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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d kill for that. This is absurd.

It is wild… that RT 2 corridor and south shore to Cape.  Can’t buy a drop.

Up here we got screwed today.  West slope of Mansfield into the Champlain Valley had 0.75-1.50”… sort of split me north.  West side of the mountain has had like 2-4” this week it feels like.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

See …

A, we can’t seem to ever get something like this to actually take place - even though we are frequently hinted that it’s possible 

image.thumb.png.bd55c2f95559438dea30ff3bd71451b7.png

B, it won’t seem to happen at the end of June - August 10 exits the solar max and we enter the solar transition season. So whatever maxes that could ever yield .. you lose some to seasonality. 

Ah well … may as well get that sort of thing going early sos folks be psycho babble prepared for winter…

I'd be willing to bet we see something like this happen sometime over the next decade .. 

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5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Worst signing in a long time.  Worse than Crawford, Pablo, etc.  Red Sox have gotten absolutely zero out of a guy making close to $30mm a year… for several years.

At least Hosmer doubles offensive production at 1st base, has worked with Casas as a mentor in the past, and can guide him.  And the Padres are paying all $44mm.

Nah, they got a WS...he was a pretty big part of that 2018 title.

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It is wild… that RT 2 corridor and south shore to Cape.  Can’t buy a drop.

Up here we got screwed today.  West slope of Mansfield into the Champlain Valley had 0.75-1.50”… sort of split me north.  West side of the mountain has had like 2-4” this week it feels like.

0.03" here, then watched the cell grow up (as usual, once they pass here) and pound the BGR area.

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11 hours ago, ma blizzard said:

I'd be willing to bet we see something like this happen sometime over the next decade .. 

But in order to take advantage of the sun,  June or early/mid July being the operative period of time...

It's a tl;dr posit of mine, but I believe these summers since the aughts of 2000, have been increasingly suffering "seasonal lag" - which is represented in an overactive mid level jets/westerly streams, claiming longer than the previous climate mode ( yup ... CC -related) would infer they should.   By June, the R-wave's should be less constructive/coherent - this year it looked like February on the polar-stereographic 500 mb non-hydrostatic hemisphere... in fact, vestiges of that into July.  I've seen this across multiple summers since 2010.   But it alters the early to mid summer pattern behaviors. 

In one such way, reducing the length of time a region really can spend in pattern biases ... We're losing the 'stagnation factor'.  Like, hot patterns collapse quickly... Cold ones role out and/or moderate almost while they are windy, and destroy MOS machine numbers, busting them too cold.   etc.. 

Model supposition: As an emergence of all that ... it has a way of sort of protecting mid latitudes from the highest sun/solar insolation time of the year, because it's thus less likely to come into a constructive interference with any ridge, like that above, that ultimately can't really make it through the model gauntlet. Thus, they ( the models) detect these big ridge nodes as physically plausible ( so to speak), but they don't tell you that it is less likely to survive the unknowable future perturbation(s) of the overactive summer jet.  The Pac NW last year/June, is/was an example of succeeding in overcoming... Which was as much an homage to the rarity in doing so.

As hot as as it has perceived to have been in areas of the country, we've left some on the table. As far as I can recall/tell, we still did not have/observe the "synergistic" heat wave this season.  Certainly not around here.    

But in fairness to practicality and realism... we're not likely to see a 300+ hour anything from any model source do much better than a blind man at the World Series of Darts without figuring out how to manipulate the quantum fabric of the continuum ..i.e., just control the weather - as a complete and utter failure of the tl;dr initiative ... that's probably more apt to be realized before model visions of that kind of extended outlook ever get very probablistically useful.  We're wasting carbon footprint by running the crays out that far... 

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