Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Scooter knows ? He beer. 00z top vs 12z bottom .. Trends … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Scooter knows ? I don’t forecast with emotion. Someone will get screwed, but some will get soaked, and not just western NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 I lost a tenth of an inch. Again you don’t use global model ensembles for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 I know most will be happy to hear the daily Stowe rains are here. Bone dry on the mountain but huge downpour for the village, and I’ve seen several cloud to ground bolts to the valley floor. Doesn’t even rain on the mountain anymore, only to keep the village grass as green as possible. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Here’s the HREF. Can see the meso low influence, but of course where and how it tracks will need to be determined. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I lost a tenth of an inch. Again you don’t use global model ensembles for this. So what should we use ? Mesos ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Here’s the HREF. Can see the meso low influence, but of course where and how it tracks will need to be determined. Ok so you’re using that as a forecast .. that’s fine. What if 00z shifts way NW like NAM and EPS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So what should we use ? Mesos ? I think the global ensembles for something starting in 18 hrs is not the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ok so you’re using that as a forecast .. that’s fine. What if 00z shifts way NW like NAM and EPS ? That’s not my forecast. What a salesman. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s not my forecast. What a salesman. Lemme ask you this .. if .. if.. if .. there were to be a 7/10 split screwzone .. where do you “envision” it being ? Tbliss area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lemme ask you this .. if .. if.. if .. there were to be a 7/10 split screwzone .. where do you “envision” it being ? Tbliss area? I envision this area as one of them. I feel like you have a decent shot of the meso low. Hopefully it’s more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I envision this area as one of them. I feel like you have a decent shot of the meso low. Hopefully it’s more widespread. My mental picture of qpf is NW Jersey up thru E NY , NW CT up to Hunch as 1-3” as Jack . I think everyone SE of there rains , probably in the .25-.50 range including this area . Probably one narrow screwgie under .25 east of the river to Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 I’m fully expecting a 7/10 split, or local screw zone here. A lot of these runs have the best consistently well west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Saw this earlier from the top of Wachusett mountain "...Only white man would be so careless as to make smoke in the open for everyone to see " 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: My mental picture of qpf is NW Jersey up thru E NY , NW CT up to Hunch as 1-3” as Jack . I think everyone SE of there rains , probably in the .25-.50 range including this area . Probably one narrow screwgie under .25 east of the river to Cape Congrats on 1-2”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lemme ask you this .. if .. if.. if .. there were to be a 7/10 split screwzone .. where do you “envision” it being ? Tbliss area? Stein has you beaten down. I can’t imagine you asking Will or Scooter this hypothetical in a winter storm. You usually are wondering where the jackpot zone might be and how much. Or where the highest wind damage will be… never wondering where the least damage might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Just now, powderfreak said: Stein has you beaten down. I can’t imagine you asking Will or Scooter this hypothetical in a winter storm. You usually are wondering where the jackpot zone might be and how much. Or where the highest wind damage will be… never wondering where the least damage might be. Stein has DIT hog tied. What a shame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Heh...18z NAM is in with a stunning drought correcting .12" at Logan... but at least it's got close to .6" at Albany -hey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 A buddy at mine in Auburn was under that slow moving street cleaner yesterday. His station recorded 1.61" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Stein has DIT hog tied. What a shame. You know as I think about it, maybe trying to find the lack of rain is consistent with trying to find the most exciting weather/damage. There is a vibe on here at times where it feels like folks are sort of rooting for dry because it’s more interesting. A half inch of rain per week right now is like getting a 2.4” and a 3.8” snowfalls that melt immediately but ruins futility….everything is dead already, fires burning, everyone “worked so hard” for it, might as well secretly hope it continues and see how damaging it can get? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Stein has you beaten down. I can’t imagine you asking Will or Scooter this hypothetical in a winter storm. You usually are wondering where the jackpot zone might be and how much. Or where the highest wind damage will be… never wondering where the least damage might be. Until I’m looking out the window at pouring rains.. I am not going to think it’s going to be inches of rain coming like these guys are forecasting on here . I do hope like I did last week that they are correct . Maybe this one is it. These warm frontal setups like this love to favor the orographic areas from NW NJ to WNE up into S NH. That’s just how I envision it. I could see the Cape getting next to nothing. What do you think ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Until I’m looking out the window at pouring rains.. I am not going to think it’s going to be inches of rain coming like these guys are forecasting on here . I do hope like I did last week that they are correct . Maybe this one is it. These warm frontal setups like this love to favor the orographic areas from NW NJ to WNE up into S NH. That’s just how I envision it. I could see the Cape getting next to nothing. What do you think ? It’s convection is what I think. Someone gets 1-3” and someone gets a quarter inch. Haven’t looked at it to be honest. Had some damage with that storm in town, heading home there’s some trees and wires down. You know it’s Stowe because it’s Mass and NY plates, ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Congrats Tolland on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s convection is what I think. Someone gets 1-3” and someone gets a quarter inch. Haven’t looked at it to be honest. Had some damage with that storm in town, heading home there’s some trees and wires down. You know it’s Stowe because it’s Mass and NY plates, ha. Don’t even remember what a storm is . Last one was early or maybe mid Julorch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Thank the lord we didnt get bent over and Steined for winter ... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thank the lord we didnt get bent over and Steined for winter ... Yea. Bring the juice when it matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: I know most will be happy to hear the daily Stowe rains are here. Bone dry on the mountain but huge downpour and I’ve seen several cloud to ground bolts to the valley floor. Doesn’t even rain on the mountain anymore, only to keep the village grass as green as possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Congrats 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Happy fall folks.. looking like October out there. Glad we don't live there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Good! "But not all hope is lost for this year’s colors, said foliage expert Jim Salge, who pens an annual forecast in Yankee Magazine. While droughts make the leaves turn earlier and quicker, “counterintuitively, it can create a really brief but bright and vibrant season,” Salge said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now