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August Discussion/Obs


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  On 8/16/2022 at 4:35 PM, ineedsnow said:

Lol idk if I ever seen models this bad this close in

 

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models tend to have more error in the summer versus winter with the shorter wavelengths and less baroclinicity. Add in convection offshore, a bit of a tropical influence on some models, and how small scale the system is and there's going to be a lot of jumping around. I have no expectations for this...just hoping for a decent drink.

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  On 8/16/2022 at 4:55 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

yeah not sure which run I was looking at but still decent. lbsw as someone mentioned

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Doesn’t really matter. Trends are to bring this all the way back to the river. I doubt anyone wants 5” for too much runoff and/or complaints switching from drought to basement flooding. 

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  On 8/16/2022 at 4:59 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Doesn’t really matter. Trends are to bring this all the way back to the river. I doubt anyone wants 5” for too much runoff and/or complaints switching from drought to basement flooding. 

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yeah its widespread general rain which is good. tough news for the drought twins

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  On 8/16/2022 at 4:59 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Doesn’t really matter. Trends are to bring this all the way back to the river. I doubt anyone wants 5” for too much runoff and/or complaints switching from drought to basement flooding. 

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There’s zero agreement to bring rain into CT. Couple do couple don’t . I’d even be nervous in RI . Messenger watching 

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  On 8/16/2022 at 5:04 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s zero agreement to bring rain into CT. Couple do couple don’t . I’d even be nervous in RI . Messenger watching 

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This ain’t a fast flow winter setup with long wavelengths though. There’s a ridge over NF and in the north atlantic to help nudge it west.

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  On 8/16/2022 at 5:25 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This ain’t a fast flow winter setup with long wavelengths though. There’s a ridge over NF and in the north atlantic to help nudge it west.

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There’s no baroclinic zone in summer.. it’s fighting dry air / low dews WNW flow on west side , and a lot of potential convection robbing moisture transport. In the winter this would be a slam dunk to get snow back to you . Summer totally different . I hope your forecast of soaking rains back to HFD is correct . Lord knows how badly we need it. I have my doubts , but we’ll see 

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  On 8/16/2022 at 5:30 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no baroclinic zone in summer.. it’s fighting dry air / low dews WNW flow on west side , and a lot of potential convection robbing moisture transport. In the winter this would be a slam dunk to get snow back to you . Summer totally different . I hope your forecast of soaking rains back to HFD is correct . Lord knows how badly we need it. I have my doubts , but we’ll see 

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But if it has some tropical characteristics, then there will be plenty of moisture....just maybe more compact.

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