Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 FWIW, the local TV met here is banging the torch drum for next week on his blog (mid to upper 40's). Says snow doesn't return until the end of the month. Not sure I'd put too much stock into it, but just throwing it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 EURO/GFS picks up almost nothing in the next 10-12 days? Looks like its going to be quite to at least the 10th until then theres going to be a lot of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 FWIW, the local TV met here is banging the torch drum for next week on his blog (mid to upper 40's). Says snow doesn't return until the end of the month. Not sure I'd put too much stock into it, but just throwing it out there. Its not that far fetched. This month does not look to eventfull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Its not that far fetched. This month does not look to eventfull. True, but it seems like that forecast is based on some of the older EURO runs that were showing more of a zonal flow. It might be uneventful, but at a minimum it should be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Its not that far fetched. This month does not look to eventfull. We'll see. I'm starting to get the bad vibe of a 2000-01 repeat here, where it was all December and a snooze fest for the rest of the winter. Doesn't help that Don Sutherland has thrown out 2000-01 as a possible analog the rest of the way. True, but it seems like that forecast is based on some of the older EURO runs that were showing more of a zonal flow. It might be uneventful, but at a minimum it should be cold. I can't speak to the accuracy of his forecasts, because I only check his blog from time to time. Of course his winter forecast was for a relaxation in January, so maybe there's a bit of bias in there. But you're right, if last night's Euro is correct, he busts warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 True, but it seems like that forecast is based on some of the older EURO runs that were showing more of a zonal flow. It might be uneventful, but at a minimum it should be cold. There should be a couple weak clippers (1-4") from Now to the 15th...you would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 CSnavy needs to provide us with one of his medium-range discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Chicago WX' timestamp='1293719489' post='205044']We'll see. I'm starting to get the bad vibe of a 2000-01 repeat here, where it was all December and a snooze fest for the rest of the winter. Doesn't help that Don Sutherland has thrown out 2000-01 as a possible analog the rest of the way. I remember that year very well. We had a 10-20" (17.5" here) Snowstorm in SEMI and by X-mas there was almost a 2 foot snow depth then the winter turned into a..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 CSnavy needs to provide us with one of his medium-range discussions. +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 We'll see. I'm starting to get the bad vibe of a 2000-01 repeat here, where it was all December and a snooze fest for the rest of the winter. Doesn't help that Don Sutherland has thrown out 2000-01 as a possible analog the rest of the way. Without looking at any data, I seem to recall Jan-Mar 2001 as sort of mild. It wouldn't jump out at me as being an appropriate analog for a second half that's going to feature a lot of high latitude blocking. But I may be "misremembering" things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 There should be a couple weak clippers (1-4") from Now to the 15th...you would think Well I'd hope as much. But mother nature hasn't cooperated. It's been blocking/cold/dry, blocking/cold/dry, blocking/cold/dry, and just when the block weakens a tad, storm shoots west/warm/rain. Same narrative as last winter. I have some choice words for her I won't repeat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I remember that year very well. We had a 10-20" (17.5" here) Snowstorm in SEMI and by X-mas there was almost a 2 foot snow depth then the winter turned into a..................... Had two unforecasted snowstorms (11" on Feb 8, 8.5" on March 4-5) that made the second half of that winter bearable. However, outside of those snowfalls, there wasn't much to write home about. But in tandem with December 2000, those two snowstorms made it a decent winter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Well I'd hope as much. But mother nature hasn't cooperated. It's been blocking/cold/dry, blocking/cold/dry, blocking/cold/dry, and just when the block weakens a tad, storm shoots west/warm/rain. Same narrative as last winter. I have some choice words for her I won't repeat here. Ive notice from the 3rd through the 7th theres more blocking over northern Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 FWIW, the local TV met here is banging the torch drum for next week on his blog (mid to upper 40's). Says snow doesn't return until the end of the month. Not sure I'd put too much stock into it, but just throwing it out there. boring? yes.... mid to upper 40's next week?????? I haven't seen a single model suggesting that for us, much less michigan. Granted, if there's nothing to track I say bring on the warmth....i'm just not seeing it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 btw, JB is beginning to bang the severe cold drum for much of the US from the 10th thru the end of the month. He's basing this on a significant warming event beginning to take shape in the stratosphere that strongly correlates to brutal cold invading the country down the road. This means he would be destroying his own forecast of a mild january. I also see DT banging his drum for a potential mid atlantic snowstorm Dec 8-10. Definitely a lot of uncertainty out there after we get thru the first week of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Ive notice from the 3rd through the 7th theres more blocking over northern Quebec Snowstorm favorable teleconnectors for us (not sure where in MI you are, the further north and east the more this applies to you) is probably neutral NAO (if east based) or slightly positive (if west based), neutral or slightly negative AO, and neutral or positive PNA (with AO having an inverse relationship with PNA). And of course, La Nina is typically better than El Nino. Next time Harry's around I'll get him to fill us in on the other teleconnectors beyond by knowledge, like QBO and MJO. Aside from the Nina, which has been completely overwhelmed, we've got none of those teleconnectors working in our favor, so I'm not sure there's a lot to be optimistic about. I did notice the DGEX is picking up on a possible LES outbreak next week once the cold air deepens. At this point, some inland penetration is the best I'm hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Snowstorm favorable teleconnectors for us (not sure where in MI you are, the further north and east the more this applies to you) is probably neutral NAO (if east based) or slightly positive (if west based), neutral or slightly negative AO, and neutral or positive PNA (with AO having an inverse relationship with PNA). And of course, La Nina is typically better than El Nino. Next time Harry's around I'll get him to fill us in on the other teleconnectors beyond by knowledge, like QBO and MJO. Aside from the Nina, which has been completely overwhelmed, we've got none of those teleconnectors working in our favor, so I'm not sure there's a lot to be optimistic about. I did notice the DGEX is picking up on a possible LES outbreak next week once the cold air deepens. At this point, some inland penetration is the best I'm hoping for. Im 40 Miles North of Detroit directly west of London,ONT by 90 Min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I just wish I felt your optimism. It's funny, because I'm normally a very optimistic person. Weather, however, is sometimes a different animal to me. Maybe it's because I follow it so closely and get let down a lot. Example: Seeing models showing 6"+ for days on end in MBY and ending up with 2" Instead of enjoying the 2, I'm disappointed for not getting the 6. Yeah, and if the forecast called for a dusting at best and you got 2", youd be thrilled! My optimism is 2/3 climo and 1/3 models. I KNOW climo of this region. Specifically for Detroit, but I consider myself pretty darn knowlegable in the entire region actually. Seems like a lot on here expect climo to exceed expecations. For example, some of my fellow SE MI crew have been very down about this December, esp with what happened to our S and W. Yet from a CLIMO standpoint snowfall was near to slightly below normal, but snowcover was well above normal. On the other end of the spectrum, those who have been really screwed lately (ie, the Toronto crowd) are almost in a weather-depression where they think it just wont snow. CLIMO. That is not true. And as for the models...I look at them, but whether they show good or bad I do NOT take them seriously. If you notice, when we have a good thing going per models I get excited but not over the top, and when we have a bad thing going I get a little down but not on the out. Ive been following weather for too long that I know how the models are. the 12z GFS shows less than 2 inches of snow in the next 2 weeks. BIG DEAL. The 18z might show 2 feet in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 We'll see. I'm starting to get the bad vibe of a 2000-01 repeat here, where it was all December and a snooze fest for the rest of the winter. Doesn't help that Don Sutherland has thrown out 2000-01 as a possible analog the rest of the way. Where did he say that. I didnt quite see that, and I did read his thread. IMO he is an EXCELLENT and non-bias forecaster on here, and to be honest, he is the only one from the east whos pinned threads I ever read. Other than him, there is WAY too much eastern bias to the point where it becomes completely irrelevant. Ive seen many times over the past several winters when "analogs" were thrown out there that would be nightmares for here and on the contrary ended up being very snowy. A storm happens somewhere in that region and they look for similar storms and all of a sudden you have an "analog", when the funny thing is the actual setup is nowhere near that. In any event, I really wouldnt worry too much. Climo and Nina is on our side. Dead of winter is 1 month away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 See Don S. thread about severe blocking especially during a nina. Thus why i am nearly certain we wont see a return to the kind of blocking had recently/this month. Here is all NAO info going back to the 1860s. This IS reliable because it was measured on land/Greenland. Thus it covers the last deep solar min as well. Need to know which was Nina ask away. Sure as said we may see more -NAO Blocking ( almost a given ) but it should not be nearly as severe as it was. http://www.cgd.ucar....tml#naostatseas perhaps so Harry, hope u r right but having said that, in my mind, ive pretty much packed up shop for the season and moved on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Where did he say that. I didnt quite see that, and I did read his thread. IMO he is an EXCELLENT and non-bias forecaster on here, and to be honest, he is the only one from the east whos pinned threads I ever read. Other than him, there is WAY too much eastern bias to the point where it becomes completely irrelevant. Ive seen many times over the past several winters when "analogs" were thrown out there that would be nightmares for here and on the contrary ended up being very snowy. A storm happens somewhere in that region and they look for similar storms and all of a sudden you have an "analog", when the funny thing is the actual setup is nowhere near that. In any event, I really wouldnt worry too much. Climo and Nina is on our side. Dead of winter is 1 month away. From his pinned thread about January. Although I don't yet favor a near-term return of severe or extreme blocking, there is some prospect that the experience following extreme December 1976 and 2009 blocks could play out. If so, the curernt blocking regime could persist through at least mid-January (latter case) and additional episodes of severe/extreme blocking could be expected (both cases). Currently, I give odds of that development's occurring around 25%. More likely, IMO, are scenarios along the lines of 1995-96 and 2000-01 (weaker La Niñas with a December AO < -2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Where did he say that. I didnt quite see that, and I did read his thread. IMO he is an EXCELLENT and non-bias forecaster on here, and to be honest, he is the only one from the east whos pinned threads I ever read. Other than him, there is WAY too much eastern bias to the point where it becomes completely irrelevant. Ive seen many times over the past several winters when "analogs" were thrown out there that would be nightmares for here and on the contrary ended up being very snowy. A storm happens somewhere in that region and they look for similar storms and all of a sudden you have an "analog", when the funny thing is the actual setup is nowhere near that. In any event, I really wouldnt worry too much. Climo and Nina is on our side. Dead of winter is 1 month away. A few mets have said that next weekend the models are wrong with the low being too far south. The baroclinic zone will be further north which should bode well for us. You have the very warm air and the cold air merging together and things could get interesting. Looks like more of a flat pattern which should yield more storms for the great lakes region january 7th and beyond. They wont be too large but more like 3-6, 4-8 snowstorms. Could be some bigger ones but we sill see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I agree the models are a too far south with the storm for next week. I think it comes way north in the coming days. I honestly feel it will come far enough north that area south of I 70 for example see rain and ice.... Areas north of I 70 towards MI get mainly snow. JMO given the pattern that were going into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Guys, get over to OT and give Anal-log your support. Brick Tamland might be a huge regional weenie, but he's basically the equivalent of our moneyman, and there's no way he deserves the "honor" more than that pseudo-met. http://www.americanw...te/page__st__20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 lol, GFS has been pretty consistent with that ~D14 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Love the look of the 12z EURO at 240. It has the blocking, but everything is shifted SW a good 1,000+ miles. "Greenland" blocking ridge is actually just off the coast of Labrador, and the upstream "Atlantic vortex" is centered over South Bend, IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Guys, get over to OT and give Anal-log your support. Brick Tamland might be a huge regional weenie, but he's basically the equivalent of our moneyman, and there's no way he deserves the "honor" more than that pseudo-met. http://www.americanw...te/page__st__20 he has my vote. i just want to see a red tagger win it. looks like we start january off near average here with upper teens and low 20s after a cold weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Love the look of the 12z EURO at 240. It has the blocking, but everything is shifted SW a good 1,000+ miles. "Greenland" blocking ridge is actually just off the coast of Labrador, and the upstream "Atlantic vortex" is centered over South Bend, IN Well that's definitely odd...the madness continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Guys, get over to OT and give Anal-log your support. Brick Tamland might be a huge regional weenie, but he's basically the equivalent of our moneyman, and there's no way he deserves the "honor" more than that pseudo-met. http://www.americanw...te/page__st__20 Support Analog96! Everyone go and VOTE now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Support Analog96! Everyone go and VOTE now! I support this post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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