Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 heh I dunno - This looks like an EF4 1::1000 year tornado outbreak event in the absence of this dumpster overcast, in which case, it is a very common local climate case scenario of epic waste of a 1::1000 year event ... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and New England this afternoon through early evening. ...New England/Mid-Atlantic States... The region will be influenced by a low-amplitude shortwave trough and speed max today, with moderately strong mid/high-level winds noted in regional 12z observed soundings as far south as roughly the Pennsylvania/Maryland border vicinity. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon along and ahead of a surface cold front including near a pre-frontal trough. Pre-frontal showers and residual cloud cover persist particularly from New Jersey/eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England, but gradual destabilization and an erosion of boundary layer inhibition is occurring especially across southern New England late this morning and midday. Even with lingering residual cloud cover, the corridor of strongest destabilization this afternoon should largely parallel the I-95 general vicinity from Virginia into southern New England, where MLCAPE may reach/exceed 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes will generally range from a supercell-supportive 40-50 kt over New England to around 25-30 kt southwestward into Virginia/eastern West Virginia, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will nonetheless support pulse/multicell-related wind gust potential. Severe/locally damaging wind gusts will be the most common severe risk (almost exclusively) overall, but a tornado cannot be ruled particularly across southern New England where deep-layer shear and low-level shear/SRH will be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh I dunno - This looks like an EF4 1::1000 year tornado outbreak event in the absence of this dumpster overcast, in which case, it is a local very common local climate case scenario of epic waste of a 1::1000 year event ... . I feel like we get EF2+ conditions 2-3 times a year. But they are always screwed up by cloud debris or lack of a trigger. So they ultimately end of up being 1:1000 year events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 NYC and SNH getting decent storms, have seen this act before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and New England this afternoon through early evening. ...New England/Mid-Atlantic States... The region will be influenced by a low-amplitude shortwave trough and speed max today, with moderately strong mid/high-level winds noted in regional 12z observed soundings as far south as roughly the Pennsylvania/Maryland border vicinity. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon along and ahead of a surface cold front including near a pre-frontal trough. Pre-frontal showers and residual cloud cover persist particularly from New Jersey/eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England, but gradual destabilization and an erosion of boundary layer inhibition is occurring especially across southern New England late this morning and midday. Even with lingering residual cloud cover, the corridor of strongest destabilization this afternoon should largely parallel the I-95 general vicinity from Virginia into southern New England, where MLCAPE may reach/exceed 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes will generally range from a supercell-supportive 40-50 kt over New England to around 25-30 kt southwestward into Virginia/eastern West Virginia, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will nonetheless support pulse/multicell-related wind gust potential. Severe/locally damaging wind gusts will be the most common severe risk (almost exclusively) overall, but a tornado cannot be ruled particularly across southern New England where deep-layer shear and low-level shear/SRH will be stronger. This is my hope: ” but gradual destabilization and an erosion of boundary layer inhibition is occurring especially across southern New England late this morning and midday.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: NYC and SNH getting decent storms, have seen this act before. Congrats Long Island? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 But why do we always get the clouds and junk and others don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 A real t-storm day here. Pounding rain with frequent flashes. Nothing severe but maybe more in the pipeline this afternoon. 73/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, rimetree said: A real t-storm day here. Pounding rain with frequent flashes. Nothing severe but maybe more in the pipeline this afternoon. 73/71 Nah... once per diem during transitioning fronts is the NE allotment ... you're all done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Wouldn’t be summer if NYC wasn’t about to get manhandled by yet another storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, Whineminster said: But why do we always get the clouds and junk and others don't? We live downstream of where it all begins and we seldom get EML's in here to provide a cap and erode crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 34 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The 3Km NAM is a masterclass in how we miss all of these storms and end up with basically nothing. Storms miss to the north, and then develop to my southwest and slide off the coast. amazing. it's a Jeter Downs "pattern" swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 We may actually get a few hours of good heating. Nothing developing behind the garden sprinkler moving through CT. POU looks like they're reporting mostly sunny 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Watch out!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 So what are the chances of any severe storms maintaining their strength until they reach my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Hodographs are forecast to become more straight as the afternoon progresses, however, this is something to watch which we lacked last week. If any mid-level mesocyclone becomes established there would be a higher than usual potential for a tornado today. Given the favorable low-level parameters (shear/CAPE/LCL's) low-level vortex could become elongated and interact with mid-level cyclone and voila...TOR 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 This is reminding me of last week anyway... Right down the convective wall lining up down the N shores of L.I. ...robbing everywhere N of there sun by way of farting their anvils down wind in a hyper velocity mid level flow that can only be explained by CC ... f us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is reminding me of last week anyway... Right down the convective wall lining up down the N shores of L.I. ...robbing everywhere N of there sun by way of farting their anvils down wind in a hyper velocity mid level flow that can only be explained by CC ... f us IDK...I think this is actually better overall than last week. We got some decent clearing coming in quickly. While that LIS anvil blowover is giving us clouds now that is moving ENE. I have a feeling around 3-4 we're going to start popping supercells in the HV and they move east and eventually form a line across central MA/CT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: IDK...I think this is actually better overall than last week. We got some decent clearing coming in quickly. While that LIS anvil blowover is giving us clouds now that is moving ENE. I have a feeling around 3-4 we're going to start popping supercells in the HV and they move east and eventually form a line across central MA/CT. Agree, I think the later start time helps areas partially clear out/Heat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: IDK...I think this is actually better overall than last week. We got some decent clearing coming in quickly. While that LIS anvil blowover is giving us clouds now that is moving ENE. I have a feeling around 3-4 we're going to start popping supercells in the HV and they move east and eventually form a line across central MA/CT. hence the use of the term, '...anyway' as in, all things considered - we're not appreciably different than what transpired last week... But so far, last week outperformed this, by the way - least we had SC's straifing the region. We have better 0-3km mechanics... - yup. I give you that. We have a rapid pealing off the clearning that's probably going to mean more for Mass than CT, but yeah... That stuff is true. But last week there was a resulting convective wall down of LI just like now, and in both occurrence, ...there was sun robbing. It's comparable. It's not liked or wanted - but it is comparable. We'll see what the clearing does for us... It did also clear before too late last week, so even that bears resemblance. I'm also a little personally biased because my internal monologue has thought all weekend that today looked similar to last week, and then here we are with these next of kin observations bearing similarities... so tfwiw - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Looks like we're mixing out dews a bit with winds taking on a more W trajectory now at the sfc. With that any tornado potential is probably significantly reduced. And now we will get several TORs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like we're mixing out dews a bit with winds taking on a more W trajectory now at the sfc. With that any tornado potential is probably significantly reduced. And now we will get several TORs Nice! Keep up the good work my man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Not anticipating anything here. Stein has a death grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Light sprinkle just missed by one mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like we're mixing out dews a bit with winds taking on a more W trajectory now at the sfc. With that any tornado potential is probably significantly reduced. And now we will get several TORs there's a snarky comic angle to this day... It's 87/73 here where I am - although a brief sprinkle just passed with one distant rumble so it may be 82 or something... anyway, it's 90/73 in Boston. 90/73 ... --> do we have enough ?? what's wrong with this picture? most sites were all at minimum mid 80s min/70+ DP, at some point late morning... Tell me we are not caught up in a warming world when T/TD combo like that have to negotiate a way to nuke the mid levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 That showery area moving into EMA is definitely drying up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 doesn't look too promising up here for good convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 I think there is still some CIN in place which may explain the lack of additional development. would think though we should start seeing stuff pop quickly off to the West over the next 60-minutes. If that doesn't happen then it probably won't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 SE NH getting hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Storms also beginning to fire near the NY/MA border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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