powderfreak Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I haven't been in the region over the last week, but ... prior to that, for the longer haul of June thru mid Augu... I don't recall the DPs being very high - thus, not a very "humid" summer. June was cooler than normal ( ...if by relativity but I think it was in the scalar values), and July and so far August are even more so above normal in terms of absolute value. So, the summer as a whole is likely to end above normal in temperatures - that's easily measured. But there have been a lot of a 95 days with DP settling down to 58s. It's tough to run aridity in the soils and then celebrate drought histrionics both concurrently within a DP rich environment. Just a refresher course ... DP is a thermodynamic temperature intrinsic with the presence of water. Drought is the absence of that particular component. So, ... conceptually a humid summer is not supported; pretty sure we'll find the DPs have not been anomalously high as well - but that's not a declaration. Just a guess There’s no way those charts with hours of dews would support a humid summer (at least relative to normal). I don’t know where one finds those but entering like mid-July they were bottom barrel for high dews. Second half of July definitely helped with hours above 65F dews. No mixing out up here. Looks like most away from the ocean are seeing dews in the 50s down in Mass now. We know FIT is too low, but mid-50s. Up this way it’s more humid and can see the moisture pooling NW in the St Lawrence River Valley towards Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Yeah. The first half of summer featured a lot of comfortable dew days. There were some really gross ones in late July and early Aug but overall I’m guessing near normal? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Good pool day setting up although our temp has dropped quite a bit. 75F now in the pool 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Happy fall folks.. looking like October out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Icon is just chefs kiss Stein here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Tomorrow will probably be a couple hundredths locally. Best is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Euro looks pretty good for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile, lowest ACE to date in the ATL in 34 years. ..mm hm.. .and I was wondering to self this morning, if we can get through the next 10 days without realizing one of these GFS buckshot attempts, would this Aug be a candidate for low monthly record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Notice some early leaf drop starting... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Happy fall folks.. looking like October out there. Yea, just commented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Driest as well That’s worrisome. 5 of the driest 20 on record over the last 8 summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Here we go . I was afraid we might see this continue shifting NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 They’ll be some good rains in SNE as the low develops and moves overhead. The globals aren’t going to resolve the convective nuances. Not everywhere will get it, but I think many areas get a decent drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Notice some early leaf drop starting... been going on for at least a month in my neighborhood. Driest I have ever seen it. I've mowed the lawn once since the end of june. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Lance Bosart ( UofAlbany) gave a presentation which attempted to link active autumn hurricane years to stronger Greenland polar vortex tendencies (+NAO) during immediately ensuing winters. I saw the presentation... I want to say it was given at the SNE storm conference back in the aughts, but it may predate that. The AMS/New England one up in NYS back in 1996, but that may have been convective focused now that I think about it. Bosart's (et el) was based both in part statistically, and a-priori/experience ... ( which I guess really implies 'responsibly anecdotal' in the latter sense) The basic theoretical framework is that re-curving cyclones feed latent heat ...reinforcing the l-wave spatial-temporal distribution, in which the PV coherency emerges - It makes intuitive sense.. The baroclinic instability would theoretically enhance whenever episodic heat plumes deliver into a region that is right next door to a heat sink AO domain/Ferral easterly circulation manifold at higher latitudes. It's huge potential vorticity ...realized by storm genesis. Therefore, the seasonal leading behavior/proficiency may serve as a means to predict the NAO index modes during ensuing winter. The problem is, when I search the web/archives for any papered work, it's always leading to N Pacific ... But I was there. He talked about the N Atl and the PV there in this context. I can think of counter-point/arguments too... Like, winters are long above 40 N, whereas the Atl TC stops that activity by late October ( typically...), such that it's forcing would surely be washed out by the pummeling maelstrom of Pac loading forcing the N/A pattern - given time. So it may be more useful earlier in seasons. I mean I'm not sure ... just conjecture there. It could also be ( and related to school I happen to agree with) that it is an index reinforcrer, but not a drive.... When the Pacific --> N/A --> +NAO, and the tropics are delivering, that is a constructive interference, and vice versa. He's emeritus at this point, but is lauded as a world-renown theoretical synoptician. I mean this isn't some influencer's opinion. ha. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Speaking of the tropics, what's up with these 6 year interval of impactful TC's in the northeast? 1815-1821. 1938-1944. 1954-1960. 1985-1991. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: Speaking of the tropics, what's up with these 6 year interval of impactful TC's in the northeast? 1815-1821. 1938-1944. 1954-1960. 1985-1991. Yeah it’s been known and discussed for quite some time going back decades actually. The idea is that for whatever reason there’s some 30 year return window for that kind of behavior. I’m not sure if anyone et al has formally researched any sort of correlation versus causality but looking at those spreads it does kind of suggests that there is some sort of periodicity involved. Faux platterns can emerge in nature sometimes and given longer periods of times prove to be random, as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Saw this earlier from the top of Wachusett mountain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Saw this earlier from the top of Wachusett mountain If that was this morning there was a structure fire near Wymans Pond in Westminster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: If that was this morning there was a structure fire near Wymans Pond in Westminster Was a little over an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: If that was this morning there was a structure fire near Wymans Pond in Westminster Huh, probably why I heard fire trucks all morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Was a little over an hour ago Maybe DIT is setting brush fires in the area 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can envision the bulk of the good rains moving over ENY and NW CT up to Hunch area . SE of there it’ll probably rain but may not be beneficial. We’ll see NAM big shift NW like Euro with heavy amounts . Hopefully just noise but def a disturbing trend river east . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 It’s a convective model that shifts every run. They’ll be two jacks. Eastern NY and western NE is one of them. Then another probably with meso low. Also SE Ma and especially cape cod will get a second round later tomorrow night. Might be the Cape’s best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM big shift NW like Euro with heavy amounts . Hopefully just noise but def a disturbing trend river east . Euro op didn’t shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Drought begets drought, obviously it's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op didn’t shift. EPS sure did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: EPS sure did I don’t use an ensemble that doesn’t know convection 24 hrs out. And eps didn’t really shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Maybe DIT is setting brush fires in the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Scooter knows ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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