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GL/MW/OV Jan 2011 Discussion


TheWeatherPimp

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Perhaps a little, Im sure that was negligible. the drifts were massive, Ive seen pictures from my uncles mom, but I only have the one my mom took. Makes it hard to believe it was just 10" of new snow.

DETROIT....Precip..Snow..7am Depth

1-24-78......0.20".....2.9"......5"

1-25-78......0.29".....1.9"......7"

1-26-78......1.39".....7.8"......9"

1-27-78......0.03".....0.4"....15"

(DTW peak depth 15" on Jan 27/28th)

ANN ARB...Precip...Snow...7am Depth

1-24-78......0.11".....1.1"......9"

1-25-78......0.20".....2.0"....11"

1-26-78......1.65"...11.6"....20"

1-27-78......0.11".....1.6"....17"

(ARB peak depth 20" on Jan 26th)

TOLEDO....Precip...Snow...7am Depth

1-24-78......0.14".....0.5"......6"

1-25-78......0.31".....1.8"......5"

1-26-78......1.24"...10.2"......9"

1-27-78......0.07".....1.3"....16"

(TOL peak depth 19" on Feb 6th)

Here is Battle Creek per Utah.. Last column is peak depth which for here was 31".

1978-01-24	34.0	20.0	0.11	0.2	7
1978-01-25	36.0	26.0	0.05	0.5	7
1978-01-26	28.0	21.0	1.4	18	27
1978-01-27	21.0	13.0	0.12	5	29
1978-01-28	26.0	10.0	0.03	0.5	30
1978-01-29	25.0	15.0	0.02	0.3	30
1978-01-30	20.0	8.0	0	0	30
1978-01-31	24.0	6.0	0.01	0.2	30
1978-02-01	20.0	7.0	0.04	0.5	31

Other station just wnw of here and or nw by a few miles of KBTL.

1978-01-24	31.0	9999	0.02	0.5	10
1978-01-25	30.0	25.0	0.04	0.9	11
1978-01-26	28.0	20.0	2.18	18	28
1978-01-27	23.0	17.0	0.4	4	32
1978-01-28	28.0	15.0	0.2	3	36
1978-01-29	28.0	12.0	0.06	1	37

Here is Jan 67.. Note the date.. Wonder how many realize that?

1967-01-25	55.0	30.0	0.13	0	0
1967-01-26	30.0	22.0	2.11	21.1	19
1967-01-27	26.0	21.0	0.71	7.5	26

Other station.. Jackpot i think?

1967-01-25	59.0	30.0	0.21	0	0
1967-01-26	32.0	21.0	1.01	12.1	12
1967-01-27	26.0	20.0	1.06	18.1	28
1967-01-28	35.0	21.0	0.03	1	29

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looks a tad nippy in western canada. I guess the question remains, where is that headed?

The ECM op and ensemble mean has a developing intense shortwave acting as the opening to the "gates of the arctic". Likely what you would see, if you extrapolated in time the ECM op/mean 500 hpa/850 temperatures, is an increasingly amplified trough with cold air advection spilling into the plains. MN/WI and the Great Lakes are a bullseye for the really cold stuff if you extrapolated the ECM into the future.

Just a tad. Hard to read, what is that, -40C there around the Nunavut/Manitoba border?

-36 C 850 was the coldest I saw off the ECM website--easier to read there.

Colder than the GFS at 850 at the same time. Either way, this cold outbreak could be one of the most impressive in a while for parts of the country.

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The ECM op and ensemble mean has a developing intense shortwave acting as the opening to the "gates of the arctic". Likely what you would see, if you extrapolated in time the ECM op/mean 500 hpa/850 temperatures, is an increasingly amplified trough with cold air advection spilling into the plains. MN/WI and the Great Lakes are a bullseye for the really cold stuff if you extrapolated the ECM into the future.

-36 C 850 was the coldest I saw off the ECM website--easier to read there.

Colder than the GFS at 850 at the same time. Either way, this cold outbreak could be one of the most impressive in a while for parts of the country.

Here is the mean:

post-999-0-95168500-1294230232.gif

You have to look at the loop to see how the trough is developing with time, but it does look as if it is amplifying. This suggest low level cold air advection decreasing with height. In other words, the low level arctic front is "seeping" south. Why is the trough not "digging" through the intermountain W in this configuration? The shallow nature of the front, in this case, is not able to pass over the Rockies and through the intermountain W. The mountains "block" the orderly flow of cold air advection typical over flat land, and as a result, extreme arctic outbreaks are rare in the intermountain W.

The strong surface pressure gradient in the OP MSLP suggests this as the low level flow is "blocked" by the Rockies and "bunches up" in the plains--hence the strong surface pressure gradient.

post-999-0-46300300-1294230520.png

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Ok, so it's

Hoosier

Stebo

Chicago Storm

JoMo

Michsnowfreak

in line for 20 bucks a piece if I crack 30". Love adding cash to the mix. Makes everything more exciting. I've heard even Vegas takes bets on the weather. I'm going to look into that.

Damn, I went to bed too early last night. I could always use a spare $20. BTW, Canadian or U.S. dollars? ;)

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Wow, it's really trending toward suckage around these parts. Looking like a "dusting at best" clipper, then a decent LES event to watch (but not participate IMBY), then the deep freeze. Thinking back to November, this is not how I was envisioning the middle of winter for this part of the country.

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Wow, it's really trending toward suckage around these parts. Looking like a "dusting at best" clipper, then a decent LES event to watch (but not participate IMBY), then the deep freeze. Thinking back to November, this is not how I was envisioning the middle of winter for this part of the country.

Luckily, we are not yet to the middle of winter :) The dead of winter is still 3 weeks away!

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Surprise snowfall in Madison today, steady light snow currently and it's accumulating decently. Heaviest snow band is moving into WI now and will affect Madison.

It would appear to be frontogenetic in nature since the precip pattern is quasi-linear, but the forcing must be at some level not usually analyzed.

As I wrote this the snow increased to moderate, and we're not even near the main band yet.

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