WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Adding a visual to Wiz’s comment 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 NAMNST (3km NAM whatever the hell you want to call it) is quite wild today. I have very mixed feelings with this model, but when it goes wild I think you need to take note. Its output makes sense based on the parameters and setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 58 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ......much like the Bruins off season... Much like the Bruins & Patriots offseason and the Red Sox 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Full sun and destabilization is not really necessary when you are like 85/75 to start the day. heh When it's 68/62 at 10am, sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 It’s been half way between party sunny and cloudy here this morning. No idea what if any implications that’ll have for later today but can’t be terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 16 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats Eagle Lake Me on the Tor Nothing confirmed from CAR, but earlier they reported a cell with apparent rotation moving from just south of Deboullie to Winterville, the town just south from Eagle Lake, also a damage report - trees/powerlines down - on a side road in Winterville. Meanwhile, I'm watching the RA+ echoes diminish to lgt RA as they approach our area, maybe up to 0.2" in occasional showers, otherwise just muggly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Looking forward to whatever we get today down here in SE CT. Severe or not, I just hope we get some decent rain IMBY. Of note - 9 years ago today, July 25th, 2013 it was 58 degrees with rain and a few rumbles of thunder on the day. An interesting July anomaly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 There is some legit dewpoint pooling going on. LCL's have actually lowered quite a bit. 2000+ J/KG of MLCAPE with 45-55knots of bulk shear to go along with 150-200 m2s2 of effective helicity and 100+ m2s2 of sfc-500m helicity. If anything robust develops in that environment it could go to town. Have to watch southern VT/NH and western MA the next few hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 First severe warning up on the MA/NH border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Just now, weatherwiz said: There is some legit dewpoint pooling going on. LCL's have actually lowered quite a bit. 2000+ J/KG of MLCAPE with 45-55knots of bulk shear to go along with 150-200 m2s2 of effective helicity and 100+ m2s2 of sfc-500m helicity. If anything robust develops in that environment it could go to town. Have to watch southern VT/NH and western MA the next few hours The junk on the MA/CT line appears to be drying up, the stuff on the NY/VT line looks like the area to watch as you stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Just now, Modfan2 said: The junk on the MA/CT line appears to be drying up, the stuff on the NY/VT line looks like the area to watch as you stated Yeah that drying up is a good thing...but also a bad thing because latent heat release could act to further weaken the mid-level lapse rates a bit more but actually they looked to have steepened some. Makes sense for them to do so though as we do have CAA aloft in the mid-levels as the trough/subsequent height falls approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: First severe warning up on the MA/NH border. To the NW of me, as always lol. Oh well. Can hear thunder here at Devens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 It is oppressive. We better be able to squeeze a decent storm out of this atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: First severe warning up on the MA/NH border. getting thunder from that a good 20 mi. away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: To the NW of me, as always lol. Oh well. Can hear thunder here at Devens. We’re in the same boat lol. Maybe today things switch up and south of me gets the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Must be fun on the NH/ME coasts right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Whew boy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: getting thunder from that a good 20 mi. away sort of like watching a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model drive by without her waving to you.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Severe Watch coming soon. Was actually wondering if there would be debate for a TOR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: sort of like watching a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model drive by without her waving to you.. It's best to keep two hands on the wheel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's best to keep two hands on the wheel 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Severe Watch coming soon. Was actually wondering if there would be debate for a TOR Go Tor or go home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 With 3000 J/KG of MUCAPE and hail CAPE ~400-500 J/KG there may be some prolific CG's with stuff today...especially the more intense action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Got some rumbles from that storm here. That'll probably do it for here. Feel like when you miss out on the 1st one nearby you end up on wrong side of boundaries and get porked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 26 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Got some rumbles from that storm here. That'll probably do it for here. Feel like when you miss out on the 1st one nearby you end up on wrong side of boundaries and get porked. Same in Methuen. A few rumbles of thunder and nothing more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Million dollar question is how does the junk in Western/Central CT impact areas further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 29 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Got some rumbles from that storm here. That'll probably do it for here. Feel like when you miss out on the 1st one nearby you end up on wrong side of boundaries and get porked. More rumbles as another storm passes to my northwest. Maybe I can get a couple sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Million dollar question is how does the junk in Western/Central CT impact areas further east? This is where the bulk of activity is going to likely start and fire off. It does look like there may be some room to thin clouds out a bit and get some additional heating. CAMs still pretty inconsistent with how everything evolves which makes it tough. I'm still leaning towards widespread storms across Connecticut which may strengthen as they move towards E CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 The 3Km NAM is a masterclass in how we miss all of these storms and end up with basically nothing. Storms miss to the north, and then develop to my southwest and slide off the coast. amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The 3Km NAM is a masterclass in how we miss all of these storms and end up with basically nothing. Storms miss to the north, and then develop to my southwest and slide off the coast. amazing. It misses most of E MA, even up here and far NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now