CheeselandSkies Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 SE MN cluster has an interesting motion, on the radar loop it seems to be surging alternately SE and then almost due E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 4 hours ago, janetjanet998 said: IF the current storms over NE IL become the WAA wing of that MN complex ..get your boats ready you can perhaps see weak signs of this starting on the visible (connecting clouds back into MN) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 304 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2022 DAY 1 VALID 1745Z SAT JUL 23 2022 - 12Z SUN JUL 24 2022 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER... ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN WHICH HAS DROPPED A GROWING FOOTPRINT OF 3-6" OF RAINFALL LED TO A TARGETED MODERATE RISK NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER, WHERE ONGOING RAINFALL AND RAINFALL LATER TODAY COULD EXACERBATE ISSUES. THE GAP BETWEEN THE BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY IN IL/IN AND WHAT'S INCOMING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHWEST IA IS NARROWING -- THERE'S INCREASING CONCERN THAT ANY GAP IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL, IF AT ALL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED TRAINING IN EITHER A GENERALLY WEST TO EAST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF AT LEAST THREE CONVECTIVE ROUNDS -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 HRRR kinds of breaks up the complex just after it pushes through Madison and then has a couple of discrete supercells at 02Z. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Does look very interesting for us in the calumet this evening wrt severe and flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 20Z HRRR at hour 1 has a lot more, and stronger storms at 21Z than there actually are. Complex really seems to be having trouble filling in to the south of that cluster now east of La Crosse. Discrete cell that tried to get going in north-central Iowa appears to be dying as it approaches Calmar. More capping than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 With the activity that is occurring, looks like a possible mesovortex taking shape SE of La Farge, WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 27 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Does look very interesting for us in the calumet this evening wrt severe and flooding I'm not sure. Seems like it could be on a downward trend by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 20Z HRRR at hour 1 has a lot more, and stronger storms at 21Z than there actually are. Complex really seems to be having trouble filling in to the south of that cluster now east of La Crosse. Discrete cell that tried to get going in north-central Iowa appears to be dying as it approaches Calmar. More capping than expected?Living and dying by the HRRR too much. This is how it goes with hot start CAMS.Regarding the latter portion, there is a fair amount of capping across IA. The t’storm that you referenced that was previously in N IA was undercut by surging outflow from the main cluster moving through the LSE area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Well, LOT seems to think the storms will be entering Chi town around 8 p.m. in their graphic rather than the wee hours near dawn tomorrow unless a new batch forms. Will be interesting to see how his plays out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Regarding the latter portion, there is a fair amount of capping across IA. The t’storm that you referenced that was previously in N IA was undercut by surging outflow from the main cluster moving through the LSE area. Northeast Iowa really whiffed on this one. They could get some good storms tonight, though, when the LLJ kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Detroit NWS expecting storms to stay along the I94, 96, and 696 corridors. 10-2am going to fun today got tomorrow off too can porch chase tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 We might barely see any rain out of this at this rate, let alone severe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Well, storms did fill in a bit and start to push south of due east across Dane County.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 3 hours ago, Indystorm said: Well, LOT seems to think the storms will be entering Chi town around 8 p.m. in their graphic rather than the wee hours near dawn tomorrow unless a new batch forms. Will be interesting to see how his plays out . I personally thought the guy that wrote that afternoon afd had a crack hit. But he's the pro. I just watch the radar. Would not be surprised to get hammered again around 4 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 LOT has confirmed 2 EF-0 tornadoes from this morning. One in Naperville and one in Crest Hill/Joliet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 frostfern might finally get the severe thunderstorm they've been wanting shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, Powerball said: frostfern might finally get the severe thunderstorm they've been wanting shortly. Will it be accompanied by rain though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Well, HRRR was partially right, with a southeast-moving supercell splitting off from the tail end of the complex and moving through Rock/Walworth Counties around this time. It doesn't seem to be able to ingest enough unstable surface-based inflow for a threat, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 This supercell dropped 1.25" hail near Janesville Wisconsin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 I-96 special ahead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Did some digging into the morning tornadoes in LOT, and needless to say it's very unusual to get tornadoes around that time of day. The last time there was anything like that was back in 2011 (in Kankakee county). There have been many dozens of tornadoes in the LOT cwa since then, but none of them had occurred anywhere near 5-6 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 this has got to have some impressive nighttime lightning and possibly 1" hail near the city of Fond Du Lac 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Did some digging into the morning tornadoes in LOT, and needless to say it's very unusual to get tornadoes around that time of day. The last time there was anything like that was back in 2011 (in Kankakee county). There have been many dozens of tornadoes in the LOT cwa since then, but none of them had occurred anywhere near 5-6 am. Not quite up to date, but this graphic from LOT shows the general idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Convection rebuilding nicely again in Wisconsin NW of Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 32 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Convection rebuilding nicely again in Wisconsin NW of Milwaukee. Tornado warning with that, although it was just cancelled. A couple of funnel cloud reports earlier, but velocities never looked that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 11 hours ago, Baum said: I personally thought the guy that wrote that afternoon afd had a crack hit. But he's the pro. I just watch the radar. Would not be surprised to get hammered again around 4 a.m. confirmed. This mornings round pretty much guarantees green for the remainder of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Second round which rolled through around 2 AM was much more vigorous than the first; best middle-of-the-night lightning/thunder show I've had in a few years. Quite a few more wind reports around southern WI than with the first round, too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 LOT confirmed a third EF-0 from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Not only did debris clouds screw us out of heat today, but got just a trace of rain today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 During yesterday's storm this tree shed a huge limb. Completely blocked the road at the time. The street department came by and just cut the limbs off at the side of the car. Then today a tree service came by and cut the limbs off of the car. I think the car is totaled. Severely buckled. Tree is not in good shape either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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