UK Met Office Forecasts 40C for the First Time

[Roger Smith]

Monday's maximum temperatures in France are running close to GFS forecast projections so this tends to indicate that 40-41 will likely happen in parts of England on Tuesday. The highest value I saw in England on Monday was 38 C at Cambridge, with 37 at a number of locations including around greater London. Ireland also came very close to breaking their all-time record on Monday, which is a mere 33.3 C from June, 1887. An amateur station in Dublin equalled that value but I think the official stations will top out a little lower. There has always been some doubt expressed about the situation of the thermometer (in Kilkenny) for the 1887 record, in 2006 it was 32.8 C for a more reliable record. 

Here's a link to the maximum temperatures for France from meteociel. You can zoom in on regions using the menu available at the link. These are preliminary values just in since the period for them is 06z to 18z. Note several locations between 42 and 43 C or around 108-109 F. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=

 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Wales shattered their all time high. The previous record was 35.2 C on Aug. 2nd, 1990. The new record is now 37.1 C in Hawarden just south of Liverpool.

12Z GFS from yesterday forecasted 37C for this area.

12Z ECMWF from yesterday forecasted 35C for this area.

 

 Here is the 37.1 C on a map I got from the @Roger Smith high temp. link. I saw that Hawarden also had that previous record of 35.2 C in 1990. Note that Hawarden clearly sticks out as a hot spot in NE Wales as nearby stations are all 35.5 C or cooler. Some of the variation may be due to elevation differences as Hawarden is low and other differences may be due to more modification from nearby water. Regardless, the fact that the previous hottest Wales location today was 1.9 C/3.4 F hotter is all we need to know to realize the history made.

[donsutherland1]

39.1C at Charlwood Surrey.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1549345259016142848?s=20&t=G3wOdvxQETuxLdmQiwP-2A

[donsutherland1]

A historic day:

 

 

 

[bdgwx]

Here is a reminder that the World Weather Attribution group is usually quick to publish their analysis of heatwaves.  I would expect something within a month or so regarding this event.

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/analysis/heatwave/

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bdgwx said:

Here is a reminder that the World Weather Attribution group is usually quick to publish their analysis of heatwaves.  I would expect something within a month or so regarding this event.

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/analysis/heatwave/

Also, this attribution study from the July 2019 heatwave in Europe is very likely representative. A key finding:

 

It is noteworthy that every heatwave analysed so far in Europe in recent years (2003, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, June 2019 and this study) was found to be made much more likely and more intense due to human-induced climate change. How much more depends very strongly on the event definition: location, season, intensity and durations. The July 2019 heatwave was so extreme over continental Western Europe that the observed magnitudes would have been extremely unlikely without climate change.

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/July2019heatwave.pdf

 

 

[GaWx]

 7/19/22 UK highs from this link:

https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=uk

 

[GaWx]

 And not to forget much of France, Belgium, Luxembourg, southern Netherlands, and much of Germany: these areas on 7/19/22 had widespread highs from the upper 90s to low 100s F (37-40 C)! Although not posted, I should mention that Spain and Portugal were on fire earlier in the week as well as before that.

[bdgwx]

HadCET just updated. The highest daily mean in the Central England Temperature record dating back to 1772 just got SHATTERED.

Here is the sequencing of the records of the highest daily mean.

Date Highest Daily Mean 1772-08-10 22.5 1783-07-11 22.6 1808-07-13 24.5 1948-07-29 25.1 2019-07-25 25.3 2022-07-19 28.1

Here is the full 251 year list sorted in descending order on the highest daily mean for that year.  Prior to 2022 the mean of this list was 21.0 C with a standard deviation of 1.6 C. 2022 is 4.4σ above the mean. Note that the distribution is right tailed so that 4.4σ figure may be a bit misleading.

Year	Highest Daily Mean
2022	28.1
2019	25.3
2020	25.2
1948	25.1
1995	24.8
2015	24.7
2006	24.6
1808	24.5
1976	24.5
1990	24.4
1852	24.0
1923	24.0
1818	23.9
1911	23.9
2003	23.9
1975	23.8
1825	23.7
2016	23.6
1943	23.4
2005	23.2
1868	23.1
1930	23.1
1942	23.0
1989	23.0
1947	22.9
2001	22.9
1826	22.8
1858	22.8
1932	22.8
2013	22.8
1817	22.7
1921	22.7
2018	22.7
1783	22.6
1983	22.6
1997	22.6
2009	22.6
1773	22.5
1830	22.5
1847	22.5
1952	22.5
1876	22.4
1878	22.4
1884	22.4
1901	22.4
1949	22.4
1950	22.4
1834	22.3
1873	22.3
1900	22.3
1906	22.3
1912	22.3
1926	22.3
1941	22.3
1957	22.3
2021	22.3
1793	22.2
1859	22.2
1925	22.2
1933	22.2
1996	22.2
1836	22.1
1856	22.1
1935	22.1
1955	22.1
1779	22.0
1814	22.0
1846	22.0
1872	22.0
1893	22.0
1953	22.0
1820	21.9
1842	21.9
1869	21.9
2011	21.9
1780	21.8
1790	21.8
1792	21.8
1819	21.8
1986	21.8
2017	21.8
1800	21.7
1881	21.7
1897	21.7
1936	21.7
1968	21.7
2004	21.7
1778	21.6
1844	21.6
1871	21.6
1898	21.6
1961	21.6
1970	21.6
1984	21.6
1999	21.6
1798	21.4
1870	21.4
1937	21.4
1969	21.4
2002	21.4
1850	21.3
1874	21.3
1917	21.3
1959	21.3
2000	21.3
1797	21.2
1807	21.2
1837	21.2
1885	21.2
1924	21.2
1982	21.2
2008	21.2
1775	21.1
1822	21.1
1824	21.1
1854	21.1
1944	21.1
2014	21.1
1804	21.0
1857	21.0
1914	21.0
1929	21.0
1945	21.0
1781	20.9
1828	20.9
1886	20.9
1934	20.9
1973	20.9
1987	20.9
1772	20.8
1803	20.8
1899	20.8
1938	20.8
1786	20.7
1795	20.7
1827	20.7
1835	20.7
1896	20.7
1980	20.7
1794	20.6
1904	20.6
1918	20.6
1939	20.6
1967	20.6
1810	20.5
1848	20.5
1866	20.5
1994	20.5
1998	20.5
1788	20.4
1843	20.4
1916	20.4
1960	20.4
1991	20.4
1992	20.4
2012	20.4
1776	20.3
1784	20.3
1838	20.3
1851	20.3
1855	20.3
1867	20.3
1940	20.3
1774	20.2
1801	20.2
1813	20.2
1831	20.2
1887	20.2
1782	20.1
1880	20.1
1894	20.1
1981	20.1
1985	20.1
1791	20.0
1833	20.0
1909	20.0
1958	20.0
2010	20.0
1787	19.9
1832	19.9
1865	19.9
1895	19.9
1902	19.9
1971	19.9
1977	19.9
1802	19.8
1821	19.8
1946	19.8
2007	19.8
1905	19.7
1796	19.6
1840	19.6
1845	19.6
1864	19.6
1877	19.6
1888	19.6
1903	19.6
1785	19.5
1806	19.5
1861	19.5
1863	19.5
1908	19.5
1919	19.5
1951	19.5
1966	19.5
1978	19.5
1979	19.5
1777	19.4
1922	19.4
1928	19.4
1964	19.4
1913	19.3
1927	19.3
1988	19.3
1993	19.3
1789	19.2
1823	19.2
1875	19.2
1915	19.2
1972	19.2
1963	19.1
1812	19.0
1829	19.0
1849	19.0
1805	18.9
1839	18.9
1883	18.9
1892	18.9
1841	18.8
1853	18.8
1910	18.8
1799	18.7
1889	18.7
1931	18.7
1956	18.7
1811	18.6
1891	18.6
1965	18.6
1974	18.6
1809	18.5
1816	18.5
1815	18.4
1879	18.4
1882	18.2
1920	18.2
1954	18.2
1907	18.1
1890	18.0
1962	18.0
1862	17.3
1860	17.2

[GaWx]

 Germany was the hottest country of this relentless European heatwave today (see image below). 40.3 C/104.5 F was the hottest and 7 of the 16 states set new all-time record highs within the 39.4-40.3 C range! However, the country's all-time hottest of 41.2 C, set 7/25/2019, wasn't reached.

 Tomorrow is expected to be Poland's hottest day of this awful heatwave as the heat continues to move eastward while areas further west get a reprieve.

 

[chubbs]

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-the-uks-insane-40c-heat-was-forecast-weeks-in-advance/

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

The last four day's worth of nightly EPS means have been amplifying another NW European, 500 mb non-hydrostatic anomaly - roughly centered on August 11th.

As of last night, it has breached the 590 dm in/and continuing along that established trend. 

As for now, this is really more of a hot couple of days by their standards, but it is noted that there are still 5 days - the erstwhile trend to amplify further may not be finished yet...  

 

This could be more an operational effort, but ...seeing as these 'synergistic' heat waves are very much a part of CC - as per well documented attribution studies - and this is beginning to take on the appearance of being a potential intra-seasonal analog ( meaning it happened once, it can happen again before we exit the hemispheric summer), it's sharing contextual space with forecasting efforts.  

The 850s mb has also been maturing along the same trend, showing a 'river' of hot air origined over the NW African Continent, ... passing over the Iberian Peninsula, where there is less means to modify, circumstantially.  

This won't take much more modulation of these synoptic metrics to become another headline event for much of France and the UK.  

Even if this does not destined to produce ( ..in fact, it's getting kind of late for their latitude), it is note-worthy that this look is materializing again.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The last four day's worth of nightly EPS means have been amplifying another NW European, 500 mb non-hydrostatic anomaly - roughly centered on August 11th.

As of last night, it has breached the 590 dm in/and continuing along that established trend. 

As for now, this is really more of a hot couple of days by their standards, but it is noted that there are still 5 days - the erstwhile trend to amplify further may not be finished yet...  

 

This could be more an operational effort, but ...seeing as these 'synergistic' heat waves are very much a part of CC - as per well documented attribution studies - and this is beginning to take on the appearance of being a potential intra-seasonal analog ( meaning it happened once, it can happen again before we exit the hemispheric summer), it's sharing contextual space with forecasting efforts.  

The 850s mb has also been maturing along the same trend, showing a 'river' of hot air origined over the NW African Continent, ... passing over the Iberian Peninsula, where there is less means to modify, circumstantially.  

This won't take much more modulation of these synoptic metrics to become another headline event for much of France and the UK.  

Even if this does not destined to produce ( ..in fact, it's getting kind of late for their latitude), it is note-worthy that this look is materializing again.

 Interesting. However, by this point (5-6 days out), the models were already largely onto the record heat. Also, although the progged 500 mb peak in southern England (591-2 dm) is very similar to the 592 dm peak last month as you implied, the progged E surface winds late next week (due to the sfc high center being to the NE over the N Sea/Denmark along with it ridging westward) vs the SSE sfc winds bringing in the very hot air last month (due to the sfc high center being over Switz. in concert with sfc low to SSW of UK) (see below) are currently limiting S. England progged highs to more ordinary hot as you said (low 90s vs low-mid 100s then). So, I agree with you that it is looking like just a couple of hot days rather than anything approaching last month:

 

7/18/22 very hot SSE winds from France into S Eng. (along with 592 dm 500 mb peak):

 

 

8/11/22 prog: only more ordinary heat due to E winds from Netherlands/Germany into S. Eng. despite 500 mb hts 591-2 dm (nearly as high as 7/18/22):

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Interesting. However, by this point (5-6 days out), the models were already largely onto the record heat. Also, although the progged 500 mb peak in southern England (591-2 dm) is very similar to the 592 dm peak last month as you implied, the progged E surface winds late next week (due to the sfc high center being to the NE over the N Sea/Denmark along with it ridging westward) vs the SSE sfc winds bringing in the very hot air last month (due to the sfc high center being over Switz. in concert with sfc low to SSW of UK) (see below) are currently limiting S. England progged highs to more ordinary hot as you said (low 90s vs low-mid 100s then). So, I agree with you that it is looking like just a couple of hot days rather than anything approaching last month:

 

7/18/22 very hot SSE winds from France into S Eng. (along with 592 dm 500 mb peak):

 

 

8/11/22 prog: only more ordinary heat due to E winds from Netherlands/Germany into S. Eng. despite 500 mb hts 591-2 dm (nearly as high as 7/18/22):

Right...but the trend may not be finished.  It's a rapid trend onset. ..I'm not sure as a Meteorologist, 'they new by 5 days out' really means that much to me personally.  These things can manifest at different rates. It doesn't preclude this becoming that. 

They have a history of this sort of thing in recent years and this season already ... seeing this same thing with a closed low near the Azores and that big 500 mb non-hydrostatic ridge in the region is too similar in the broader scope to gloss over for me.   - just nuanced and it is very risky to rely on that.  Morph that in 5 days into something more?  not hard to do at all.. 

But honestly.. I'm really more interested in the recurrent nature of that general set up... being one reproducible, and apparently...increasing in frequency the deeper we get into CC future.  That may be the deeper point to make.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw -

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-08-10&id=47fce950-e67b-4271-9a07-92ba94c1934a&referrer=rss

[GaWx]

On 8/10/2022 at 3:08 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw -

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-08-10&id=47fce950-e67b-4271-9a07-92ba94c1934a&referrer=rss

 Thanks for following up on this. This will end up as a respectable four or so day heatwave. Day one was yesterday (8/11). Below are images with 8/11/22 highs, which come from here:

https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php

Eyeballing the numbers for 8/11:

- UK: Hottest I see is at a station in the London area and was at 33.6 C (92.5 F), close to what models have been predicting. That compares to a normal of ~23 C/73.4 F meaning a notable 19 F warmer than normal. Although this heat won't peak in the UK nearly as hot as the alltime hottest set last month of just over 40 C/104 F due largely to prevailing E surface winds this time instead of the SSE winds that brought the extreme heat directly from France last month, 33.6 C is still notable since this is hotter than the annual hottest of 75% of the years 1900-2014 and the median annual hottest during that period was only 32.2 C:

https://www.trevorharley.com/hottest-day-of-each-year-from-1900.html

 Another way to look at this: considering that the winds are easterly instead of a more southerly direction, this is quite impressive heat. An additional notable thing is the four day duration of this heatwave in the UK.

- France: Although N France was close to what S England had, the hottest for all of France appears to have been a blazing 40.9 C/105.6 F! This is in SW France.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2022-09-europe-hottest-summer-eu.html