GL/MW/OV Jan 2011 Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

Snowpack is going to take a hit everywhere

Bowme screw hole is the lolz

[Hoosier]

Hey canuck, the 18z GFS has a present for you around 276 hours.

[Chicago WX]

Hoosier and I were talking about this the other night, but our local TV met had a pretty stellar December forecast, from his winter outlook made back in the Fall. Luck or skill I'm not sure, because I don't follow him all that closely. Regardless, his thoughts for January for LAF are pretty much a torch with above normal precipitation. But February will be rockin'. We'll see if he continues his hot streak. Below taken from his blog. http://blogs.wlfi.com/category/chads-wlfi-weather-blog/

OVERALL SYNOPSIS FOR JANUARY:

Cold Snowy December, to Milder, Wet January

This December will go down as one of the snowiest, coldest Decembers on record. Everything with the winter forecast is on-track with this cold, snowy December & now a much milder January with below-normal snowfall & overall above-normal temperatures.

I do not see any big cold snaps through at least January 15. In fact, we may see t’storms & 50s & 60s by mid January. The pattern looks mild & wet through most of the month.

The math still points towards a cold, snowy February with the heaviest snowfall of the entire winter occurring in February. I also believe the coldest night-time temperature of the winter will occur in February.

[Hoosier]

Hoosier and I were talking about this the other night, but our local TV met had a pretty stellar December forecast, from his winter outlook made back in the Fall. Luck or skill I'm not sure, because I don't follow him all that closely. Regardless, his thoughts for January for LAF are pretty much a torch with above normal precipitation. But February will be rockin'. We'll see if he continues his hot streak. Below taken from his blog. http://blogs.wlfi.com/category/chads-wlfi-weather-blog/

OVERALL SYNOPSIS FOR JANUARY:

Cold Snowy December, to Milder, Wet January

This December will go down as one of the snowiest, coldest Decembers on record. Everything with the winter forecast is on-track with this cold, snowy December & now a much milder January with below-normal snowfall & overall above-normal temperatures.

I do not see any big cold snaps through at least January 15. In fact, we may see t’storms & 50s & 60s by mid January. The pattern looks mild & wet through most of the month.

The math still points towards a cold, snowy February with the heaviest snowfall of the entire winter occurring in February. I also believe the coldest night-time temperature of the winter will occur in February.

I don't see a torch month here. The NAO just refuses to go positive and until it does, it's gonna be hard to get sustained warmth in this part of the country. Then there's always the possibility of another severe -AO episode although it might hold off until later in winter. Milder than December, yes. I've only recently gotten into the long range stuff so I don't have the confidence that others might, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

[KeenerWx]

I don't see a torch month here. The NAO just refuses to go positive and until it does, it's gonna be hard to get sustained warmth in this part of the country. Then there's always the possibility of another severe -AO episode although it might hold off until later in winter. Milder than December, yes. I've only recently gotten into the long range stuff so I don't have the confidence that others might, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

February heaviest snow of the winter? If that's the case, LAF will be heading towards a top 10 winter.

[Chicago WX]

I don't see a torch month here. The NAO just refuses to go positive and until it does, it's gonna be hard to get sustained warmth in this part of the country. Then there's always the possibility of another severe -AO episode although it might hold off until later in winter. Milder than December, yes. I've only recently gotten into the long range stuff so I don't have the confidence that others might, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

I pretty much agree with your thoughts. Also I'm locking in less snowfall for us in January than we saw in December. Really going out on a limb there.

[snowstormcanuck]

Hey canuck, the 18z GFS has a present for you around 276 hours.

Stocking up on the milk and toilet paper as we speak.

[A-L-E-K]

Big plains bomb starting to looking like it will pull up lame and long range looking boring. zzzzz

[Stevo6899]

Enough with the storms cutting way west of the great lakes. ND and Minnesota don't need to be seeing anymore snow, especially with this weeks 2 storms back to back. Come on already!

[Chicago WX]

Big plains bomb starting to looking like it will pull up lame and long range looking boring. zzzzz

And I was just getting used to 4-5" of snow every week here, as has happened with this December.

Relatively mild, dry, and boring in the extended FTL.

[Powerball]

You know it's going to happen though.

Once I'm done school in April I'm seeking employment in a city or town with a snowier climate. 07-08/08-09 were nice but they and the other "snowy" winters don't come close to evening out the crap I've had to endure the last 15 years. I'm getting sick of it.

Oswego, NY, you can't lose.

You may miss out on the synoptic snows, but the lake effect snows will surely make up for it (average 100"+ per season).

[snowstormcanuck]

Oswego, NY, you can't lose.

You may miss out on the synoptic snows, but the lake effect snows will surely make up for it (average 100"+ per season).

East of Lk Ontario they get the best of both worlds. Huge LES, aided by upsloping, plus they catch at least the fringes of some big time nor'easters. And I'm sure there are places in the Tug Hill that average over 200" easy.

[snowstormcanuck]

My mistake. Over 300"

[A-L-E-K]

Shame the area isn't exactly a hot bed of employment prospects. If you love snow and are looking to move, move out west and spend your free time in the mountains.

[SEMIweather]

My mistake. Over 300"

At least I know where to retire now.

[A-L-E-K]

12z GFS is lame

[snowstormcanuck]

Shame the area isn't exactly a hot bed of employment prospects. If you love snow and are looking to move, move out west and spend your free time in the mountains.

Nah, the Tug Hill is an option for snow loving retirees and lottery winners. Unless you're a pro snow plow operator, it's going to be tough to find a job. And even if you are, I'm guessing the market's pretty saturated.

[Organizing Low]

yeah but that stretch between Watertown and Syracuse is boreville central....but admittedly the lake effect is impressive, its like driving through a tunnel there sometimes lol

Syracuse wouldnt be too bad. Defintely the most reliable city to get snow in the northeast IMO.

Not the most thrilling town either, but at least there are people there and its within a stones throw of even better lake effect just to the north easily accessbile on I-81.

[snowstormcanuck]

yeah but that stretch between Watertown and Syracuse is boreville central....but admittedly the lake effect is impressive, its like driving through a tunnel there sometimes lol

Syracuse wouldnt be too bad. Defintely the most reliable city to get snow in the northeast IMO.

Not the most thrilling town either, but at least there are people there and its within a stones throw of even better lake effect just to the north easily accessbile on I-81.

preemptive 1,000 post congrats.

[Organizing Low]

preemptive 1,000 post congrats.

thank you :thumbsup:

[Powerball]

Nah, the Tug Hill is an option for snow loving retirees and lottery winners. Unless you're a pro snow plow operator, it's going to be tough to find a job. And even if you are, I'm guessing the market's pretty saturated.

Your best bet would be Denver or Salt Lake City if you're looking for an employment center and weather that's not, well, boring.

[Powerball]

Shame the area isn't exactly a hot bed of employment prospects. If you love snow and are looking to move, move out west and spend your free time in the mountains.

On the other hand, they do have SUNY Oswego up there, and college towns typically do have relatively decent employemnt prospects. So while the area not necessarily a Detroit, Chicago or Toronto, it's not really the middle of nowhere either.

[snowstormcanuck]

Your best bet would be Denver or Salt Lake City if you're looking for an employment center and weather that's not, well, boring.

The southern periphery of the Lk Huron snowbelt is only a 20 minute drive to my N/W. My prelim. plan is to move somehwere there. I'd get a 20-30" increase in my annual snowfall, but I'd still be within commuting distance to Toronto.

I'm not in the market for tremendous amounts of snow (rockies/e of Lk Ontario), just better than the absolute crap I'm getting right now. And if -NAO/-AO is in the beginning of some sort of decadal cycle (see the thread on the main forum), then my recent snow woes might not just be an ephemeral run of bad luck, making a move more of a necessity.

[snowstormcanuck]

Ugh, blocking back on the OP 12z GFS beyond D7.

[daddylonglegs]

Nice day today. Sunshine, temps going to around 30F... Perfect winter weather.

[A-L-E-K]

Ugh, blocking back on the OP 12z GFS beyond D7.

that run was such an epic fail, maximum lameness.

[Hoosier]

Since a follow up wave is looking unlikely and any severe prospects around here seem to be close to nil, my rooting interest is in retaining any of the snowpack. We should spend something close to 60 hours above freezing with about 30 of those above 40 degrees. Nothing eats away snow like dense fog and then we'll be raining into it. I expect to lose at least 90% but wouldn't be surprised if we lost all of it (save the huge piles of course). If anything survives it's going to be a glacier.

[Trent]

On the other hand, they do have SUNY Oswego up there, and college towns typically do have relatively decent employemnt prospects. So while the area not necessarily a Detroit, Chicago or Toronto, it's not really the middle of nowhere either.

Suburban Cleveland's not a bad choice either, just have to live on the east side of town where the average is 100"+ per year. East you feast, by the lake, not a flake.

[toronto blizzard]

The southern periphery of the Lk Huron snowbelt is only a 20 minute drive to my N/W. My prelim. plan is to move somehwere there. I'd get a 20-30" increase in my annual snowfall, but I'd still be within commuting distance to Toronto.

I'm not in the market for tremendous amounts of snow (rockies/e of Lk Ontario), just better than the absolute crap I'm getting right now. And if -NAO/-AO is in the beginning of some sort of decadal cycle (see the thread on the main forum), then my recent snow woes might not just be an ephemeral run of bad luck, making a move more of a necessity.

I am with you on that. I cant stand everyone else getting snow and here in the snow dome GTA we get nothing. Residents that live here and that are saying "I absolutely love this weather because theres no snow" is making me sick to here. We live in Canada for crying out loud.

Sorry for my little rant. I am snow-starved if you know what I mean

[Organizing Low]

reading through the NYC postmortem, seeing the radar images of superbands.......really reminds me that in terms of severe, persistent winter weather, there have only been 2 such events here in the eastern lakes that I can remember

93 Superstorm

December 2007 storm with 6 hour Superband from hell

even the OV Blizzard which dumped over 2 feet in ottawa in march 08 did not have anywhere near sustained severe condiitions, maybe for a few hours, but more a long durations snowfall that wasnt ferocious per se.

i was in NYC for the feb 06 event (greatest snowfall ever in central park) and while the snowfall rates were impressive, the winds werent and thus the conditions were not as severe. ....not even as severe as the 2 events i listed above in a region well away from any water.

in nyc, it would seem that the blizzard of 96 and this past event are the 2 most severe and ferocious in recent memory.

it really puts in persepctive how rare it is to get into a severe defo of band of snow with strong winds, that persists......both here, and there.....anywhere.