterday. May need to whine today to achieve desired results. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. That’s the flip side to my point which you and Ray peeled off. I often think however that people have always lacked critical thinking skills (they’re not necessarily in decline) but that technology has simply exasperated it…and revealed who they are a-lot easier giving the illusion of heightened stupidity. Kinda like what the pandemic did to our socioeconomic infrastructure…exposing the warts, bringing them to the surface. 
 

anyway, OT. Back to stein Stockholm Syndrome and visions of HHH through December.

I think its both...technology has made it more readily apparent, and an overreliance upon said technology is exacerbating the issue.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. That’s the flip side to my point which you and Ray peeled off. I often think however that people have always lacked critical thinking skills (they’re not necessarily in decline) but that technology has simply exasperated it…and revealed who they are a-lot easier giving the illusion of heightened stupidity. Kinda like what the pandemic did to our socioeconomic infrastructure…exposing the warts, bringing them to the surface. 
 

anyway, OT. Back to stein Stockholm Syndrome and visions of HHH through December.

I would also add that thanks to the Internet you can now find communities of people who will reinforce any point of view, however stupid. Believe the world is flat? There's a vociferous community online who will feed you (bad) data in support of your view. Think AMC is going to a million? There's a community for that. Think Tupac is alive? Think Atlantic ACE will hit 300? There's a community. It's a vehicle for people to create their own subjective "truth." You can bury yourself in your own curated echo chamber.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I would also add that thanks to the Internet you can now find communities of people who will reinforce any point of view, however stupid. Believe the world is flat? There's a vociferous community online who will feed you (bad) data in support of your view. Think AMC is going to a million? There's a community for that. Think Tupac is alive? Think Atlantic ACE will hit 300? There's a community. It's a vehicle for people to create their own subjective "truth." You can bury yourself in your own curated echo chamber.

100

[dryslot]

We managed 0.45" last night, Nothing like what fell in SME.