weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Monday, July 18, 2022: Strong shear overspreading the region characterized by bulk shear values exceeding 30 knots and effective helicity values approaching 150-200 m2s2 along the warm front. A very moist low-level airmass characterized by dewpoints into the upper 60's is helping to yield modest CAPE values. With strong shear expected across the region through the day we'll see multiple opportunities for thunderstorms through the day. One this morning with the warm front and additional development over the course of the day. Given modest CAPE and strong shear (including directional shear) a few weak tornadoes and some localized damaging wind gusts are possible!!! Thursday, July 21, 2022: Potential for moderate instability and strong wind shear = wind damage threat!!! (More on this later) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 HRRR runs seem to be cutting back for this afternoon. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Probably going to see a lot of spinning today. Could get really interesting if we destabilize more than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 I just want some severe rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: I just want some severe rain. I put the hammock out in the yard yesterday. I want to tie myself to it and see how many times I can spin around when damaging winds blow through 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 western CT and western MA may be prime areas of focus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I put the hammock out in the yard yesterday. I want to tie myself to it and see how many times I can spin around when damaging winds blow through The only spinning around you will be doing.. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Anyone got a boat? Maybe some spouts over the Sound? Nice structure on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Anyone got a boat? Maybe some spouts over the Sound? Nice structure on radar. Persisting more to the E and SE than modeled, but no surprise as LLJ starts to increase along and south of the WF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 some encouraging satellite trends. We obviously aren't going to see widespread full out heating but there's going to be at least pockets of stronger heating. Really won't need much to make [low-level] CAPE skyrocket given dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Going to be hilarious if the convection on Long Island sound holds together and "jacks" RI/SE MA after they all complained about Stein last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: some encouraging satellite trends. We obviously aren't going to see widespread full out heating but there's going to be at least pockets of stronger heating. Really won't need much to make [low-level] CAPE skyrocket given dews. Looks like a 7/10 split with the rain now, Central CT to Central Ma might do ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 HRRR again becoming quite ominous later. Already seeing some pretty impressive 3km CAPE (given the shear). HRRR also showing MLCAPE potentially 1500-2000 later on. May have to see some adjustments with the 5% TOR in the next update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: western CT and western MA may be prime areas of focus. Would like to see a little clearing before getting too bullish in these parts. Maybe we get a window after like 1pm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, radarman said: Would like to see a little clearing before getting too bullish in these parts. Maybe we get a window after like 1pm? yeah have to see how far north that area of clearing can get. Hopefully we don't see a situation where the weak capping allows crap to keep developing. Encouraging to see the HRRR with successive runs at some potent storms moving through Connecticut. Monday's I do trivia in New Britain so maybe I can get some good action going into CT later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 ughhh quite a bit of precipitation explosion occurring. This may be focused along with secondary surge of higher theta-e air. Hopefully this crap and blow through and then we can start thinning the clouds out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 That same T-storm in Long Island sound seems like it’s been sitting there for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: That same T-storm in Long Island sound seems like it’s been sitting there for hours interesting to watch the radar returns wash out as they touch the south coastline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: That same T-storm in Long Island sound seems like it’s been sitting there for hours Have had some rumblings of thunder here the past couple of hours but the stuff over LI has had no interest in moving inland. Still have managed to pick up 0.35" though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Definitely some breaks in the clouds behind that stuff in the sound, at least there are here in HVN. Hints of blue sky... Every little hole in the cloud cover can make a difference on a day like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 Severe watch coming soon...unless local offices argue for a TOR Mesoscale Discussion 1508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Areas affected...parts of far northern VA...MD...eastern PA...northern DE...NJ...southern NY...western MA and CT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181618Z - 181815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southwest New England. The severe threat is expected to increase over the next couple of hours, and a watch will likely be needed for portions of the region. DISCUSSION...Areas of clearing from northern VA into eastern PA/NJ have allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s at midday. This has allowed weak to moderate destabilization to occur amid 70s surface dewpoints. Further north into the Hudson Valley and southwestern New England, thicker cloud cover and showers are keeping temperatures in the low/mid 70s and limiting stronger destabilization. However, some clearing across these areas through the afternoon should allow for modest heating and at least weak destabilization later today. Latest visible satellite indicates a cluster of vertically developing CU near the PA/NJ border as of 16z. Latest radar trends are increasing with this activity as well. This convection is developing along an axis of greater instability extending from the northern Chesapeake Bay toward northern NJ. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase across this area over the next couple of hours. Moderate vertical shear will support organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures capable of damaging gusts. Stronger low-level shear and more favorably curved hodographs will reside from northeast PA/northern NJ toward the lower Hudson Valley. Latest VWP data from KBMG and KENX show enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2. However, weaker instability in conjunction with poor lapse rates may limit intensity/longevity of any stronger cells across this area. Nevertheless, any sustained convection will pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes. Given current trends, a watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/18/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 The discussion does mention tornadoes a couple of times. Wonder which one it will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Maybe that Great Barrington magnet will be turned on for this afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Heh... didn't even know this thread existed and I've been chirping about aspects related to today's shenanigans all morning over in the other thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Despite the last hour and a half of steady pitter-pattering light rain, we've managed to just nick 80 here, over a DP of 74 ... Rain has stopped now and the sky, despite satellite .. . has that day-glo lamp look and feels warm when turning one's weinershnitzel face toward the heavens seeking god's speed severe weather light... Not sure if this enough to propagate the same instability up into interior N-central Mass and SE NH... but, judging by rad/sat trends.. we're likely at a minimum good for some lawn greening rains. Hopefully... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Rotation on that cell down near New Rochelle? Looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 I'm entertained by the heavier echos just ripping up the CT River valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Rotation on that cell down near New Rochelle? Looks like it. Everything has some broad rotation but just lacking sufficient instability to strengthen anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2022 Author Share Posted July 18, 2022 Clouds and the developing area of rain really killing things...then we have that cluster that developed in northwest New Jersey which will be moving into western Connecticut within a few hours. It's a nice looking cluster with tons of lightning) but it's probably at it's maximum intensity. Maybe some localized influences can work to tighten any rotation but the clouds/precip are yielding really crappy low-level lapse rates. Steeper low-level lapse rates would have gone a long way in additional parcel acceleration and yielded better (not necessarily in terms of numbers) low-level CAPE...better in the sense of it could be utilized more efficiently to assist with tightening couplets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Is it typical that NWS issues a large scale severe thunderstorm watch like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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