Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Surprise snowfall in Madison today, steady light snow currently and it's accumulating decently. Heaviest snow band is moving into WI now and will affect Madison. It would appear to be frontogenetic in nature since the precip pattern is quasi-linear, but the forcing must be at some level not usually analyzed. As I wrote this the snow increased to moderate, and we're not even near the main band yet. How is it a surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 How is it a surprise? Models had no precip in the forecast for MSN, and the NWS didn't expect any accumulations. Everything is snow covered now and very wintry, coming down heavy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nah, this winter's finished. Its Brutal Outside (Cold,Brisk and Dark) with off and snow Showers to me its still winter! Just snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nah, this winter's finished. Now that Canuck has 100 dollars on the line, he has a very distinct reason to be pessimistic about his winter chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know we have a lot to go through, but this Arctic plunge looks like a quick hitting event followed up by more potential blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Now that Canuck has 100 dollars on the line, he has a very distinct reason to be pessimistic about his winter chances. Yeah I'd be poo-pooing winter if it was gunna cost me 100 bucks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know we have a lot to go through, but this Arctic plunge looks like a quick hitting event followed up by more potential blocking. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Models had no precip in the forecast for MSN, and the NWS didn't expect any accumulations. You're wrong on both accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You're wrong on both accounts. Madison only predicted a half inch so there really wasn't all that much forecasted anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This arctic blast is getting me excited. Bring on the arctic pain. Both the GFS/ECM suggest the first blast may be a shallow blast of cold air mainly over the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. Some GFS members, including the 18Z, have a second and deeper arctic blast. I love the highs in the -20s across MN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This arctic blast is getting me excited. Bring on the arctic pain. Both the GFS/ECM suggest the first blast may be a shallow blast of cold air mainly over the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. Some GFS members, including the 18Z, have a second and deeper arctic blast. I love the highs in the -20s across MN! You sir are a bit crazy eh? j/k As for the cold shot I hope we can at least stay above 10F here during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You sir are a bit crazy eh? j/k As for the cold shot I hope we can at least stay above 10F here during the day. I don't mind a little cold air. Something different, something exciting. Of course I wouldn't want it to last for 2 weeks or anything, but a quick arctic blast and numbing temperatures is fun for a little bit. Living in ND for 6+ years also helped me become accustomed to brutal cold. Inland penetration of the LES event coming up will make a big difference for you guys regarding the potential blast. Interesting to see how this thing pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This arctic blast is getting me excited. Bring on the arctic pain. Both the GFS/ECM suggest the first blast may be a shallow blast of cold air mainly over the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. Some GFS members, including the 18Z, have a second and deeper arctic blast. I love the highs in the -20s across MN! Im with you, I dont mind some good cold air with no snowpack down, and its January so I expect it. So many people around here complain about it getting cold, move somewhere south is what I tell them. Although if we are getting snow in March and bringing down cold air, then I have a problem cause that screws up chasing around here and warm fronts not getting north of SPI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nah, this winter's finished. I'm just happy to be back in Toronto. I wouldn't want to live in Hawaii during the winter season. I was already homesick on the first day there. I have a feeling our neck of the woods is going to experience a period of great winter weather. Some mets (eg. HM) have mentioned that a very intense gradient pattern could set up shop, perhaps in February. This could give us a lot of snow, depending on where the boundary sets up. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the winter of 2010-11. Yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This arctic blast is getting me excited. Bring on the arctic pain. Both the GFS/ECM suggest the first blast may be a shallow blast of cold air mainly over the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. Some GFS members, including the 18Z, have a second and deeper arctic blast. I love the highs in the -20s across MN! Hopefully a storm can form to bring this bitter cold down this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Now that Canuck has 100 dollars on the line, he has a very distinct reason to be pessimistic about his winter chances. I'm not a wealthy man, but $100 comes and goes. I'd gladly pay up for a massive second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 you should have stayed in Hawaii! Nah. I can't stand temperatures in the low 80s during Christmas. Does not seem right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm not a wealthy man, but $100 comes and goes. I'd gladly pay up for a massive second half. The university said Waterloo received 30cm of snow in November and 28cm of snow in December. 58cm + 4cm from yesterday= 62cm total so far this season for Waterloo. Just doesn't seem right... I think the university made a mistake in the tally somewhere. It's barely snowed here aside from 14cm back on Dec 12-13. Everything else has mostly been a light dusting here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm just happy to be back in Toronto. I wouldn't want to live in Hawaii during the winter season. I was already homesick on the first day there. I have a feeling our neck of the woods is going to experience a period of great winter weather. Some mets (eg. HM) have mentioned that a very intense gradient pattern could set up shop, perhaps in February. This could give us a lot of snow, depending on where the boundary sets up. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the winter of 2010-11. Yet. Yes, I'm definitely a big fan of four seasons. Couldn't celebrate Christmas with a palm tree. I'm on reverse onus with this winter. It has to prove to me that there's reason to believe, otherwise I'll assume it's over. Btw...Pearson has a very good shot at rebreaking the futility record. They're mired at sub 3" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm not a wealthy man, but $100 comes and goes. I'd gladly pay up for a massive second half. Wait so do we pay you if you are right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes, I'm definitely a big fan of four seasons. Couldn't celebrate Christmas with a palm tree. I'm on reverse onus with this winter. It has to prove to me that there's reason to believe, otherwise I'll assume it's over. Btw...Pearson has a very good shot at rebreaking the futility record. They're mired at sub 3" for the season. I did just fine with a palm tree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The university said Waterloo received 30cm of snow in November and 28cm of snow in December. 58cm + 4cm from yesterday= 62cm total so far this season for Waterloo. Just doesn't seem right... I think the university made a mistake in the tally somewhere. It's barely snowed here aside from 14cm back on Dec 12-13. Everything else has mostly been a light dusting here and there. The December number seems ok, but that November number is suspicious. Does it break it down by date? Waterloo-Wellington Airport had 2.1cm for November. I can't imagine that big a difference over such a small distance, unless it was some type of localized LES deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wait so do we pay you if you are right? No, it wasn't a bet. See, I have the worst luck in the world. I thought if I could trick the powers that control the universe that the 100 bucks means more to me than the 30" of snow (like it would for most normal people) I could convince them to deliver the snow. They're probably too smart for that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I did just fine with a palm tree... oh, the humanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The December number seems ok, but that November number is suspicious. Does it break it down by date? Waterloo-Wellington Airport had 2.1cm for November. I can't imagine that big a difference over such a small distance, unless it was some type of localized LES deal. Just realized I read the summaries incorrectly. Itooks like I gave myself an extra 30cm of snow on credit... It's actually 14" I'm at, not 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 oh, the humanity. $99.99 at Canadian Tire back in November. I couldn't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I did just fine with a palm tree... I want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 No, it wasn't a bet. See, I have the worst luck in the world. I thought if I could trick the powers that control the universe that the 100 bucks means more to me than the 30" of snow (like it would for most normal people) I could convince them to deliver the snow. They're probably too smart for that though. You should up the ante to 100 dollars per person...that may get the attention of the weather gods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You should up the ante to 100 dollars per person...that may get the attention of the weather gods. Interesting. But if it works, lovely as it would be to see the snow, I won't be able to pay the money. Then stebo will hire some goons to break my thumbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Interesting. But if it works, lovely as it would be to see the snow, I won't be able to pay the money. Then stebo will hire some goons to break my thumbs. lol I'm not a mobster, plus I'd just come collect in person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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