August 2022 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

deadline for on-time entries 06z Monday August 1st. 

 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0       1.0         1.0      1.5     1.5        1.0       1.5      0.5

[bkviking]

DCA:  +2.2

NYC:  +2.2

BOS:  +2.5

ORD:  +2.7

ATL:  +2.6

IAH:  +2.4

DEN:  +2.0

PHX:  +2.0

SEA:  +1.3

[Tom]

DCA:  +1.7

NYC:  +1.6

BOS:  +1.6

ORD:  +1.5

ATL:  +1.4

IAH:  +1.8

DEN:  +1.4

PHX:  +1.9

SEA:  +1.1

[Rjay]

DCA:  +2.5

NYC:  +2.5 (+4.5 at ewr and +3.5 at lga)

BOS:  +3.5

ORD:  +3.0

ATL:  +2.0

IAH:  +3.0

DEN:  +3.5

PHX:  +3.0

SEA:  +1.7

[wxallannj]

DCA:  +2.1

NYC:  +2.4 

BOS:  +2.8

ORD:  +2.0

ATL:  +2.0

IAH:  +2.4

DEN:  +3.0

PHX:  +2.5

SEA:  +2.8

 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5       2.0      2.0       1.8      1.2      0.7        0.2     0.5      1.0

[Roger Smith]

+1.7 _ +1.8 __ +2.4 __ +1.0 __ +1.2 __ +2.4 ___ +3.0 __ +1.0 __ +2.5

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.2       0.9      1.1       -0.4    -0.6     0.5       1.5      -0.6     0.7

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:  +2.4

NYC:  +2.6

BOS:  +2.3

ORD:  +2.3

ATL:  +1.9

IAH:  +2.1

DEN:  +1.7

PHX:  +0.9

SEA:  +0.8

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1    +1.2     +1.4    +1.4   +0.9   +2.1     +2.2      +1.1    +1.6

 

Thanks Roger

[wxdude64]

LATE!!! 

DCA:  +1.7

NYC:  +1.8

BOS:  +2.1

ORD:  +1.6

ATL:  +1.4

IAH:  +1.9

DEN:  +1.7

PHX:  +1.2

SEA:  +0.3

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for August 2022

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

RJay ______________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 ___ +3.5 _ +3.0 _ +1.7

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +2.4 _ +2.6 _ +2.3 __ +2.3 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 ___ +1.7 _ +0.9 _ +0.8

BKViking __________________ +2.2 _ +2.2 _ +2.5 __ +2.7 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.3

wxallannj __________________ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.4___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8

Roger Smith _______________ +1.7 _ +1.8 _ +2.4 __ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +2.4 ___ +3.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5

wxdude64 _________________+1.7 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 ___ +1.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.9 ___ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +0.3

___ Consensus ____________ +1.7 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +2.1 ___ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +1.1

Tom _______________________ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.6 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 __ +1.1

DonSutherland1 ___________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 ___ +0.2 _ +0.5 _ +1.0

 

so_whats_happening ______ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.4 _ +0.9 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +1.1 __ +1.6

Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ____ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5

RodneyS __________________ +0.2 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 ___ -0.4 _ -0.6 _ +0.5 ___ +1.5 _ -0.6 _ +0.7

___ Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

______________________________________________

Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, IAH, DEN and SEA

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies and projections ...

 

_________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

12th ___ (anom 11d) ____ +2.9 _+5.2 _+6.3 ___+1.6 _-0.3 _+0.8 __ +5.1 _-1.7 _+0.7

22nd __ (anom 21d) ____ -0.1 _ +2.6 _ +3.9 ___ 0.0 _-1.2 _ -0.1 ___+3.1 _-2.2e_+2.1

30th __ (anom 29d) ____+0.8 _ +3.1 _ +3.6 ___+0.5 _-0.9 _-0.1 ___+2.9 _-1.5 _+2.3

 

12th __ (p anom 21d) ___ +1.7 _+3.5 _+4.0 ___+1.0 _-0.5 _+0.5 __ +4.0 _-1.5 _+1.5

12th __ (p anom 28d) ___+1.2 _+2.5 _+3.0 ___+0.5 _-0.5 _+0.5 __ +3.5 _-1.5 _+2.0

22nd __(p anom 31st) __ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 ___ 0.0 _ -1.0 _ 0.0 ___ +3.0 _-2.0 _+2.0

30th __ (p anom 31st) __+1.0 _+3.0 _+3.5 ___ +0.5_-1.0 _-0.2 ___ +3.0 _-1.5 _+2.5

 

end of month anoms ___+1.0 _+3.2 _+4.0 ___ +0.6 _-0.7 _-0.1 ___+3.2 _-1.1 _+2.6

 

12th _ The seasonal max updates are still in the July thread for now. Will move that over here towards the end of August, no recent changes other than NYC to 97F. Projections are based on gradually cooling regime in east, fairly static (continued rather warm except in PHX) further west. 

22nd _ The anomaly for PHX is estimated from -2.1 after 20 days and a probable -5 or so for 21st. The projections are mostly just extensions of current trends with the larger positive anomalies in the northeast likely to come under some stress from mostly near average temperatures ahead, western locations look likely to maintain trends. 

The seasonal max contest is still back in the July thread and has seen no further updates since NYC hit 97F earlier this month. Will probably just bring it over to September and start scoring it around first week. 

30th _ Anomalies updated, warmer in east. 

1st _ Final values have been posted, scoring will be adjusted where necessary by later today.  

[Roger Smith]

 

 

Final Scoring for August 2022

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA_west___TOTAL

 

Roger Smith _______________86 _ 72 _ 68 __ 226 __ 92 _ 62 _ 50 __ 204 __430__ 96_ 58 _ 98 __ 252 __ 682

RodneyS __________________ 84 _ 54 _ 42 __ 180 __ 80 _ 98 _ 88 __ 266__446__ 66 _ 90 _ 62 __ 218 __ 664

so_whats_happening _____100 _ 60 _ 48 __ 208 __ 84 _ 68 _ 56 __ 208 __416__ 80 _ 56 _ 80 __ 216 __ 632

wxallannj __________________78 _ 84 _ 76 __ 238 __ 72 _ 46 _ 50 __ 168 __406__  96_ 28 _ 96 __ 220 __ 626

DonSutherland1 ___________90 _ 76 _ 60 __ 226 __ 76 _ 62 _ 84 __ 222 __448__ 40 _ 68 _ 68 __ 176 __ 624

___ Consensus ____________ 86 _ 72 _ 62 __ 220 __ 82 _ 58 _ 56 __ 196 __416 __ 70 _ 54 _ 70 __ 194 __ 610

wxdude64 _________________86 _ 72 _ 62 __ 220 __ 80 _ 58 _ 60 __ 198 __418__ 70 _ 54 _ 54 __ 178 __ 596

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 72 _ 88 _ 66 __ 226 __ 66 _ 48 _ 56 __ 170 __396__ 70 _ 60 _ 64 __ 194 __ 590

Tom _______________________ 86 _ 68 _ 52 __ 206 __ 82 _ 58 _ 62 __ 202 __408__ 64 _ 40 _ 70 __ 174 __ 582

RJay ______________________ 70 _ 86 _ 90 __ 246 __ 52 _ 46 _ 38 __ 136 __382__ 94 _ 18 _ 82 __ 194 __ 576

Scotty Lightning __________100 _ 56 _ 40 __ 196 __ 92 _ 56 _ 68 __ 216 __412__ 56 _ 48 _ 58 __ 162 __ 574

___ Normal _________________ 80 _ 36 _ 20 __ 136 __ 88 _ 86 _ 98 __272 __408 __ 36 _ 78 _ 48 __ 162 __ 570

BKViking __________________ 76 _ 80 _ 70 __ 226 __ 58 _ 34 _ 50 __ 142 __ 368__ 76 _ 38 _ 74 __ 188 __ 556

______________________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

RodneyS has a mixed bag of results from coldest forecasts, wins for ATL, IAH and PHX, and losses for DCA and ORD where Scotty Lightning takes shared wins for both, along with so_whats_happening at DCA only and Roger Smith at ORD only. Normal also has a win for IAH.

For SEA, rather close finish between wxallannj (+2.8) and Roger Smith (+2.5), their math said 2.6 (mine said 2.7) so it's a loss-win outcome on this one.  DEN was the same story with the outcome (+3.2) giving RJay (+3.5) a loss and Roger Smith and wxallannj (+3.0) a shared win.

NYC, BOS are wins for highest forecasts of hudsonvalley21 (NYC +2.6) and RJay (BOS +3.5) .

__________________________________________________

Annual update to follow later today I hope. The scores are close so there won't be major changes.  

[Roger Smith]

===<<< __________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan - Aug 2022) _____________>>>===

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type.

With many scores similar in August, there was only one set of changes in ranks; RodneyS is now fourth and Tom fifth. Consensus has fallen to third place behind DonSutherland1, and Normal remained between 10th and 11th, and also there is a prorated score for Stormchaser Chuck (4154), based on 8/5 times actual score, and with that he would now fall just below the total of our 8th ranked forecaster. 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL

 

wxdude64 ______________553 _581 _589 __1723 __555 _589_ 456__1600_3323 __556 _632 _493 __1681 ____5004

DonSutherland1 ________ 634 _588 _572__1794__580 _540 _372__1492 _3286 __480 _648 _558 __1686 ____4972

 

___ Consensus ___________574 _584 _550 __1708__524 _570 _408__1512 _3210__584 _636 _539 __1759 ____4969

 

so_whats_happening ____532 _554 _584__1670__533 _574_ 412__1519 _ 3189 __ 548 _636 _576 __1760 ____4949

RodneyS ________________ 568 _512 _492 __1572__446 _626 _482__1554 _3126 __612 _654 _546 __1812 ____4938

 

Tom _____________________ 571 _587 _523 __1681__522 _545 _523__1590 _3271 __599 _547 _472 __ 1618 ____4889

wxallannj ________________508 _532 _524 __1564 __490 _518 _430__1438 _3002 __646 _604 _566 __1816____4818

hudsonvalley21 __________534 _586 _570 __1690__502 _524 _408__1434 _3124__522 _620 _502 __ 1644 ____4768

BKViking ________________ 566 _578 _530 __1674__456 _496 _384__1336 _3010 __596 _582 _514 __1692 ____4702

 

RJay _____________________536 _606 _588 __1730__477 _516 _396__1389 _3119 __574 _492 _489 __1555 ____ 4674

Scotty Lightning _________546 _534 _510 __1590 __470 _532 _450__1452 _ 3042 __512 _594 _420__1526____4568

_____ Normal _____________568 _502 _440 __1510 __484 _534 _420 __1438 _ 2948 __486 _548 _456__1490____4438

Roger Smith _____________ 474 _432 _334 __1240 __404 _436 _378 __1218 _2458 __582 _600 _573__1755____4213

Stormchaser Chuck (5/8)_334 _374 _367 __1075 __298 _ 414 _248 __960 __2035 __304 _373 _255 __932____2967

__ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 4747 total points. 

=========================================

Best Forecasts _ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 __ Jan

DonSutherland1 __________4*^__ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____3 ____1 ____2 __ Feb,May

___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0

so_whats_happening _____ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 1 __ Jul

RodneyS _________________ 1* ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1___ 2*___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ____ 0

Tom ______________________ 1^___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar

wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0

BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr

Scotty Lightning __________ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal ________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0

Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*____2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 4*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 3 ____ 2 __Jun, Aug

Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred eleven times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.)

(in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total).

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN)

So far, 55 of 72 forecasts qualify, 24 warmest and 31 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5. 

 

FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug __TOTAL (adj for ties)

 

Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _ 15-5 (13-5)

DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- ___ 9-0 (7.25 - 0)

RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 ___9-2 (7.5 -2)

Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- ___ 8-1 (7.5 - 1)

Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 6-0 (4.75 - 0)

RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1___ 6-1 (4.25 - 1)

____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 ___ 6-1

wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- ___ 5-0 (4.0 - 0)

so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 __ 3-0 (2.5 - 0)

hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 ___ 3-1 (2.0 - 1)

wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 ___3-2 (2.0 -1)

BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- ___ 1-0 (0.25 - 0)

Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0__ 2-0 (1 - 0)

===============================

(Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)

[Roger Smith]

Four Seasons contest __ summer 2022 portion _ June 2022, July 2022, August 2022

 

The table is arranged in order of total points for the first three-quarters of the four seasons contest.

 

____________________________WINTER __ Winter ______ SPRING _ Spring ____ SUMMER _ Summer

FORECASTER ______________ TOTAL ___ Points ______ TOTAL __ Points _____ TOTAL ___ Points _____ Contest Total

 

Don Sutherland 1 ____________1623 ______ 10 _________ 1962 _____ 7 ________1886 ______ 3 __________ 20

RodneyS ____________________ 1600 ______ 7 __________ 1868 _____ 5 ________1988 ______ 6 __________ 18

wxallannj ____________________1572 ______ 6 __________ 1646 ______ 1 _______ 2000 ______ 7 __________14

__ Consensus _______________ 1513 ______ 3.5_________ 1865 _____4.9 _______1960 ______5.0_________13.4

Tom _________________________ 1309 _______ 1 __________1973 _____ 10 ________1880 ______ 1 __________ 12

Roger Smith _________________ 1043 ______ 1 __________ 1413 _______1 ________2008 ______10 _________ 12

so_whats_happening ________ 1499 ______ 3 __________ 1770 _______3 _______ 1960 ______ 5 __________11

wxdude64 __________________ 1535 ______ 4 ___________ 1820 ______ 4 ________1884 ______ 2 _________ 10

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 1540 ______ 5 ___________ 1692 ______ 1 _________1920 ______ 4 _________ 10

RJay ________________________ 1351 ______ 1 ___________ 1952 ______ 6 _________1872 ______ 1 __________ 8

BKViking ____________________ 1467 _______2 ___________1762 _______2 _________1846 ______ 1 __________ 5

__Normal ____________________ 1173 _______ 1 ___________1630 _______1 _________1762 ______ 1 __________ 3

Scotty Lightning _____________ 1138 ______ 1 ___________1750 _______ 1 _________1878 ______ 1 __________ 3

Stormchaser Chuck __________ 674 (1/3) __ 0 ________ 1117 (2/3) __ 1 _________1176 (2/3) _ 1 __________ 2

============================================

Scoring is based on 10 for first place, 7 for second, down to 2 points for 7th and 1 point for anyone else who entered at least 2/3 of contests. 

Consensus and Normal can score decimal points if their totals are between two forecaster totals 2 to 10, and the decimal is based on the position relative to those forecasters. 

The top three remain in their previous order.