dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Exactly. Go from 30 to 0 with no storm will be utter heartbreak. Nothing better then watch the snow fall with the temps falling as fast behind it. 0 at 30 then 6" at 15 then 12" at 0. I can handle that. I am staying grounded but at DAY it shows .81" with ratios possibly getting as high as 35:1 for the last 6 hours of QPF. Too far out but generally speaking .81" could get to near the foot level before the temp takes over as the main story. Josh What's the qpf and temps look like for cmh on that? I posted the potential for a storm on or around the 16th on my blog. I'm on my phone, so I can't look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What's the qpf and temps look like for cmh on that? I posted the potential for a storm on or around the 16th on my blog. I'm on my phone, so I can't look. SAT 12Z 15-JAN -6.5 -4.8 1018 98 96 0.01 548 534 SUN 00Z 16-JAN -0.7 -4.8 1016 98 69 0.07 549 536 SUN 12Z 16-JAN -6.0 -2.9 1016 98 97 0.16 550 538 MON 00Z 17-JAN -2.3 -0.1 1006 100 86 0.41 545 540 MON 12Z 17-JAN -7.6 -4.0 1009 99 57 0.05 538 531 TUE 00Z 18-JAN -14.7 -17.2 1017 97 59 0.14 527 515 .84". A few shaky hours showing it getting to near 0 at 850 but specifics are not important right now. But .84" so 8-10" for CMH in a general sense. The .14" at -17 C 850 could be a last 6 hours of a quick 3" to get that total to the 10 mark or so. 13º C drop in 6 hours probably would invite rapid dendrite growth and really turn that snow to big and fluffy flakes piling it up quickly. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SAT 12Z 15-JAN -6.5 -4.8 1018 98 96 0.01 548 534 SUN 00Z 16-JAN -0.7 -4.8 1016 98 69 0.07 549 536 SUN 12Z 16-JAN -6.0 -2.9 1016 98 97 0.16 550 538 MON 00Z 17-JAN -2.3 -0.1 1006 100 86 0.41 545 540 MON 12Z 17-JAN -7.6 -4.0 1009 99 57 0.05 538 531 TUE 00Z 18-JAN -14.7 -17.2 1017 97 59 0.14 527 515 .84". A few shaky hours showing it getting to near 0 at 850 but specifics are not important right now. But .84" so 8-10" for CMH in a general sense. The .14" at -17 C 850 could be a last 6 hours of a quick 3" to get that total to the 10 mark or so. 13º C drop in 6 hours probably would invite rapid dendrite growth and really turn that snow to big and fluffy flakes piling it up quickly. Josh Yea it gets close at the height of the storm, but too soon to worry about specifics. Main thing is seeing the arctic blast coming with a major storm for someone.. Still a long ways out but something definitely worth watching. Would have to imagine the possibility of some strong winds coming in behind the front. But where do you get you MOS data for the ecm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It’s nice to see the Euro start looking more interesting, But I can’t help but think we see a stung out dingle berry system prior to the Artic pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It’s nice to see the Euro start looking more interesting, But I can’t help but think we see a stung out dingle berry system prior to the Artic pain. There is always that chance and this thing could just trickle in slowly as an arctic high. Keeping my hype levels at a minimum for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't mind some brutal arctic air, but I'd really like to get a few inches of snow first to help insulate my garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SAT 12Z 15-JAN -6.5 -4.8 1018 98 96 0.01 548 534 SUN 00Z 16-JAN -0.7 -4.8 1016 98 69 0.07 549 536 SUN 12Z 16-JAN -6.0 -2.9 1016 98 97 0.16 550 538 MON 00Z 17-JAN -2.3 -0.1 1006 100 86 0.41 545 540 MON 12Z 17-JAN -7.6 -4.0 1009 99 57 0.05 538 531 TUE 00Z 18-JAN -14.7 -17.2 1017 97 59 0.14 527 515 .84". A few shaky hours showing it getting to near 0 at 850 but specifics are not important right now. But .84" so 8-10" for CMH in a general sense. The .14" at -17 C 850 could be a last 6 hours of a quick 3" to get that total to the 10 mark or so. 13º C drop in 6 hours probably would invite rapid dendrite growth and really turn that snow to big and fluffy flakes piling it up quickly. Josh with the storm driving nw of us and very cold air in place....i'm wondering if our neck of the woods is dealing more with an icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Honestly I like the storm threat with the incoming arctic outbreak. Both the GFS/ECM suggest a potential Pacific trough ejecting as a baroclinic waves over the plains and tracking E and ushering in the Arctic pain. Could be a widespread event. yes i agree should be an interesting BZ setting up, ptype will be an issue for some, but at least some excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Actually just checking the gfs in that timeframe and it has quite a bit of widespread precip coming in with the arctic front.....for all of us. Looks like another long week ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It’s looking pretty likely one of the major pieces of the big storm puzzle will be in play, just hope we can avoid premature ejaculation this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Glad the 06Z GFS got off the crack--that was an oddball looking run for the long range. 0Z ECM last night was amazing...this 12Z GFS looks similar. Hype levels back up a little...but I am keeping myself grounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Meh, flow never really turns off the gulf until well east of here, front blasts through with little fan fair. Slow this thing down a little and it's congrats MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Glad the 06Z GFS got off the crack--that was an oddball looking run for the long range. 0Z ECM last night was amazing...this 12Z GFS looks similar. Hype levels back up a little...but I am keeping myself grounded. baro why aren't the models bringing the warm air ahead of the advancing arctic front??? both the gfs and euro would paint a wintry blast here as well, even with the initial storm up thru the n. plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 baro why aren't the models bringing the warm air ahead of the advancing arctic front??? both the gfs and euro would paint a wintry blast here as well, even with the initial storm up thru the n. plains. Depends on the amplitude of the ejecting wave, how far N it is, etc. A longwave trough scenario would bring in mixing issues down S into your territory similar to 0Z CMC. I don't buy a deep longwave yet like the CMC, but the 0Z ECM was a nice solution for a lot of folks. 12Z GFS looks decent, but wouldn't be a big a long lasting event with a wound up cyclone because the wave is too low of an amplitude. For now a threat is the best we can do. A threat is better than none I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 wow, i just re-checked and the gfs never really plows the brutal cold air south. It heads more east and out. Temps looks slightly below normal thru most of the ov and greatlakes at best. Hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 wow, i just re-checked and the gfs never really plows the brutal cold air south. It heads more east and out. Temps looks slightly below normal thru most of the ov and greatlakes at best. Hmmmmm by the 20th most of canada is -12 or above at 850. by the 23rd virtually no cold air (relative to January), anywhere in the conus or canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 by the 20th most of canada is -12 or above at 850. by the 23rd virtually no cold air (relative to January), anywhere in the conus or canada. Yeah the brutally cold may stay in Canada and along the border. Sucks really, but ECM hinted at this with a more zonal flow and shallow penetration of the arctic front. Interested to see what the 12Z GEFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z not nearly as cold. Still shows a decent cold shot, but nothing like it was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 by the 20th most of canada is -12 or above at 850. by the 23rd virtually no cold air (relative to January), anywhere in the conus or canada. The earlier GFS runs were probably overdone, but with the major EPO block forming I have to think we get a decent arctic dump at some point. -20F temps? Probly not...But a pretty solid cold shot looks good IMO. Not very long lasting though if the NAO block is weak/neutral as models currently suggest. Stratosphere hinting at a little warming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm having trouble believing the GFS thermal fields associated with the D7-8 system. With the track of the storm, and such a strong southerly flow out ahead of the front, I have to think temps are going to warmer than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm having trouble believing the GFS thermal fields associated with the D7-8 system. With the track of the storm, and such a strong southerly flow out ahead of the front, I have to think temps are going to warmer than advertised. The flow doesn't really go southerly for a while, it's more out of the southwest and not straight out of the gulf. 12z GFS ensembles all show this thing unfolding in multiple lame pieces and not a big daddy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The flow doesn't really go southerly for a while, it's more out of the southwest and not straight out of the gulf. 12z GFS ensembles all show this thing unfolding in multiple lame pieces and not a big daddy storm. Regardless if the winds are S, SW, or SE, none of those directions are typically supportive of CAD. Verbatim, GFS is indicating this precip is snow or sleet well S & E of the sfc low track. Maybe it's a truncation issue, but I don't buy that for a second: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Regardless if the winds are S, SW, or SE, none of those directions are typically supportive of CAD. Verbatim, GFS is indicating this precip is snow or sleet well S & E of the sfc low track. Maybe it's a truncation issue, but I don't buy that for a second: The GFS after its July upgrade is not truncated until after hour 192. That said, there is a lot of low level cold air to displace from the previous system...I don't find the thermals unrealistic under that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Regardless if the winds are S, SW, or SE, none of those directions are typically supportive of CAD. Verbatim, GFS is indicating this precip is snow or sleet well S & E of the sfc low track. Maybe it's a truncation issue, but I don't buy that for a second: The whole thing is a discombobulated mess and despite the unfavorable direction, the flow isn't all that strong. I just don't think we see the spacing to allow heights to crank and send real warm air north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The GFS after its July upgrade is not truncated until after hour 192. That said, there is a lot of low level cold air to displace from the previous system...I don't find the thermals unrealistic under that scenario. Hard to go against your word, but I don't think I've ever had accumulating snow or sleet with a sub 990 low NW of Lk Superior and with a boundary layer flow from the S/SSW. If you're right, I'll give you mad props. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The whole thing is a discombobulated mess and despite the unfavorable direction, the flow isn't all that strong. I just don't think we see the spacing to allow heights to crank and send real warm air north. As with B_I, mad props if you're right. Intuitively to me, that screams rain or slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hard to go against your word, but I don't think I've ever had accumulating snow or sleet with a sub 990 low NW of Lk Superior and with a boundary layer flow from the S/SSW. If you're right, I'll give you mad props. Haha well I am not making a forecast call, just saying that the 12Z GFS run verbatim isn't unrealistic. This thing can honestly play out a million different ways. Hopefully 12Z ECM brings the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 As with B_I, mad props if you're right. Intuitively to me, that screams rain or slop. Here is the thermal profile at 192 for you. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=677&sounding.y=250&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=12&fhour=192¶meter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12Z ECM looks a lot like the GFS through 168 with a low amplitude but intense S/W ejecting east. Hopefully the ECM delivers the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12Z ECM looks a lot like the GFS through 168 with a low amplitude but intense S/W ejecting east. Hopefully the ECM delivers the pain. similar-ish latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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