weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2022 Author Share Posted July 20, 2022 Might be able to chase tomorrow. Have to bring my girlfriend to Boston for a neurology appointment which is at 2:45. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Might be able to chase tomorrow. Have to bring my girlfriend to Boston for a neurology appointment which is at 2:45. Hop on 93 north and get up to Manchester. Think you got to be north of border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2022 Author Share Posted July 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Hop on 93 north and get up to Manchester. Think you got to be north of border That's what I'm thinking...but I have to convince my girlfriend to go too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That's what I'm thinking...but I have to convince my girlfriend to go too Date night. Gaucho’s in Manchester 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: A cold front...actually more of a dewpoint front...will move eastward into this hot unstable air mass Thursday afternoon and evening. Wind fields aloft will strengthen as a weak mid-level trough moves through as well, with 30-40 kt of deep layer shear. Surface-based CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and MLCAPE of up to 1500 J/kg indicates plenty of instability. One thing lacking for severe weather will be relative lack of height falls. But model vertical motion is strong and the instability and shear should be sufficient for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms from as early as 11 AM or Noon and lasting into the mid-evening hours. The CAMs indicate potential for broken line segments with the main focus across CT and western and central MA, where updraft helicity swaths are focused. Damaging wind appears to be the primary severe threat, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in those areas. The least threat is in RI and southeast MA, where the majority of the day should be dry, but remnant showers and thunderstorms may move through late in the day or evening. I’d take this and run with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 5 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Date night. Gaucho’s in Manchester My high school girlfriend's birthday happened to be the date of the Pats Snow Bowl game (obviously didn't know what it would turn into at the time, but I digress). So I turned it into making her dinner at home so the game could be on. Gotta score some points and get what you want at the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 5 hours ago, weatherwiz said: That's what I'm thinking...but I have to convince my girlfriend to go too Put on the pants and lead the way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: My high school girlfriend's birthday happened to be the date of the Pats Snow Bowl game (obviously didn't know what it would turn into at the time, but I digress). So I turned it into making her dinner at home so the game could be on. Gotta score some points and get what you want at the same time. I was at that game, good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Hopefully NNE sees some interesting weather tomorrow. Not sure how it pans out SW/W NE, but the rain will be beneficial I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Some of the 3km sim soundings are damned impressive early this afternoon out ahead of the line. Maybe a little vbv but we're nitpicking. Unclear if there will be a trigger initially. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2022 Author Share Posted July 21, 2022 25 minutes ago, radarman said: Some of the 3km sim soundings are damned impressive early this afternoon out ahead of the line. Maybe a little vbv but we're nitpicking. Unclear if there will be a trigger initially. Yup that really is the biggest blemish today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2022 Author Share Posted July 21, 2022 If NAMNEST is right I may want to hang around Boston. I can convince my girlfriend by taking her to the Bruins shop and buying her a Charlie Mcavoy jersey. She's a Florida Panthers fan (probably 1 of 7) but she likes Mcavoy and has said she has a feeling I'll be buying her a Mcavoy jersey some day. I initially said no b/c if I'm buying a jersey for someone it's me...but this may be worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: If NAMNEST is right I may want to hang around Boston. I can convince my girlfriend by taking her to the Bruins shop and buying her a Charlie Mcavoy jersey. She's a Florida Panthers fan (probably 1 of 7) but she likes Mcavoy and has said she has a feeling I'll be buying her a Mcavoy jersey some day. I initially said no b/c if I'm buying a jersey for someone it's me...but this may be worth it. NAMNEST has higher dews guessing thats's whats causing better convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 NWS point and click has removed t-storms from my forecast completely. Lol can’t win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: If NAMNEST is right I may want to hang around Boston. I can convince my girlfriend by taking her to the Bruins shop and buying her a Charlie Mcavoy jersey. She's a Florida Panthers fan (probably 1 of 7) but she likes Mcavoy and has said she has a feeling I'll be buying her a Mcavoy jersey some day. I initially said no b/c if I'm buying a jersey for someone it's me...but this may be worth it. About 90% Chance it’s not worth it near Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Man…Montreal must be the Canadian version of Oklahoma City edit: only in terms of storms of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2022 Author Share Posted July 21, 2022 HRRR has been pretty consistent with some decent activity in Connecticut. You can tell though how the lack of forcing is a bit problem because it doesn't really sustain the activity. Good CAPE and decent lapse rates help get things going but lacking the forcing to keep everything going. Kinda like pulse-type but not necessarily as shear is sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: If NAMNEST is right I may want to hang around Boston. I can convince my girlfriend by taking her to the Bruins shop and buying her a Charlie Mcavoy jersey. She's a Florida Panthers fan (probably 1 of 7) but she likes Mcavoy and has said she has a feeling I'll be buying her a Mcavoy jersey some day. I initially said no b/c if I'm buying a jersey for someone it's me...but this may be worth it. Save the gas and order the jersey online. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: HRRR has been pretty consistent with some decent activity in Connecticut. You can tell though how the lack of forcing is a bit problem because it doesn't really sustain the activity. Good CAPE and decent lapse rates help get things going but lacking the forcing to keep everything going. Kinda like pulse-type but not necessarily as shear is sufficient. Hope so. I am near IJD. I am generally far enough NW that we definitely get more Tstorm activity than the coast, but am I far enough West to get in on this today and tonight? Hard to say. Forecast this morning looked less enthusiastic than it did yesterday, which is not a shocker given this year so far. They are saying IJD will be about the dividing line between haves and have not chances today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2022 Author Share Posted July 21, 2022 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Save the gas and order the jersey online. Have to go to Boston anyways for my girlfriend's neurology appointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2022 Author Share Posted July 21, 2022 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: Hope so. I am near IJD. I am generally far enough NW that we definitely get more Tstorm activity than the coast, but am I far enough West to get in on this today and tonight? Hard to say. Forecast this morning looked less enthusiastic than it did yesterday, which is not a shocker given this year so far. They are saying IJD will be about the dividing line between haves and have not chances today and tonight. It's also possible the HRRR may be overstating it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Just now, weatherwiz said: It's also possible the HRRR may be overstating it Idk but I like the HRRR in general for summer events. Isn’t that why the HRRR was made? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 nice to have the Goes-16 1 minute data online... If you stare it long enough you might convince yourself a TCU is developing this afternoon https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso1&product=vis 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 minute ago, radarman said: nice to have the Goes-16 1 minute data online... If you stare it long enough you might convince yourself a TCU is developing this afternoon https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso1&product=vis getting some nice looking clouds around here already reminds me of a Florida morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: NWS point and click has removed t-storms from my forecast completely. Lol can’t win RI and SE MA has never been a thunderstorm haven. Yes you do get them sometimes, but many years I remember only getting 2 good storms the whole year. I noticed a huge difference when we moved to Interior CT. I feel like, In a long term sense, the line dividing haves and have nots is drawn from Colchester CT almost directly to Woonsocket, or even Millville…and runs NNE from there but I am not as sure about where it sits in MA because I’m less familiar, except to say Braintree is a no-no. Inland RI and Inland SE MA see noticeable favor for snowfall compared to the coast. But I’m afraid that for thunderstorms, the rules are more strict and involves more of an East/West factor than the snow line does. With snow usually the south coast always is screwed, but Boston might do OK! But with thunderstorms, not so easy, those storms will be long-dead before they get anywhere near Boston. And sometimes even the south coast is favored for Tstorms compared to Providence county, if you are far enough west. I would be Southbury CT is always better than Providence Country RI for Tstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Idk but I like the HRRR in general for summer events. Isn’t that why the HRRR was made? Either that or to sniff out the messenger shuffle 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front crossing the central Appalachians, with a lead pressure trough extending southward roughly along the Champlain/Hudson Valleys. A steady increase in the CU field is noted, as temperatures warm into the low 80s resulting in widespread 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. A gradual increase in storm development is expected over the next couple of hours, as additional heating/destabilization occurs. Updrafts will be aided by favorable speed shear, amidst moderately strong/roughly unidirectional flow with height on the southeastern side of the southwestern Quebec upper low. As such, storms will become increasingly capable of producing damaging wind gusts -- initially in a more localized manner but become more widespread with time as storm coverage increases and convection grows upscale locally into small clusters/lines. Initial WW issuance is expected within the next hour, extending from the eastern New York into New England. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said: Man…Montreal must be the Canadian version of Oklahoma City They do get a lot of thunderstorms up here. I feel like even here there are a lot of days I’m seeing stuff move across S.Quebec. And if you’ve ever driven up there, it’s as flat as Oklahoma and huge miles long fields. Moisture pooling up the St Lawrence River Valley giving them a solid jolt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Severe thunderstorm watch is up https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MAZ004&warncounty=MAC027&firewxzone=MAZ004&local_place1=Hubbardston MA&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Watch&lat=42.4804&lon=-71.993#.Ytl1gRYpDDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 479 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2022 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-027-220000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0479.220721T1540Z-220722T0000Z/ MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now