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August Discussion/Obs


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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I haven't been in the region over the last week, but ... prior to that, for the longer haul of June thru mid Augu... I don't recall the DPs being very high - thus, not a very "humid" summer.  June was cooler than normal ( ...if by  relativity but I think it was in the scalar values), and July and so far August are even more so above normal in terms of absolute value. So, the summer as a whole is likely to end above normal in temperatures - that's easily measured. But there have been a lot of a 95 days with DP settling down to 58s.

It's tough to run aridity in the soils and then celebrate drought histrionics both concurrently within a DP rich environment.    Just a refresher course ...  DP is a thermodynamic temperature intrinsic with the presence of water.  Drought is the absence of that particular component.  

So, ... conceptually a humid summer is not supported;  pretty sure we'll find the DPs have not been anomalously high as well - but that's not a declaration. Just a guess  

There’s no way those charts with hours of dews would support a humid summer (at least relative to normal).  I don’t know where one finds those but entering like mid-July they were bottom barrel for high dews.  Second half of July definitely helped with hours above 65F dews.

No mixing out up here.  Looks like most away from the ocean are seeing dews in the 50s down in Mass now.  We know FIT is too low, but mid-50s.

Up this way it’s more humid and can see the moisture pooling NW in the St Lawrence River Valley towards Montreal.

461E6000-9202-4310-A760-543AABFAACF6.gif.f1204e0eb32ae19e385c23cf305ca7a3.gif

 

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile, lowest ACE to date in the ATL in 34 years. 

..mm hm.. .and I was wondering to self this morning, if we can get through the next 10 days without realizing one of these GFS buckshot attempts, would this Aug be a candidate for low monthly record? 

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Lance Bosart ( UofAlbany) gave a presentation which attempted to link active autumn hurricane years to stronger Greenland polar vortex tendencies (+NAO) during immediately ensuing winters.  

I saw the presentation... I want to say it was given at the SNE storm conference back in the aughts, but it may predate that.  The AMS/New England one up in NYS back in 1996, but that may have been convective focused now that I think about it.  Bosart's (et el) was based both in part statistically, and a-priori/experience ... ( which I guess really implies 'responsibly anecdotal' in the latter sense) 

The basic theoretical framework is that re-curving cyclones feed latent heat ...reinforcing the l-wave spatial-temporal distribution, in which the PV coherency emerges -   

It makes intuitive sense..  The baroclinic instability would theoretically enhance whenever episodic heat plumes deliver into a region that is right next door to a heat sink AO domain/Ferral easterly circulation manifold at higher latitudes.  It's huge potential vorticity ...realized by storm genesis.

Therefore, the seasonal leading behavior/proficiency may serve as a means to predict the NAO index modes during ensuing winter. 

The problem is, when I search the web/archives for any papered work, it's always leading to N Pacific ... But I was there. He talked about the N Atl and the PV there in this context.

I can think of counter-point/arguments too... Like, winters are long above 40 N, whereas the Atl TC stops that activity by late October ( typically...), such that it's forcing would surely be washed out by the pummeling maelstrom of Pac loading forcing the N/A pattern - given time.  So it may be more useful earlier in seasons.  I mean I'm not sure ... just conjecture there.  It could also be ( and related to school I happen to agree with) that it is an index reinforcrer, but not a drive....  When the Pacific --> N/A --> +NAO, and the tropics are delivering, that is a constructive interference, and vice versa.  

He's emeritus at this point, but is lauded as a world-renown theoretical synoptician. I mean this isn't some influencer's opinion. ha. 

 

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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Speaking of the tropics, what's up with these 6 year interval of impactful TC's in the northeast? :lol:

1815-1821.  1938-1944.  1954-1960.  1985-1991. 

Yeah it’s been known and discussed for quite some time going back decades actually.

The idea is that for whatever reason there’s some 30 year return window for that kind of behavior. 

I’m not sure if anyone et al has formally researched any sort of correlation versus causality but looking at those spreads it does kind of suggests that there is some sort of periodicity involved. Faux platterns can emerge in nature sometimes and given longer periods of times prove to be random, as well. 

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10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can envision the bulk of the good  rains moving over ENY and NW CT up to Hunch area . SE of there it’ll probably rain but may not be beneficial. We’ll see 

NAM big shift NW like Euro with heavy amounts . Hopefully just noise but def a disturbing trend river east . 

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It’s a convective model that shifts every run. They’ll be two jacks. Eastern NY and western NE is one of them. Then another probably with meso low. 
 

Also SE Ma and especially  cape cod will get a second round later tomorrow night. Might be the Cape’s best chance. 

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