OceanStWx Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 MHT just gusted to 52 mph. LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: A bit of lightning to my W/NW as that line approaches. A little rain would help Got a drop, really died out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Should see a few pretty nasty storms today. Seems like extensive cloud cover and weak lapse rates will hold overall potential back a bit but if any cell can become mature enough and generate a strong enough updraft that can maintain...oof. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Should see a few pretty nasty storms today. Seems like extensive cloud cover and weak lapse rates will hold overall potential back a bit but if any cell can become mature enough and generate a strong enough updraft that can maintain...oof. If your chasing today head to RT 31 in Charlton Ma (just before old Dresser Hill ice stand); you can continue south on 31 to water tower in Dudley with great views east and south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: If your chasing today head to RT 31 in Charlton Ma (just before old Dresser Hill ice stand); you can continue south on 31 to water tower in Dudley with great views east and south Unfortunately I can't do much, if any, chasing today. I may get lucky and be able to do BDL after my dentist appointment depending on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 I think the tornado potential is rather low, but we should be able to see supercells early on in development but hodographs become more straight as opposed to curved as the day progresses (maybe some splitters?). DCAPE though running decently high though (800-1000 J/KG) so damaging winds is certainly the main hazard here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think the tornado potential is rather low, but we should be able to see supercells early on in development but hodographs become more straight as opposed to curved as the day progresses (maybe some splitters?). DCAPE though running decently high though (800-1000 J/KG) so damaging winds is certainly the main hazard here. Enough damage was done in the Rt 2 area of Mass near Orange/Warwick with straight line winds….Don’t need a spinner to make the trees thinner!! Lol! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Everything has just died or passed to the north and west of me and Hubster, hopefully today we'll get the blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Everything has just died or passed to the north and west of me and Hubster, hopefully today we'll get the blast Some rain would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Whopping 0.01" overnight, but at least it cooled it down before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Lakes region again! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 9 hours ago, OceanStWx said: MHT just gusted to 52 mph. LOL. yeah, it got breezy. lots of leaves and small branches strewn around the 'hood. no damage that I have seen as of yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Pretty good DCAPE values and steep 2-6kkm lapse rates present. There may be room for a good swath of wind damage today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Nice +TSRA right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Pretty good DCAPE values and steep 2-6kkm lapse rates present. There may be room for a good swath of wind damage today Will those lapse rates remain through the day, though? I like seeing DCAPE over 1k but I have to admit I’m still a little skeptical. Still think it’s active, but maybe not realizing today’s full potential. I’ll readily admit though that I’m far more in my wheelhouse with tropical than severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Will those lapse rates remain through the day, though? I like seeing DCAPE over 1k but I have to admit I’m still a little skeptical. Still think it’s active, but maybe not realizing today’s full potential. I’ll readily admit though that I’m far more in my wheelhouse with tropical than severe. As long as we don't get alot of crap we should be able to maintain those 2-6km lapse rates. Based on satellite we should be able to get some good pockets of heating which will help to steep low-level lapse rates as well. Thinking this is going to turn into a Pike South day. northern Connecticut on east may be best spot today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 No wind to speak of, but couple hours of constant TL and tropical esque downpours early this AM. 1.71" in Stratus and .39"in Davis--something aint right..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Poured here at Winni with some ocnl thunder. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 I don't see how all this sky junk will move out today in order to rock... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I don't see how all this sky junk will move out today in order to rock... When shear is as strong as it is you don't need full heating or max instability to generate severe weather. While the cloud cover will certainly be one factor negating a more widespread severe weather event it won't completely kill the potential. What we'll probably see today is a few small clusters or lines which produce a swath of damage each. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Definitely some patches of blue sky here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Modfan2 said: If your chasing today head to RT 31 in Charlton Ma (just before old Dresser Hill ice stand); you can continue south on 31 to water tower in Dudley with great views east and south That's where I'll be, it's 5 miles from my house. My go to spot, usually a few other cars up there during a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, northern-stream flow is becoming characterized by broadly cyclonic character across the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and Northeast, with the Great Lakes part being nearly zonal. This is in response largely to the presence of two dominant cyclones over Canada: 1. A long-lived gyre over the James Bay region, forecast to move eastward across northern QC. A shortwave trough over its southern sector is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the northern ON/QC border across northern Lake Huron and portions of Lower MI. This trough will pivot across southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley region today, with its southern fringe glancing the northern NY/northern New England area. A weaker, trailing vorticity lobe will move eastward from Lake Erie across NY this afternoon/evening, then weaken as it crosses New England. 2. A strengthening vortex digging southeastward from the SK/NWT border region across northern MB. Heights will fall across the Dakotas late in the period (overnight) as a basal shortwave trough approaches. In advance of that, a small shortwave trough -- initially apparent over southeastern MT/northeastern WY -- will move east-southeastward to central SD today, while weakening, then across southern MN overnight. At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a cold front from western NY across central OH, the lower Ohio River Valley, and MO Ozarks, becoming a warm to stationary front across southern KS to a low between LBL-GAG. By 00Z, the cold front should reach eastern New England, southern PA, eastern KY, western TN, then become a wavy/ quasistationary front over southwestern MO and southern KS. By 12Z, the front should extend across NJ to eastern KY, then quasistationary near its previous position across MO/KS. A separate cold front -- related to the trailing northern-stream cyclone over central Canada -- will move southeastward across the northern High Plains overnight, reaching from eastern ND to central WY by 12Z tomorrow. ...New England and northern Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form through this afternoon along/ahead of the surface cold front, near a prefrontal surface trough, and farther south over portions of the Virginias, over strongly heated higher terrain in the warm sector. An existing plume of clouds/precip and widely scattered embedded thunderstorms, from northern ME into PA, should continue to break up gradually on the north end this morning, permitting some destabilization in its wake, but also setting up localized to mesobeta-scale areas of differential heating that may aid storm initiation from midday into the afternoon as well. Scattered damaging gusts, and several severe/50-kt gusts, are possible with the midday/afternoon activity. A marginal/conditional tornado threat also may exist over northern areas, where low-level and deep shear will be the greatest under relatively maximized flow aloft. Instability generally will increase with southward/southeastward extent away from the early cloud cover, as well as between it and the front, under cooler air aloft. Meanwhile, boundary-layer moisture will remain favorable across the entire swath (i.e., surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F). This will offset modest midlevel lapse rates to foster a plume of MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg from northern VA and the Chesapeake Bay area, narrowing northeastward to the southern/eastern coastal areas of New England away from marine-layer influences. MLCAPE should diminish northwestward from there, but still may reach 500-1200 J/kg over ME, except for Downeast areas with onshore flow. Forecast effective- shear magnitudes range from a supercell-favoring 40-50 kt over northern New England to around 20-30 kt or less across central VA to eastern WV, though a more strongly-heated, deeply mixed boundary layer may develop in southern areas in support of pulse/multicell gust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: When shear is as strong as it is you don't need full heating or max instability to generate severe weather. While the cloud cover will certainly be one factor negating a more widespread severe weather event it won't completely kill the potential. What we'll probably see today is a few small clusters or lines which produce a swath of damage each. Yeah it just seems more conducive to line segments like you said, with a few embedded strong storms with minor rotation, versus those individual supercells we all want. we'll see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 25 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I don't see how all this sky junk will move out today in order to rock... I’m team today blows. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I’m team today blows. ......much like the Bruins off season... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 The HRRR I think can be tossed. Very inconsistent with how things unfold. Maybe it will get a better handle in the upcoming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 48 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I don't see how all this sky junk will move out today in order to rock... As of 930 it is completely cloudy in Methuen...Nine times out of ten that doesn't bode well for the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Already 2000 J/KG of MLCape region wide which is pretty remarkable for the time of day. Very tough to get MLCAPE values that high with weak mid-level lapse rates, but this is being compensated by dewpoints which are in the 74-77F range. We are pretty capped right now though which is very good, otherwise I think we would see lots of crap going up. With 45-55 knots bulk shear over the region and the high dews we don't need much heating to get things going. Solid height falls through the day and good shortwave support. May be able to see some widespread wind damage from CT into RI and E MA to the coast later on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Whineminster said: Everything has just died or passed to the north and west of me and Hubster, hopefully today we'll get the blast The line of showers that came through the Berkshires fell apart before it hit Greenfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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