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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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47 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I like the trajectory of what’s coming from AQW. Up to 0.55” here.

Is that the cells from the city? I did like it. But now it looks like it might pass us to the NW. 

Need something to pop up south of that stuff to Ensure it won’t miss.

I don’t know if we are talking about the same thing cuz I don’t know that abbreviation and can’t find it by google.

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2 hours ago, BrianW said:

The lightning out on the sound today has been insane. I think someone said they saw 400 strikes a min at one point.

Screenshot-20220718-191309-Chrome.jpg

:blink:
Who claimed they witnessed 6.67 CG discharges per second …?

I don’t believe there are any natural physical processes on Earth capable of creating that kind of electrodynamic power … even if it were physically possible for human eye to parse out what’s going on and when, which is also not possible at ~ 7 bolts/S

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I like the trajectory of what’s coming from AQW. Up to 0.55” here.

Narrow band but someone is going to get some sustained rain-rates in the larger Concord area as it curls ENE?

Given the moisture levels/dew/lift... no trouble precipitating today out of this sky.

animate.gif.b04efbeb4b7e9835769c604d828fcd2b.gif

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

:blink:
Who claimed they witnessed 6.67 CG discharges per second …?

I don’t believe there are any natural physical processes on Earth capable of creating that kind of electrodynamic power … even if it were physically possible for human eye to parse out what’s going on and when, which is also not possible at ~ 7 bolts/S

I have personally seen storms that must have approached that out west (Kansas, Nebraska, etc), with certainly more then 7 discharges/sec, sometimes the whole updraft is alive with multiple constant lightnings... But not all are CGs, its mostly intracloud, 7 CGs/sec is pushing it, and in any event you need really good ML lapse rates for that kind of thing and we never ever get that here. But I suspect its possible elsewhere.

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9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

:blink:
Who claimed they witnessed 6.67 CG discharges per second …?

I don’t believe there are any natural physical processes on Earth capable of creating that kind of electrodynamic power … even if it were physically possible for human eye to parse out what’s going on and when, which is also not possible at ~ 7 bolts/S

That was the stroke rate reported by lightningmaps.org (using the blitzortung.org detection network) for the storm over northern NJ at one point yesterday when the storm was extremely active.

It was not claimed to have been witnessed by eye by a human observer on the ground.

 

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23 minutes ago, radiator said:

That was the stroke rate reported by lightningmaps.org (using the blitzortung.org detection network) for the storm over northern NJ at one point yesterday when the storm was extremely active.

It was not claimed to have been witnessed by eye by a human observer on the ground.

 

Lol Tip

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9 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Today was trash

ehhh I think there needs to be expectations with these type of setups and just convection in general. Due to the nature of convection and processes involved I don't think you can ever classify severe events as a bust if they don't pan out (perhaps with exception of what the SPC designates as a high risk setup). 

In this setup (and similar set ups) the risk for severe weather is low. The risk for a widespread severe weather event is as close to zero as you can get without saying zero. You're really only tracking and looking for the potential of one or two cells which are going to become mature enough to utilize all the ingredients. 

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42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh I think there needs to be expectations with these type of setups and just convection in general. Due to the nature of convection and processes involved I don't think you can ever classify severe events as a bust if they don't pan out (perhaps with exception of what the SPC designates as a high risk setup). 

In this setup (and similar set ups) the risk for severe weather is low. The risk for a widespread severe weather event is as close to zero as you can get without saying zero. You're really only tracking and looking for the potential of one or two cells which are going to become mature enough to utilize all the ingredients. 

yeah, the expectations were it would be meh.  It lived up to the potential

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thursday, I dunno.....probably some stronger storms but nothing sticks or to me. 850 winds hood, but mid level winds meh.

Starting to look at it in a bit more detail but yeah shear isn't anything crazy...it's adequate (and heck...sometimes that is better than overwhelming shear lol). 

But one thing that sort of sticks out to me is heights look to remain neutral or rise slightly through the day? The main shortwave lifts ENE and is pretty far into Canada. Never good for us 

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27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Starting to look at it in a bit more detail but yeah shear isn't anything crazy...it's adequate (and heck...sometimes that is better than overwhelming shear lol). 

But one thing that sort of sticks out to me is heights look to remain neutral or rise slightly through the day? The main shortwave lifts ENE and is pretty far into Canada. Never good for us 

Yep. Will be juicy with high dews so I'm sure a few stronger storms. But I'm not particularly wow'd by anything.

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11 hours ago, ct_yankee said:

I have personally seen storms that must have approached that out west (Kansas, Nebraska, etc), with certainly more then 7 discharges/sec, sometimes the whole updraft is alive with multiple constant lightnings... But not all are CGs, its mostly intracloud, 7 CGs/sec is pushing it, and in any event you need really good ML lapse rates for that kind of thing and we never ever get that here. But I suspect its possible elsewhere.

On one of our visits to DEC (July 2011) we had grandstand seats for 15 minutes of perhaps 100/minute strikes, looked like all CG.  The storm was 5+ miles to our south, and the thunder came as a drum roll rather than individual booms/rumbles.  Even the local folks were impressed.  We got our share 3-4 hours later, garden variety lightning but 3" RA in 2 hours.

With tor warnings in SNH and S. Maine, still haven't heard if funnels reached the ground.

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I had fun with the steady and badly needed rains yesterday.

The late nite storms certainly did weaken didn’t they, because I never woke up.

Hope for some crackling storms ahead in coming days. 2021 was a much stormier summer so far, maybe because of anomalous ocean temps? They look warmer than average now however, so it must just be the pattern. 

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19 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

That tornado warning in S NH last night kind of came out of left field, no? Far away from everything else going on at the time 

It looked nasty in NW MA and then developed the couplet in VT. It's hard to tell out there since they are so far away from all of the beams.

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50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It looked nasty in NW MA and then developed the couplet in VT. It's hard to tell out there since they are so far away from all of the beams.

My coworker lives just SE of Keene and she said it was pretty tame. Definitely some thunder and lightning but winds were a nonfactor where she was.

but yes, radar for this entire area can be deceiving.  Sometimes the precipitation is much heavier than it looks on radar and sometimes it is much lighter. 
Hell, Greenfield is 30+ miles in every direction from any official weather station, never mind radar. 

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