baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It could be a very strong event potentially too. Yeah with such an amazing arctic front/thermal gradient, it wouldn't take much of an upper wave to unleash the atmospheric pain. Keeping my hype levels down for now, but the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah with such an amazing arctic front/thermal gradient, it wouldn't take much of an upper wave to unleash the atmospheric pain. Keeping my hype levels down for now, but the potential is there. Its ok to have hype levels up once and a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Its ok to have hype levels up once and a while... hype levels lead to sadness and disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hype levels lead to sadness and disappointment Haha yep. Hard to get excited when it's so far away still. I hope we don't see a series of shortwaves rob the huge potential like the storm last week. Hopefully we can get one big storm to blow up instead of the multi-wave waste scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Its ok to have hype levels up once and a while... I am usually pessimistic to a T, but I let my guard down for the GFS fantasy New Years Plains super bomb/crushing Panhandle Hooker. Instead we got a junky leading wave that spoiled everything. But for this event, I will say I am optimistically cautious. Either way the cold is coming and that will be great! hype levels lead to sadness and disappointment See my above post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Haha yep. Hard to get excited when it's so far away still. I hope we don't see a series of shortwaves rob the huge potential like the storm last week. Hopefully we can get one big storm to blow up instead of the multi-wave waste scenario. My thoughts exactly! See my previous post. The New Years threat ended up being a pile of junk destroyed by a weakling low amplitude wave. Even then it still developed a blizzard across ND. Shows what that could have done in one strong baroclinic wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ....Either way the cold is coming and that will be great! For those of us who lack snow cover the cold wave will be hard to get excited about unless that changes in the next 5-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hey, the 00Z GGEM has become more robust and organized with this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My thoughts exactly! See my previous post. The New Years threat ended up being a pile of junk destroyed by a weakling low amplitude wave. Even then it still developed a blizzard across ND. Shows what that could have done in one strong baroclinic wave. I think there is those who are as well happy with *just* a 2-5/3-6/4-8 event rather then having a bomb every time as most know big bombs are not as easy to come by. Thus the excitement factor over such events. Believe me i love big epic bombs ( especially IMBY ) but i am content with the other stuff to tide me over till the big one does show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Climo would definitely favor a major arctic intrusion, so we'll have to see how it goes regarding the storm potential. We're long overdue for a widespread high impact storm for the Midwest, so hopefully we can get something out this setup. Seems like we've had very localized (relatively speaking) snow events so far this winter. We need a big storm that can spread the wealth to most of the MW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think there is those who are as well happy with *just* a 2-5/3-6/4-8 event rather then having a bomb every time as most know big bombs are not as easy to come by. Thus the excitement factor over such events. Believe me i love big epic bombs ( especially IMBY ) but i am content with the other stuff to tide me over till the big one does show. Yeah I don't mind smaller events either, and I personally love a good Alberta Clipper, but big storms need to come every once in a while. We haven't had one yet this year in terms of widespread and significant. The Northern Plains blizzard was close, but in reality somewhat localized for the good snow. Climo would definitely favor a major arctic intrusion, so we'll have to see how it goes regarding the storm potential. We're long overdue for a widespread high impact storm for the Midwest, so hopefully we can get something out this setup. Seems like we've had very localized (relatively speaking) snow events so far this winter. We need a big storm that can spread the wealth to most of the MW members. Yeah agreed, it is time to unleash a monster bomb across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 For those of us who lack snow cover the cold wave will be hard to get excited about unless that changes in the next 5-10 days. Yeah hopefully the ground gets covered as much as possible if that type of cold does come or it may get rather ugly quick as far as bursting pipes etc are concerned. Plus i am pretty sure that a lacking snowcover will take a bit away from the potential cold. Personally the below 0 stuff does nothing for me unless it is breaking a record as such cold tends to screw up the Lake stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think there is those who are as well happy with *just* a 2-5/3-6/4-8 event rather then having a bomb every time as most know big bombs are not as easy to come by. Thus the excitement factor over such events. Believe me i love big epic bombs ( especially IMBY ) but i am content with the other stuff to tide me over till the big one does show. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think with the PV crashing south, as many of you have already stated, the potential for a pretty sizable and widespread winter storm would seem to be pretty high in the Jan 15-18th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah I don't mind smaller events either, and I personally love a good Alberta Clipper, but big storms need to come every once in a while. We haven't had one yet this year in terms of widespread and significant. The Northern Plains blizzard was close, but in reality somewhat localized for the good snow. Yeah agreed, it is time to unleash a monster bomb across the region. Oh.. As for widespread big storm i agree 100%! Been way to long especially in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah hopefully the ground gets covered as much as possible if that type of cold does come or it may get rather ugly quick as far as bursting pipes etc are concerned. Plus i am pretty sure that a lacking snowcover will take a bit away from the potential cold. Personally the below 0 stuff does nothing for me unless it is breaking a record as such cold tends to screw up the Lake stuff. Yeah hopefully we'll lay some snow down. Right at the coldest time of year climatologically so there is a lot of potential for it to get pretty brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The ECMWF at 168 hours has a nice looking W coast S/W ready to eject into the plains. Looks better than the already decent 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 we got a chance for 1-2 tomorrow am. I hope we can get lucky and hit the jackpot and get a 3 inch hit tomorrow. Every now and again these clippers work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro has a sub 990 mb low in n. michigan at 216. 0c line is down in Tennesse, widespread lt-mod precip from MI, IL, IN, OH, WI etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I cannot wait to see QPF maps later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Another storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I cannot wait to see QPF maps later Wow amazing. I am trying to keep myself grounded right now...hard to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I cannot wait to see QPF maps later do you have a 192hr image? thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 do you have a 192hr image? thanks in advance Here you go Prins...go to 850 temps/SLP for those maps. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here you go Prins...go to 850 temps/SLP for those maps. http://raleighwx.ame...dels/ecmwf.html thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't have the maps, but here is where the low is etc. HR 198: Sub 1000 MB LOW in NE/KS area. LT-MOD precip near the MSP area. HR 204: Sub 1000 MB LOW in MN/IA area. LT precip across MN. HR 210: Sub 996 MB LOW in WI. LT-MOD precip across MN/WI. LT precip in N. WI. LT-MOD precip also across IL/IN/OH HR 216: Sub 990 MB LOW in N. MI. MOD-HVY Precip in E. WI/OH areas. LT-MOD precip across most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow amazing. I am trying to keep myself grounded right now...hard to do it. That is some absurd CAA. LAF is above 0C at 210 hours and then -14C at 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Another storm? Wow one hell of a Temp Gradient ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That is some absurd CAA. LAF is above 0C at 210 hours and then -14C at 216. I know! Insanity. I am getting really excited, almost weenie level. I should really calm myself down. I know better. Either way, all three globals usher in the arctic pain with some sort of large storm along the polar front. Such a massive outbreak--would be a shame for it to come in without a BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I know! Insanity. I am getting really excited, almost weenie level. I should really calm myself down. I know better. Either way, all three globals usher in the arctic pain with some sort of large storm along the polar front. Such a massive outbreak--would be a shame for it to come in without a BOOM. Exactly. Go from 30 to 0 with no storm will be utter heartbreak. Nothing better then watch the snow fall with the temps falling as fast behind it. 0 at 30 then 6" at 15 then 12" at 0. I can handle that. I am staying grounded but at DAY it shows .81" with ratios possibly getting as high as 35:1 for the last 6 hours of QPF. Too far out but generally speaking .81" could get to near the foot level before the temp takes over as the main story. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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