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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Monday morning hangover and it’s not even football season. The 7/10 split looks like wct. Radar looks great EOR. 

Did you get some IPAs this morning from Kevin? Do you know where I live? I am squarely in between those two slugs moving in…one towards the cape and 1 towards RI

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Did you get some IPAs this morning from Kevin? Do you know where I live? I am squarely in between those two slugs moving in…one towards the cape and 1 towards RI

Gross. I had a “great tasting” beer at the Yard Goats game yesterday and couldn’t even finish it. We sober, you stein’ed over.

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2 hours ago, amarshall said:

Sunglasses are a must .

 

To take a 2 hr conversation into a 30 second explanation. They've weaponized least terns into forcing a total closure on driving on oversand for 70+ days in the summer while facing a total closure in the coming years.  Our kids are 4th generation of driving on duxbury beach. No one wants to kill or threaten birds.  We can exist with the birds while preserving our historical activity of oversand access.  

We're lawyered up.  They backed us into a corner and we're coming out swinging. 

 

Do the birds nest all over that beach?  In Maine, least terns and piping plovers (the latter are US threatened, Maine endangered) tend to nest together in relatively compact areas.  Where encountered, those areas in Maine are usually fenced and signed, leaving the rest of the beaches unaffected.  On state parks motor vehicles are prohibited on the beaches/dunes and dogs are excluded or required to be on leash, while 95%+ of park beaches are business as usual - attendance has been setting record highs over the past three years.  Thus, shutting down whole beaches would seem an overkill.  The less restrictive practices here have enabled piping plover pairs to increase from near 10 to almost 200 over the past 25 years.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

WCT shafted so far. We should complain more and debbie everything...seems like the optimal mental playbook that achieves the desired outcomes. 

Ya lol this is bad bad bad I really thought we were good to see a half inch plus.. 1 day of rain over a half this summer that was July 18th.. 

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I almost wonder if the modest convection signal percolating over the interior for Tuesday ( tomorrow) afternoon might be more successful.

This stuff this morning is pretty clearly over-running/elevated convection as the weak environmental 0-6km flow runs over that warm boundary extending seaward of the lower Jersey coast.  As it ignites along that sloped elevation (frontal interface), the elements/cells then lift N/NNW tantalizingly but spreads out and becomes more diffuse because they're raining from higher elevation as they come.  Fuzzier by the time they get toward the Pike.

That's pretty classic overrunning behavior - use to be called "strata form rains" where the cellular look becomes smeared..   However, the total manifold of this thing is similar to that ordeal last week that almost failed to develop a coastal at all - just enhanced NE winds for a day... In both scenarios, the governing kinematics are weak.  I'm not sure this has the nuts to 'fill in'.   Looks like fractured coverage with gaps ...I think that's what the Euro's been trying to signal. Frankly, the NAM ... despite it's overall synoptic uselessness, is having trouble tilling .5" on the FOUS grid while being inside of 24 hours... Hate to say, not a good sign.

Tomorrow, the warm boundary appears to get to about ...I dunno may SE VT over to PSM, but is losing identity as it does.  But that's when we may destablize. The sun more able to penetrate ...heating and bubbling towers.   

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