Moneyman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z EURO and 12z EURO pretty much have the same low location. Except 0z had a 996 low at 192, while 12z has a sub 1004 in the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 HR 192 has a sub 1004 (maybe 1000) low in N-NE MN. LT precip in WI/IN/IL with LT-MOD precip located near the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What are your thoughts Baro? HR 198: Sub 996 MB LOW N. WI HR 204: Sub 992 MB LOW U.P. Looks pretty similar to 0z last night excpet it's a tad weaker and a tad farther north. QPF is also quite a bit smaller this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What are your thoughts Baro? HR 198: Sub 996 MB LOW N. WI HR 204: Sub 992 MB LOW U.P. Looks pretty similar to 0z last night excpet it's a tad weaker and a tad farther north. QPF is also quite a bit smaller this run. GFS/ECM sounds very similar. I would take something like this any day over the arctic high drooling cold air into the region. This still has potential...and there is some phasing going on here. Could still be even better. I like that nothing major changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What are your thoughts Baro? HR 198: Sub 996 MB LOW N. WI HR 204: Sub 992 MB LOW U.P. Looks pretty similar to 0z last night excpet it's a tad weaker and a tad farther north. QPF is also quite a bit smaller this run. if that's how the cold get's ushered in, (on a low that far north moving west to east), I'm betting it doesn't penetrate too deeply into the conus....unless another storm can form on the baroclinic zone further south and really wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 998 and a sharp arctic front still through 192. Drops another 11 hpa the next 24 hours. Really though 192 hours out for such a low amplitude feature--impossible to call this a lock. 12Z CMC looks like a pile of junk with the cold air seeping S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 998 and a sharp arctic front still through 192. Drops another 11 hpa the next 24 hours. Really though 192 hours out for such a low amplitude feature--impossible to call this a lock. 12Z CMC looks like a pile of junk with the cold air seeping S. just for kicks...192hr 12Z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hrs 216 and 240 euro still keeps the motherlode well into canada as i suspected. However, there appears to be a storm developing in the southern plains at 240. If this can wind into something, that might be what opens the gates for the arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 just for kicks...192hr 12Z JMA maybe that trailer on the front in the south will become something. BTW, the jma is identical to the euro wrt the tues event, (precip and low placements) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 just for kicks...192hr 12Z JMA maybe that trailer on the front in the south will become something. BTW, the jma is identical to the euro wrt the tues event, (precip and low placements) Do you guys have a link? I have never even looked at it before, the EC folk like to reference every now and then though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Do you guys have a link? I have never even looked at it before, the EC folk like to reference every now and then though. JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the models have hinted on and off at a possible 2 parts brinign the cold air down. that would be nice, i dont care about the cold, just snow so the more chances the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 JMA Thanks. the models have hinted on and off at a possible 2 parts brinign the cold air down. that would be nice, i dont care about the cold, just snow so the more chances the better. Should be fun to watch it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Late week next week looks interesting GFS at 180 hrs has a 999mb low in N MN, with some light to mod precip across the region. at 192 hours, the low is just N of Lake Superior, and has mod to heavy? precip breaking out across MI, IN, OH and KY. Temps drop as the low passes east, with highs looking to be in the single digits for a couple of days. At hour 228 there is a 1006mb? low WY and MT and at hour 240, well, it's hard to tell what happens next, although it looks quite cold for the MW, GL, and Plains.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah that BS looks nice at 192.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah that BS looks nice at 192.... Doesn't it though? It will change a couple of dozen times between now and next weekend...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 According to the city's weather station 2010 summary, --------- "The final total was 879.3 mm which is close enough the average of 904.0 mm to say that for the second year in the row we had an average year of precipitation." "The 77.5 cm of snow we saw during the calendar year of 2010 was about half of the average of 159.5 cm. We didn’t get any measureable snow during March at the UW weather station and you have to back to 1946 to find another March like that." ----------- With 880mm of precipitation measured and 77.5cm of that being snow... Does that work out to be 34 inches of precipitation for the entire year, with 30 inches of that being snow, leaving only 4 inches of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Boy is the 18Z GFS fantasy with the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 According to the city's weather station 2010 summary, --------- "The final total was 879.3 mm which is close enough the average of 904.0 mm to say that for the second year in the row we had an average year of precipitation." "The 77.5 cm of snow we saw during the calendar year of 2010 was about half of the average of 159.5 cm. We didn’t get any measureable snow during March at the UW weather station and you have to back to 1946 to find another March like that." ----------- With 880mm of precipitation measured and 77.5cm of that being snow... Does that work out to be 34 inches of precipitation for the entire year, with 30 inches of that being snow, leaving only 4 inches of rain? Snow does not have a 1:1 ratio with its liquid content. 10:1 is a rule of thumb, but it can be lower, and often is higher. Roughly speaking, 77.5cm of snow = 77.5mm of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This would be fun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This would be fun: That amplified and Canuck would get his sleet/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That amplified and Canuck would get his sleet/ZR. he can take one for the team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 he can take one for the team I already took 2009-2010 for the team. Too bad karma's a crock, otherwise I'd be in line for some seriously loving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z pretty much crushes everyone in one way or another pertaining to the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 he can take one for the team If he takes any more for the team, he'll be down for the count! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If he takes any more for the team, he'll be down for the count! Sing it sister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I already took 2009-2010 for the team. Too bad karma's a crock, otherwise I'd be in line for some seriously loving. you're a good sport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Snow does not have a 1:1 ratio with its liquid content. 10:1 is a rule of thumb, but it can be lower, and often is higher. Roughly speaking, 77.5cm of snow = 77.5mm of liquid. So, 802mm of 2010's 880mm precip fell in the form of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 So, 802mm of 2010's 880mm precip fell in the form of rain? Ballpark, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 patheic weak clipper trying it's best.....that said, no matter how sad, it's nice to have snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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