GL/MW/OV Jan 2011 Discussion

[baroclinic_instability]

So is it good to be weenie of the year? It seems like it is a slight, if anything. I took the poll as a complete joke and voted for Chicago Storm, but does one actually want to be weenie of the year?

[SEMIweather]

So is it good to be weenie of the year? It seems like it is a slight, if anything. I took the poll as a complete joke and voted for Chicago Storm, but does one actually want to be weenie of the year?

It's not a good thing...

[JoMo]

Interesting discussion from Dodge City today. (although it sucks) Looks like the blocking come back in the east after the first of the year.

TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS WHILE REMAINING ANOMALOUSLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIME CONTINENT. RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM VALUES STILL ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN A LA NINA YEAR. MOUNTAIN TORQUE STILL IS POSITIVE WITH MUCH OF THE POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION COMING FROM NORTH AMERICA, BUT THE MOUNTAIN TORQUE AND THE CALCULATED RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM TENDENCY ARE DECREASING. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE ORBITING BACK TOWARD PHASE 2-3 IN THE GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, ALTHOUGH THE GWO SIGNAL IS WEAK AT BEST. THE WHEELER-HENDON MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM HAS PICKED UP ON THE INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND SUGGESTS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PHASE 5 OF THE MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, WHICH FAVORS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WESTERN CANADA. ADDING COMPLEXITY TO THE FLOW IS THE PERSISTENT RIDGING NEAR GREENLAND. THE BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR GREENLAND APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED TEMPORARILY, BUT MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE VALUES FOR THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IN EARLY JANUARY. THE NET RESULT LIKELY WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A RETURN TO BLOCKING IN THE ATLANTIC AFTER THE FIRST OF THE YEAR, A SPLIT FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES.

[snowstormcanuck]

So is it good to be weenie of the year? It seems like it is a slight, if anything. I took the poll as a complete joke and voted for Chicago Storm, but does one actually want to be weenie of the year?

WOTY is an honor most could do without. Not sure where Chicago Storm is getting all these votes from. I'm guessing the ECers see the word Chicago and start clicking in a frenzy. Damn cutters.

[Stebo]

Interesting discussion from Dodge City today. (although it sucks) Looks like the blocking come back in the east after the first of the year.

TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS WHILE REMAINING ANOMALOUSLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIME CONTINENT. RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM VALUES STILL ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN A LA NINA YEAR. MOUNTAIN TORQUE STILL IS POSITIVE WITH MUCH OF THE POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION COMING FROM NORTH AMERICA, BUT THE MOUNTAIN TORQUE AND THE CALCULATED RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM TENDENCY ARE DECREASING. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE ORBITING BACK TOWARD PHASE 2-3 IN THE GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, ALTHOUGH THE GWO SIGNAL IS WEAK AT BEST. THE WHEELER-HENDON MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM HAS PICKED UP ON THE INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND SUGGESTS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PHASE 5 OF THE MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, WHICH FAVORS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WESTERN CANADA. ADDING COMPLEXITY TO THE FLOW IS THE PERSISTENT RIDGING NEAR GREENLAND. THE BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR GREENLAND APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED TEMPORARILY, BUT MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE VALUES FOR THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IN EARLY JANUARY. THE NET RESULT LIKELY WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A RETURN TO BLOCKING IN THE ATLANTIC AFTER THE FIRST OF THE YEAR, A SPLIT FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES.

:axe:

[daddylonglegs]

La Crosse from this afternoon:

BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE

MODELS. THIS DUE TO THEM TRYING TO TRANSITION A NON-EXISTENT MADDEN

JULIAN OSCILLATION EAST TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THE

FORCING THAT THE MODELS WERE LATCHING ONTO IS ACTUALLY

RETROGRADING BACK TOWARD INDONESIA...AND THIS MAKES THE MODEL

SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD VERY QUESTIONABLE.

[Stevo6899]

:axe:

Anyone care to elaborate or explain why thats bad or good for the great lakes region?

[Stebo]

Anyone care to elaborate or explain why thats bad or good for the great lakes region?

More blocking will essentially be repeating what we have already had.

[snowstormcanuck]

Impressive looking southern stream s/w coming ashore in CA at D5 on the GFS. However, it really dampens it out thereafter.

[Harry]

More blocking will essentially be repeating what we have already had.

Kinda depends on exactly how/where it sets up. All we really need is for it to shift a little bit further north and or east ( or even a tad weaker ) and we are in business. Almost a given it wont be as strong as it was and thus the tad weaker option has the best chance of happening.

In short.. I am 99.9% certain we wont be seeing a repeat of December. Bank on it.

[baroclinic_instability]

The next 6-10 day weather pattern looks awful after this New Years event. The doldrums of winter setting in.

[Harry]

The next 6-10 day weather pattern looks awful after this New Years event. The doldrums of winter setting in.

Something will probably pop up between now and then.

[BowMeHunter]

Meteorologist Cromartie bought a new snow blower and that was the kiss of death to this winter like when he bought a swimming pool 2 summers ago.. That was hardly used.. Locking in a good to great winter snowfall next season now.

[Harry]

Meteorologist Cromartie bought a new snow blower and that was the kiss of death to this winter like when he bought a swimming pool 2 summers ago.. That was hardly used.. Locking in a good to great winter snowfall next season now.

Where the heck has he been?

[BowMeHunter]

Where the heck has he been?

I hope you had a great Christmas in, Ohio!

[snowstormcanuck]

Where the heck has he been?

His ass got canned for pulling a scam.

[Harry]

I hope you had a great Christmas in, Ohio!

Thanks. It was good. Hope yours was good as well.

His ass got canned for pulling a scam.

I guess i missed a few things while i was gone.

[IWXwx]

Kinda depends on exactly how/where it sets up. All we really need is for it to shift a little bit further north and or east ( or even a tad weaker ) and we are in business. Almost a given it wont be as strong as it was and thus the tad weaker option has the best chance of happening.

In short.. I am 99.9% certain we wont be seeing a repeat of December. Bank on it.

My first thought to this was that, yes it might be good to the MI guys and myself, but would not help the Toronto guys. In the December setup, several "hybrid clippers" rolled in and slid SE.

This resulted in LAF receiving over 20" and MBY, just 75 miles ENE, just a touch over 8".

IF the slightly displaced blocking you depict were to occur, it would put us in a favorable area for a storm track, but YYG would probably still be under the blocking dome of death.

That was a pretty stout block. If it is only a "tad weaker", it would still be pretty strong.

[roardog]

His ass got canned for pulling a scam.

I had a feeling he wasn't really a met. What did he do, make some fake documentation? Is that what got him banned?

[A-L-E-K]

looks like we're going to lose 1-2 wks of prime snow season to a lame progressive pattern. Epic fail.

[snowstormcanuck]

If the GFS is right, I'll go about 22 days without seeing accumulating snow. In the process of seeing whether that's a record for me.

[Chicago WX]

0z Euro pretty torchy for here, days 8-10 and probably beyond. I guess the good run (luck) couldn't last forever. Oh well, adios winter...see ya ,hopefully, somewhere down the road.

[snowstormcanuck]

If the GFS is right, I'll go about 22 days without seeing accumulating snow. In the process of seeing whether that's a record for me.

Longest time without accumulating snow during a core winter month (DJF) IMBY:

24 days in December 2006 (Dec 5-28)

Wow, that must have sucked. Currently only sitting on 8 days but it feels like an eternity. It'll be tough to avoid 0.1" for 16 days, especially if the colder GFS turns out to be right, but here's hoping

[Chicago WX]

Longest time without accumulating snow during a core winter month (DJF) IMBY:

24 days in December 2006 (Dec 5-28)

Wow, that must have sucked. Currently only sitting on 8 days but it feels like an eternity. It'll be tough to avoid 0.1" for 16 days, especially if the colder GFS turns out to be right, but here's hoping

Cheering for futility now, huh?

[snowstormcanuck]

Cheering for futility now, huh?

1 part reverse psychology, 1 part I'm a sucker for breaking records, even bad ones.

[Chicago WX]

1 part reverse psychology, 1 part I'm a sucker for breaking records, even bad ones.

Ah I see. Well last winter I thought you guys would turn it around...but you didn't. So this season, I'll hop on the negative (reverse psychology) train for Toronto and wish you nothing but bad luck.

[dmc76]

Something will probably pop up between now and then.

This is how winter was in Michigan in the mid 90's...Cold, Dry, Dark and little Snow unless you lived in LES areas.

[michsnowfreak]

This is how winter was in Michigan in the mid 90's...Cold, Dry, Dark and little Snow unless you lived in LES areas.

1995-96 yes, but the '90s winters in general were quite mild (relatively speaking of course). Where in SE MI do you live?

Look at these stats for DTW. Winters of the '90s vs the '00s saw the biggest 1 decade reversal Detroit has ever seen (in a good way).

1990s:

Avg snowfall: 37.2" (9 of 13 in the thirteen decades since 1880)

Avg 1"+ snowcover days: 38 days (10 of 10 in the ten decades beginning with 1910)

2000s:

Avg snowfall: 45.3" (5 of 13 in the thirteen decades since 1880)

Avg 1"+ snowcover days: 53 days (4 of 10 in the ten decades beginning with 1910)

[dmc76]

1995-96 yes, but the '90s winters in general were quite mild (relatively speaking of course). Where in SE MI do you live?

Look at these stats for DTW. Winters of the '90s vs the '00s saw the biggest 1 decade reversal Detroit has ever seen (in a good way).

1990s:

Avg snowfall: 37.2" (9 of 13 in the thirteen decades since 1880)

Avg 1"+ snowcover days: 38 days (10 of 10 in the ten decades beginning with 1910)

2000s:

Avg snowfall: 45.3" (5 of 13 in the thirteen decades since 1880)

Avg 1"+ snowcover days: 53 days (4 of 10 in the ten decades beginning with 1910)

Let me phrase this...

Storm tracks was south and North we didnt get a lot of big Snowstorms of 8"+ There were Mild/Cold Stretches overall it wasnt that Mild.

[Organizing Low]

latest ensembles are suggesting a return of severe blocking

congrats Chicago Storm and Buckeyyyyyyyyyyyee!!!