August Discussion/Obs

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Not well versed in SNE tropical climo but what's the latest on record we had a tropical system either make landfall (say NJ on north) or come close enough to bring significant impact? I would wager that our chances for a landfalling system probably diminish quite a bit moving into the fall because we start getting more frequent and stronger cold fronts so there would be a higher likelihood to deflect storms east. 

This is an interesting if not 'odd' question?

Because most years ...that does not happen

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Not well versed in SNE tropical climo but what's the latest on record we had a tropical system either make landfall (say NJ on north) or come close enough to bring significant impact? I would wager that our chances for a landfalling system probably diminish quite a bit moving into the fall because we start getting more frequent and stronger cold fronts so there would be a higher likelihood to deflect storms east. 

If we're talking strictly storms that made landfall but late, Sandy is right there for one of the latest. I see two unnamed storms in the 1800s (1861 and 1899) that made landfall in early November, but that's it. Even 1899 was more of an inland runner that passed through CT.

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... yeah - right.

I would wonder if 103 on September 7, might be the greatest climate relative standard deviation temperature ever recorded in New England. 

96 at CAR on 5/22/1977 might be a contender, along with Christmas Day in 2020 when they were 35° AN.

[BrianW]

I have spent my entire life (42 years)here on the shoreline of Long Island sound. The changes in tide heights and water temperatures has been drastic the last decade.

In the mid to early 90's I worked on some lobster boats out of Guilford and they had a thriving lobster industry. Catching a lobster in Long Island sound now is extremely rare. 

 

I think Ryan @CT Rain is from Guilford?

Both long-term annual and winter datasets are increasing at all stations. When all stations are averaged, from 1960-2020, the annual water temperature has increased by 11.27 percent, while the winter water temperature has increased by 15.24 percent. Moreover, the rate of increase for the winter water temperatures in the Sound is approximately 1°F/decade, which is currently above the global average of 0.32°F/decade (NOAA 2019). Likewise, seasonal bottom water temperatures have been slowly but steadily increasing throughout the Sound – from 1991-2020, winter has increased by 3.75 percent, spring by 4.39 percent, summer by 3.39 percent and fall by 4.58 percent. The overall mean from 1991 through 2020 is 37.21°F for winter, 49.08°F for spring, 67.87°F for summer, and 57.87°F for fall.

https://longislandsoundstudy.net/ecosystem-target-indicators/water-temperature/

 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... yeah - right.

I would wonder if 103 on September 7, might be the greatest climate relative standard deviation temperature ever recorded in New England. 

Low 70s at CON and BOS on New Year's 1876 has to be up there. And then the 90F on 3/31/98. We've done 100F+ before on 9/2/1953, but yeah, 103F 5 days later is another level.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

I was hoping 91L would produce and come close to the east coast still holding out hope but not looking good now.. on vacation to the 11th so I would go anywhere.. 

I think it will fish, but we should have a a pretty good idea by mid week.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Low 70s at CON and BOS on New Year's 1876 has to be up there. And then the 90F on 3/31/98. We've done 100F+ before on 9/2/1953, but yeah, 103F 5 days later is another level.

12/29/84 too....ORH actually hit 70F. I think lots of mid-70s in lower elevations. I think that warm spell was a little muted (relative to climo) in NNE, but it was ridiculous in SNE.

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, tamarack said:

96 at CAR on 5/22/1977 might be a contender, along with Christmas Day in 2020 when they were 35° AN.

Actually, Brian and Tam'  my statement wasn't worded the best way... sorry.

I was really thinking along the lines of September datasets, alone - relative to the history of September ...  I guess 'climate relative' didn't have enough context there. 

Obviously 70+ can register in December - we've seen that several times.  Those are pigs.  One doesn't have to be an accredited climatologist to see the aberrancy of 70 when it should be about 39.   1998 did it for several days in a balmy week.  As 2006 did a similar SE ridge domination...may have even been 60s in January from the same pattern persistence that year, prior to the Arctic Oscillation crash in the 2nd half of the month.   I also remember several single night wind swept southerly gales over the decades.  Those are not as rare in late autumn or even early winter as one may think ... with temps an eerie 71/69 just ahead of a ribbon -echo squall and strong cold front.   One of my top 5 favorite snow events of all time happened a week after such an experience back in 2003. 

Man... so much nostalgia it's hard to type ( admittedly)  ... but, it was a distinctive 3 stage epicosity.   The warm gale; the polar boundary intervals; 2 day lull --> 20" powder storm right down to the Sagamore Bridge ( when SSTs still hover in the 50s at that time of year no less). 

But it is an interesting question - what are the greatest standard deviations to those local seasons; yet more discretely, those months.  Because the first half of winter, the Eastern Seaboard is more likely to to experience a S transport warm event.  

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Low 70s at CON and BOS on New Year's 1876 has to be up there. And then the 90F on 3/31/98. We've done 100F+ before on 9/2/1953, but yeah, 103F 5 days later is another level.

Not New England, but NYC's 72/63 on 12/24/2015 is their greatest positive departure for any day +32.5), records back thru 1869.  The 4 major SNE sites were "only" 26-29° AN that day.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Not New England, but NYC's 72/63 on 12/24/2015 is their greatest positive departure for any day +32.5), records back thru 1869.  The 4 major SNE sites were "only" 26-29° AN that day.

I just want to vomit from those stats.

[tamarack]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/29/84 too....ORH actually hit 70F. I think lots of mid-70s in lower elevations. I think that warm spell was a little muted (relative to climo) in NNE, but it was ridiculous in SNE.

Wow!  70/55, and maybe the minimum is the more astounding.  Mean of 62.5 looks to be about 36° AN.

[tamarack]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually, Brian and Tam'  my statement wasn't worded the best way... sorry.

I was really thinking along the lines of September datasets, alone - relative to the history of September ...  I guess 'climate relative' didn't have enough context there. 

Obviously 70+ can register in December - we've seen that several times.  Those are pigs.  1998 did it for several days in a balmy week.  As 2006 did a similar SE ridge domination...may have even been 60s in January from the same pattern persistence that year, prior to the Arctic Oscillation crash in the 2nd half of the month.   I also remember several single night wind swept southerly gales over the decades.  Those are not as rare in late autumn or even early winter as one may think ... with temps an eerie 71/69 just ahead of a ribbon -echo squall and strong cold front.   One of my top 5 favorite snow events of all time happened a week after such an experience back in 2003. 

Man... so much nostalgia it's hard to type ( admittedly)  ... but, it was a distinctive 3 stage epicosity.   The warm gale; the polar boundary intervals; 2 day lull --> 20" powder storm right down to the Sagamore Bridge ( when SSTs still hover in the 50s at that time of year no less). 

But it is an interesting question - what are the greatest standard deviations to those local seasons; yet more discretely, those months.  Because the first half of winter, the Eastern Seaboard is more likely to to experience a S transport warm event.  

September-specific, the Farmington co-op recorded 99/78 on 9/23/1895, for 34° AN.  That day is the co-op's hottest mean temp and highest minimum for any date.  However, though the day's high is supportable, I think the data from the few nearby sites (LEW, Gardiner, Bridgton) with records that far back indicate the Farmington minimum is bogus, as the other 3 sites had lows near 60 that day.

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just want to vomit from those stats.

CDD on Xmas eve ftw.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will fish, but we should have a a pretty good idea by mid week.

 

agreed fwiw -

as of right now, I cannot find a guidance system that offers even wiggle-room arguments to the contrary.  Based on all those sources, whether in blend, or in sole depiction, there is 0 mechanical way to get any TC in that time range to affect the Eastern Seaboard.

Now ... for cane enthusiasts, all is not lost.  You still have the 144 ( give or take day...) hrs for the planet Earth to figure out how to modulate the entire circulation envelope from Japan to Greenland ...  'so you're tellin' me there's a chance'

 

[weatherwiz]

When long-term climate averages are calculated (such as temperatures or even precipitation (snowfall)) are outliers removed?

EDIT: I should be more clear...are outliers removed when calculating the AVG.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

September-specific, the Farmington co-op recorded 99/78 on 9/23/1895, for 34° AN.  That day is the co-op's hottest mean temp and highest minimum for any date.  However, though the day's high is supportable, I think the data from the few nearby sites (LEW, Gardiner, Bridgton) with records that far back indicate the Farmington minimum is bogus, as the other 3 sites had lows near 60 that day.

I saw CON 91, PWM 89, and BTV 87 for that date. Can't recall many days in recent times during the early fall where that trio was that hot and northern ME was still almost 10F warmer. I see Farmington has 100F for the day before as well. GYX has a missing low for 9/23 so there must be some questionable data.

[Typhoon Tip]

There is a way though ...

That soupcon of hyperbole I leveled above was meant more 'as is' and is tad exaggerated  

The NAO is however trying to slip negative, and the GEF mean/synoptic cinema up there does show moderate 500 mb h anomalies for about 7 days before the deep range entropic decay rings the world ( proving that it is useless to run it out that far -).

Anyway, yes the GGEM does dive a trough into the Lakes D10 to serve as a capturing device - should the NAO start exerting an influence more toward the western limb of the domain, it could prevent recurving - but it's like a REALLY small chance of all that. 

[ORH_wxman]

44 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Wow!  70/55, and maybe the minimum is the more astounding.  Mean of 62.5 looks to be about 36° AN.

Yeah I believe that is ORH's greatest daily departure for any day of the year....and I think the next closest departure is like 3F lower than that +36.

[BrianW]

42 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CDD on Xmas eve ftw.

Do you have any sources for CDD data?

I ran some numbers on my house cooling load this month and my numbers are showing the CDD's are close to double of HVN's average August CDD which would be unprecedented.

I'm at 390 CDD's with HVN's average being 228 for August. I will either exceed or come close to doubling the amount of CDD's here. 

[tamarack]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I saw CON 91, PWM 89, and BTV 87 for that date. Can't recall many days in recent times during the early fall where that trio was that hot and northern ME was still almost 10F warmer. I see Farmington has 100F for the day before as well. GYX has a missing low for 9/23 so there must be some questionable data.

GYX 1895?  That's a century before the WSO began reporting.  
Sept heatwave, 21-23, 1895:
Farmington  94/100/99
Lewiston     92/92/96
Gardiner     92/95/92
Bridgton     93/93/93
(also, NYC  95/95/97)

The Farmington co-op had an in-town location during the 1890s, and records make me think that summer maxima were boosted by the site.  The co-op has recorded only 14 triple-digit maxima since 1893, and half of them came 1893-97.  Five more came in 1911, four the well-documented blazing NNE heat of July.  The other 2 came in June 1944 and Hot Saturday in 1975.  There's no doubt that maxima have been reduced by the 1966 move to a location 1.5 miles north of town center.   (And I think encroaching trees have further modified maxima, as the co-op hasn't exceeded 95° since 1995.)

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

GYX 1895?  That's a century before the WSO began reporting.  
Sept heatwave, 21-23, 1895:
Farmington  94/100/99
Lewiston     92/92/96
Gardiner     92/95/92
Bridgton     93/93/93
(also, NYC  95/95/97)

The Farmington co-op had an in-town location during the 1890s, and records make me think that summer maxima were boosted by the site.  The co-op has recorded only 14 triple-digit maxima since 1893, and half of them came 1893-97.  Five more came in 1911, four the well-documented blazing NNE heat of July.  The other 2 came in June 1944 and Hot Saturday in 1975.  There's no doubt that maxima have been reduced by the 1966 move to a location 1.5 miles north of town center.   (And I think encroaching trees have further modified maxima, as the co-op hasn't exceeded 95° since 1995.)

I meant NWS GYX. Their NOWdata site lists Farmington as 100/65 and 99/M for 9/22-23 although I'm aware that the raw forms list 9/23 as 99/78.

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Do you have any sources for CDD data?

I ran some numbers on my house cooling load this month and my numbers are showing the CDD's are close to double of HVN's average August CDD which would be unprecedented.

I'm at 390 CDD's with HVN's average being 228 for August. I will either exceed or come close to doubling the amount of CDD's here. 

NOWdata section of all NWS pages.

HVN monthly CDD...

[BrianW]

49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NOWdata section of all NWS pages.

HVN monthly CDD...

Thanks. 

I just found this link from OKX. 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Wow. The record max 386 CDD from 2018 in your chart is almost certainly going be beat with 366 CDD month to date  according to this chart with 3 days left in the month.

Looks like 08/25 data is missing as well. 

My numbers of being close to double seem accurate. That also explains why everyone here has been complaining nonstop about their electricity bills..

[CoastalWx]

That airmass on the GFS later Thursday into Sat morning may pack a little punch from CNE on north. a sneaky shallow, but cool airmass for 36 hrs or so. Going to be PF's diurnal fetish maybe Saturday.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That airmass on the GFS later Thursday into Sat morning may pack a little punch from CNE on north. a sneaky shallow, but cool airmass for 36 hrs or so. Going to be PF's diurnal fetish maybe Saturday.

+4C 850s here Thu afternoon. Once the sun goes down that comfy 70F breeze will quickly be 50F and hoodies. Goofus is trying to get low 40s in here by midnight. Brief warmup and then another cold fropa Sunday before a Monday wedge event.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

+4C 850s here Thu afternoon. Once the sun goes down that comfy 70F breeze will quickly be 50F and hoodies. Goofus is trying to get low 40s in here by midnight. Brief warmup and then another cold fropa Sunday before a Monday wedge event.

Just hold off the wedge until Monday if at all.  

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just hold off the wedge until Monday if at all.  

The smooth stepdown into winter has begun.

[forkyfork]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

+4C 850s here Thu afternoon. Once the sun goes down that comfy 70F breeze will quickly be 50F and hoodies. Goofus is trying to get low 40s in here by midnight. Brief warmup and then another cold fropa Sunday before a Monday wedge event.

any record lows possible?

[forkyfork]

Just now, forkyfork said:

any record lows possible?

nvm i see con's records are in the 20s and 30s. lol

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

any record lows possible?

lol...serious question?