UK Met Office Forecasts 40C for the First Time

[donsutherland1]

For the first time, the UK Met Office has forecast a high temperature of 40C (104F) in the UK. 
 

 

In what is a best practice that should be widely followed, the forecast discussion links the forthcoming event to climate change. That part of the discussion is below.

Is this due to climate change?

 “We hoped we wouldn’t get to this situation but for the first time ever we are forecasting greater than 40°C in the UK. “Climate attribution scientist at the Met Office, Dr Nikos Christidis, said “In a recent study we found that the likelihood of extremely hot days in the UK has been increasing and will continue to do so during the course of the century, with the most extreme temperatures expected to be observed in the southeast of England.  

“Climate change has already influenced the likelihood of temperature extremes in the UK. The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence. The likelihood of exceeding 40°C anywhere in the UK in a given year has also been rapidly increasing, and, even with current pledges on emissions reductions, such extremes could be taking place every 15 years in the climate of 2100.”

A recent Met Office study found that summers which see days above 40°C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, even with current pledges on emissions reductions this can decrease to 15 years by 2100. 

Extreme heat events do occur within natural climate variation due to changes in global weather patterns. However, the increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of these events over recent decades is clearly linked to the observed warming of the planet and can be attributed to human activity. 

The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence. The likelihood of exceeding 40°C anywhere in the UK in a given year has also been rapidly increasing 

Whilst a 1°C background temperature increase may not seem significant, the resulting increase in the severity of extreme heat events is already evident in the observed record. This has widespread and significant impacts. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/red-extreme-heat-warning

Updates:

The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 °C in the United Kingdom

Attribution Study: June 2022 European Heatwave

40°C reached in the United Kingdom

Attribution Study: July 2019 European Heatwave

Map of the UK's July 19, 2022 High Temperatures

Central England Daily Mean Temperature

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I love the UK Met office. I've been noticing that it is really hard to not be above average in northern Europe/Europe these days. 

[donsutherland1]

A relevant paper concerning the increasing incidence of extreme heat in the UK:

Abstract:

As European heatwaves become more severe, summers in the United Kingdom (UK) are also getting warmer. The UK record temperature of 38.7 °C set in Cambridge in July 2019 prompts the question of whether exceeding 40 °C is now within reach. Here, we show how human influence is increasing the likelihood of exceeding 30, 35 and 40 °C locally. We utilise observations to relate local to UK mean extremes and apply the resulting relationships to climate model data in a risk-based attribution methodology. We find that temperatures above 35 °C are becoming increasingly common in the southeast, while by 2100 many areas in the north are likely to exceed 30 °C at least once per decade. Summers which see days above 40 °C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, but, without mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, this can decrease to 3.5 years by 2100.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16834-0

 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I love the UK Met office. I've been noticing that it is really hard to not be above average in northern Europe/Europe these days. 

Parts of Europe are undergoing aridification, which produces a hotter and drier climate. In addition, quasi-resonance amplification events connected to changes in the Arctic are leading to more prolonged and more impressive heat domes.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, Scandinavia, Finland, and Norway especially have been showing a localized-ridge type pattern, like I've seen in the US. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Parts of Europe are undergoing aridification, which produces a hotter and drier climate. In addition, quasi-resonance amplification events connected to changes in the Arctic are leading to more prolonged and more impressive heat domes.

Interesting word ordering there     ...the 'synergistic heat wave'

 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting word ordering there     ...the 'synergistic heat wave'

 

The more than Three Musketeers. As always …..

[bdgwx]

The makes the irony of the Watts Up With That blog recently mocking a simulated forecast of 40C in 2050 beyond epic.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/28/forecast-for-22nd-june-2050/

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bdgwx said:

The makes the irony of the Watts Up With That blog recently mocking a simulated forecast of 40C in 2050 beyond epic.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/28/forecast-for-22nd-june-2050/

It reveals that those blogging there have no understanding of climate or climate change.

[CAPE]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This may have already been accessed by the forum users .. .but, it pertains to the June period ( recent ) in general, which I find to be too plausibly link-able to the whole aspect re attribution and/how it pertains to what is happening now. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/climate-science/attribution/western_europe_attribution_june_2022.pdf

It's probably becoming entirely academic that these "rogue heatwaves" are attributable...

As an aside ... I have found there to be an increasing frequency in "teleconnector correlation" failures, both air to air and air-oceanic ( the latter of which are more related to seasonal forcing).  This has been been evidenced in recent winters where/whence ENSO biases have shown increasing tendencies to decouple from the circulation modes. 

There is a little known western Europe/eastern N/A positive correlation, when inference uses the "previous climate"    That correlation argued June to have been hotter over the M/A and N/E regions than it was, if/when using the previous statistical model. It was not.  Much of the region, albeit local if even possibly outlying compared to the total continental space ..was in fact modestly negative.  I am not sure what the monthly means for UK vs the former, spanning the whole month of June.  But there were not any heating events requiring any sort of attribution analysis over eastern N/A, either way.

I believe the reason for this apparent increase in lower correlation observations, is due to CC forcing circulation structural changes.  It's been observable/suspicious for over a decade for me personally .. but, these evidences keep emerging. There are other more empirically measured values that are likely related .. Such as, record breaking commercial air liner air-land-speed records being set across the Pac and Atl flight routes, W-->E occurring with increased frequency in the same time span.  The appearance of unusually steep hemispheric gradients during cold season, with unusually strong/progressive pattern biases ... These are related to disrupting R-wave distribution/footprints as a plausible conclusion -

The above serving as a hypothetic premise, "I" think it is worth it to paper that.  It is time the scientific community takes this CC --> 'synoptic base-line' forcing more seriously, because these statistical derived means were all created during a time of relative climate stability - prior to 2000.  Where as since ... the 'hockey-stick' climate changing should immediately conjure ( intuitive objectivity ) skepticism of ENSO to seasons, as much as shorter intra-seasonal correlation disruption among the purer atmospheric domain-to-domain regions .  

[bdgwx]

I just checked this morning's 12Z cycle. All 3 major global models (GFS, UKMET, ECMWF) have the UK maxing out at 38C or higher on Tuesday. The current all time high is 38.7C set on July 25th, 2019 at Cambridge.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bdgwx said:

I just checked this morning's 12Z cycle. All 3 major global models (GFS, UKMET, ECMWF) have the UK maxing out at 38C or higher on Tuesday. The current all time high is 38.7C set on July 25th, 2019 at Cambridge.

Yeah...it appears as the mid range came into this nearer/short term the heat's eased some.   

As far as records.. 38.7C vs 38C can come down to waft perturbations near the thermometer housing.  Probably not 40..  

I don't follow the dailies with model performance over western Europe... My experience with doing so over the N/A continent is that all models tend to have an amplitude bias in the late mid range that corrects toward less crossing over the D4 .. 5 range.  I'm sure they have godly experienced forecasters in the UK Met office doing analysis - they know.   But I wonder what nicked this since Thursday when the news broke that it looked historic at first.   It may still be ...not saying it won't.  38 is certainly notable even if it falls short.  But 104 over the cobblestone streets of London would've been amazing.

[StormchaserChuck!]

We gots some big arctic ice melt coming up

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

We gots some big arctic ice melt coming up

I'm surprised it hasn't happen sooner with the blocky summer ... But then again, the AO has been positive, despite the tendency for blocking nodes in the Ferrel latitudes.   Been a bizarre split hemisphere like that.. .with concurrent diametric mass fields - and it's hard to argue stability in maintaining that when it's been going on for 6 weeks. 

interesting

[StormchaserChuck!]

... ... . .. .just kidding

[StormchaserChuck!]

I respect science. 

[bdgwx]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...it appears as the mid range came into this nearer/short term the heat's eased some.   

As far as records.. 38.7C vs 38C can come down to waft perturbations near the thermometer housing.  Probably not 40..  

I don't follow the dailies with model performance over western Europe... My experience with doing so over the N/A continent is that all models tend to have an amplitude bias in the late mid range that corrects toward less crossing over the D4 .. 5 range.  I'm sure they have godly experienced forecasters in the UK Met office doing analysis - they know.   But I wonder what nicked this since Thursday when the news broke that it looked historic at first.   It may still be ...not saying it won't.  38 is certainly notable even if it falls short.  But 104 over the cobblestone streets of London would've been amazing.

Just to clarify...all models are showing 38C or higher. UKMET said the odds of > 38.7C were 80% on Friday. Based on more recent modeling I have not seen anything that would undermine that prediction. In fact, if anything, I think the 2m temperature products have actually amped up a bit since Friday. The all time record high appears to still be in play from what I'm seeing.

[GaWx]

 From the 18Z Euro, the peak 500 mb hts over southern England are near 592 dm at 12Z on 7/18/22:

 This is ~21 dm above the normal of ~571 dm:

 

 The peak 850 mb temp anomaly on the 18Z Euro over S. England is +15C to +16C (+27 to +29F) at 3Z on 7/19/22:

 

 The peak 2M temperature on the 0Z GFS at London is ~+38C/+100F as of 12z on 7/19/22 but the hottest would likely be near 15Z, which I don't have. The hottest on the 0Z GFS in S England at 12Z on 7/19/22 is near +40C/+104 F, but a 15Z map would likely be hotter. (I'm not familiar with what the GFS 2m temp bias is here.)

 

 These 2m temp anomalies are +28 to +30F:

 

 The all-time hottest daily low at London is +23.3C or 73.9F, set 7/29/1948. This has a good chance to be beaten on Tue 7/19/22 but we'll have to see if the temp drops back below that before midnight Wednesday:

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_London

 This UK heat originated over N Africa and then traveled north to Spain with very little modification from the Mediterranean Sea due to traversing only a narrow portion of it. It will peak in W and N France on 7/18 before peaking in England on 7/19 on steady SSE winds meaning little modification from the English Channel. A surface low to the west of in combination with a surface high to the east is causing this hot wind flow. AGW is likely contributing several degrees to this heat. In other words, without AGW, the same setup would likely result in the peak heat being several degrees cooler than what will occur. I'd love to see the maps for similar intense historic heatwaves to compare things like peak 500 mb hts, 850 mb temps, and surface features. I assume the setups would be similar. 

 

[bdgwx]

UKMET is now saying there is a 95% chance that the all time record will be broken.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

UKMET is now saying there is a 95% chance that the all time record will be broken.

 

There's been minor fluctuations in the modeling over the last several days as it pertains to this event, but by and large ...a robust continuity, nonetheless. That lends to confidence for a couple top rank hot days.

Last Thursday .. the ECMWF was perhaps .5C hotter 'edging' this event.  Over the weekend ..typical model noise may have 'dulled' slightly slightly... It's still within error acceptability - the UK office put out 38C for the highest at some point during ... when the previous (Thur last week) was 40C aoa the 80th percentile confidence etc...   Model noise. 

What's interesting is that the GFS model is actually the hotter of the two guidance. 

If that 2-m were to verify, this whole discussion is moot.   Everyone breaks records south of ~ the 53 parallel over the vaster area of the E and S of Isles. 

Yet, while London and the B. Isles region in general are capturing story headlines ( probably due to association oddity/psychology), the real 'danger' is in N. France.  Those poor f's.   Talkin' 42C (108F when rounding..) over multiple points in the graphical hover/pt&click.  

Not to over-sell that. The heat event in the Pacific NW resulted similar or even > results... I don't know what their records are in the N of France.... but that's also along the 48th to 50th where that event took place in the Pac NW, fwiw -  

[klw]

I found a number of stations on Wunderground in the 100 to 102 range.  This one is the hottest I found:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ILONDO321

It show a high so far of 105.4.

Others I have seen pushing 103:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IOXFORDS33

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IHUNTI10

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ILEOMI3

[bdgwx]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's been minor fluctuations in the modeling over the last several days as it pertains to this event, but by and large ...a robust continuity, nonetheless. That lends to confidence for a couple top rank hot days.

Last Thursday .. the ECMWF was perhaps .5C hotter 'edging' this event.  Over the weekend ..typical model noise may have 'dulled' slightly slightly... It's still within error acceptability - the UK office put out 38C for the highest at some point during ... when the previous (Thur last week) was 40C aoa the 80th percentile confidence etc...   Model noise. 

What's interesting is that the GFS model is actually the hotter of the two guidance. 

If that 2-m were to verify, this whole discussion is moot.   Everyone breaks records south of ~ the 53 parallel over the vaster area of the E and S of Isles. 

Yet, while London and the B. Isles region in general are capturing story headlines ( probably due to association oddity/psychology), the real 'danger' is in N. France.  Those poor f's.   Talkin' 42C (108F when rounding..) over multiple points in the graphical hover/pt&click.  

Not to over-sell that. The heat event in the Pacific NW resulted similar or even > results... I don't know what their records are in the N of France.... but that's also along the 48th to 50th where that event took place in the Pac NW, fwiw -  

I saw that the GFS was the most aggressive with its 2m T product. I noticed that it has had a high bias with temperatures in the plains states this summer. I wonder if the same bias is in play here as well.

[bdgwx]

Wales shattered their all time high. The previous record was 35.2 C on Aug. 2nd, 1990. The new record is now 37.1 C in Hawarden just south of Liverpool.

12Z GFS from yesterday forecasted 37C for this area.

12Z ECMWF from yesterday forecasted 35C for this area.

 

[donsutherland1]

A great link for monitoring the heat in the UK is https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/

[GaWx]

  World SST anomaly map for yesterday (7/17/22): note how warm was the western Mediterranean. Much of it is +3C+ or +5.4+ F warmer than normal. Also, the Bay of Biscay and English Channel are clearly warmer than normal. These are bodies of water that are traversed by the hot air originating in Northern Africa before reaching locations like Spain, France, and the UK. With them being so warm (likely enhanced by AGW), there's less modification by these bodies of water vs if they were closer to normal:

 

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A great link for monitoring the heat in the UK is https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/

[GaWx]

 From the 12Z Icon, which I'm posting because I have three hour intervals allowing for 15Z maps, the hottest over the next two days at 2M in Wales and SW England is the 15Z map for today (7/18) (top map) while the hottest for SE England including London is the 15Z map for tomorrow (7/19)(bottom map). The 15Z map for tomorrow is actually cooler than the 12Z map for tomorrow in Wales and SW England due to cooling coming in there earlier that isn't then yet reaching SE England.

 

 Based on temperatures that have been posted here, this model run is significantly cooler than reality. Note that the hottest contour on the top map in England (today at 15Z) is only +36 C, which is only 97 F over a small area north of London. The hottest on this top map in Wales is only +33C in far eastern Wales, which is a whopping 4C/7F cooler than the actual hottest of +37C!! Readings of over 100 F have already been noted in England. Assuming these readings are accurately reflecting reality, it appears that there's a significant cold bias at play on this 12Z Icon. With that being the case, look out for tomorrow in SE England, where this run appears to have the hottest near +38 C vs near +36 C today meaning a good 3-4 hotter than today would be implied. IF this run ends up being 4C too cool for tomorrow in SE England, the implication is that they could reach as hot as +42 C (107.6 F) in the hottest spot!!

 

[bdgwx]

UKMET is reporting 38.1 C at the official station in Santon Downham as the highest of the day for England. That's over there on the east side of England northeast of Cambridge. Very nearly an all time record already.

Yesterday's 12Z GFS was forecasting 39 C max for this region.

Yesterday's 12Z ECMWF was forecasting 36 C max for this region.

Yesterday's 12Z UKMET was forecasting 34 C at 15Z for this region.

Despite being biased a tad high GFS performed the best with its 2m T forecast. I'm thinking there is a decent chance we could see 40 C somewhere tomorrow. Today's 12Z GFS is forecasting 42 C.

[donsutherland1]

42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The air base at Brize Norton also suffered infrastructure damage from the heat.