weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Is it typical that NWS issues a large scale severe thunderstorm watch like this? We usually see some watches of that size each summer. Even sometimes see them stretch as far north as Maine, however, I think it's more typical to see separate watches as opposed to one giant watch box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: We usually see some watches of that size each summer. Even sometimes see them stretch as far north as Maine, however, I think it's more typical to see separate watches as opposed to one giant watch box. I always thought they were issued by the individual sites like BOX, ENX, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I always thought they were issued by the individual sites like BOX, ENX, etc ahhh...no the Storm Prediction Center is responsible for issuing the watches. The local offices take care of warnings. Local offices though do get input as to what type of watch (severe vs. tornado). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: ahhh...no the Storm Prediction Center is responsible for issuing the watches. The local offices take care of warnings. Local offices though do get input as to what type of watch (severe vs. tornado). Thanks Wiz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Everything has some broad rotation but just lacking sufficient instability to strengthen anything. Yep. Big time lightning with that much larger complex to the SW, but I'm not sure this'll get it done in maximizing tor potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yep. Big time lightning with that much larger complex to the SW, but I'm not sure this'll get it done in maximizing tor potential.. Friend down in NJ said it was wild...just loud cracks one after another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Clouds and the developing area of rain really killing things...then we have that cluster that developed in northwest New Jersey which will be moving into western Connecticut within a few hours. It's a nice looking cluster with tons of lightning) but it's probably at it's maximum intensity. Maybe some localized influences can work to tighten any rotation but the clouds/precip are yielding really crappy low-level lapse rates. Steeper low-level lapse rates would have gone a long way in additional parcel acceleration and yielded better (not necessarily in terms of numbers) low-level CAPE...better in the sense of it could be utilized more efficiently to assist with tightening couplets. It's almost impossible in these types of flows to get abundant sunshine across SNE... Cloud cover is usually fairly widespread. That being said, nature of the atmosphere is still decent for some severe events from northern NJ northeast into southwest CT. SPC meso analysis is highlighting southeastern NY into southwest CT for an elevated spin-up risk over the next couple of hours. Given low lcl's I would closely monitor any organized cells moving across that area? Could see a non-warned event or a late warned event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Friend down in NJ said it was wild...just loud cracks one after another The lightningmaps.org map was displaying rates in excess of 400 strikes per minute in that New Jersey storm - wow... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 this reminds me of that 6/1/10? event that crapped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Congrats Long Island Sound? Banner day for the fish lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, FXWX said: It's almost impossible in these types of flows to get abundant sunshine across SNE... Cloud cover is usually fairly widespread. That being said, nature of the atmosphere is still decent for some severe events from northern NJ northeast into southwest CT. SPC meso analysis is highlighting southeastern NY into southwest CT for an elevated spin-up risk over the next couple of hours. Given low lcl's I would closely monitor any organized cells moving across that area? Could see a non-warned event or a late warned event. Yeah I don't think it's really possible to get sufficient clearing in these type of setups. The only way really is when there is an advecting EML offering a stout cap and sufficient drying aloft. Agreed...conditions are still favorable for severe. This isn't going to be a widespread severe event and is a setup that typically produces widespread severe. It's all usually about whether one or two cells can maximize everything that atmosphere has to offer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 Flooding may be the biggest risk in southeast NY into Fairfield County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Just north of NYC must be getting demolished right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Deluge here currently in S ORH County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 Actually some of these signatures appear more divergent rather than rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 This thing is screwing everything up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Can’t wait for this rain to evaporate before it reaches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Can’t wait for this rain to evaporate before it reaches here the force field is strong down here. The ground was just dampened, but still 0.00 in the bucket. Edit: Radar does look decent for you - but we'll see if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: We usually see some watches of that size each summer. Even sometimes see them stretch as far north as Maine, however, I think it's more typical to see separate watches as opposed to one giant watch box. IIRC, it was a week ago this past Friday when there was a watch extending from southern WVA to north of Moosehead Lake. We got 0.02" of sprinkles from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This thing is screwing everything up What’s the best free site for cloud imagery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 minute ago, WhiteLawns said: What’s the best free site for cloud imagery? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: the force field is strong down here. The ground was just dampened, but still 0.00 in the bucket. Edit: Radar does look decent for you - but we'll see if it holds together. I’m going to lose it if we don’t get an appreciable slug on rain from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Thanks man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m going to lose it if we don’t get an appreciable slug on rain from this yeah I'm teetering on violence if we don't get anything soon. But for your sanity don't look at any of the Total Precip maps through Day 9. Most of the models are amazingly steadfast on Stein bending us over for the foreseeable future 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 storms rolling up 95 all day here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 at least it’s raining…..… ……a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: yeah I'm teetering on violence if we don't get anything soon. But for your sanity don't look at any of the Total Precip maps through Day 9. Most of the models are amazingly steadfast on Stein bending us over for the foreseeable future I could toss a match on my front lawn and ignite the whole neighborhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 All bark and no bite with this rain… barely raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: this reminds me of that 6/1/10? event that crapped out. 6/6/10? But no... other than the meh lapse rates, this is not that. Or maybe there was a totally meh event on 6/1/10 also that I'm forgetting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Looked like for a little bit some storms were trying to pop up in east central CT but those disappeared in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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