Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I thought the models can be too progressive with a previous system and its confluence pattern? It did the same thing for a time its doing now with the phanton christmas storm. Now the 06z GFS is back to the blocky solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Michsnow was on fire last night love it I can handle boring weather better than about anyone on here, provided I have snowpack. But you take away my snowpack AND keep the boringness...ill come out breathing the fire lol. Like I posted in the clipper thread, its day #4 now with bare ground and seems like an eternity LOL. Not that we dont see bare stretches in most winters, but we also usually see more action. Last measurable snow was Dec 26th with 0.2", last time we had to shovel was with the inch of fluff on Dec 22nd, though really you could get away with only having to shovel one time, that being the Dec 12th snowstorm. Funny thing is though I was chipping at the bottom of the driveway 2 weeks later with that glued on ice/snow. Its funny actually, because imby this is not a SE MI winter....its like a mix of east coast and a northern Minnesota winter. I say east coast because we had a literally gridlocking snowstorm followed by almost nothing. I say Minnesota because we had the cold and the snowcover did not budge, but everything was going to our south. We did get our usual flakes in the air all the time, but thats about the only thing that has resembled a SE MI winter so far lol. It is going to change though, and very soon I think...for starters we have this possible big potential 7-8 days out, but in the more near term, for the hell of it...rhe 12z NAM has TSSN around hour 63-66 for both BTL and DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I've never seen so much of a cluster^&*%....hour 78 on the 12z NAM. Would be nice if all 3 pieces stayed together before they hit the coast for once. I would take the 12z NAM verbatum in a heartbeat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The highs today have overachieved thanks to the daytime heating (high was 33*F and now it's 35). And I say let them continue going up. The more convective instability we can build the better. It's almost like a warm sector of some sort. 925mb temps locally are -4 while behind the "cold fornt (shortwave) it's back into hte mid teens. Same with 85omb temps. They're -9 to -10*C here while they're -14*C in Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I've got 3F here... sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z GFS...here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z GFS looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Impressive...is that all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Impressive...is that all snow? Pretty much...yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Will it correct north or south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 WOW what a difference between the 06Z and 12Z runs! Does 12ZGFS run show the "blocking" weakening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Will it correct north or south? With the Blocking this year, usually south. we will have to wait and see how that plays out and how this all comes together...but for now the models seem to want to bring it in waves.... the most impressive thing will be the Ariel coverage of accumulating snows..I am not sure if we will really see a wide area of 6+ inches like that. some of that from STL south won't be all snow. a first southern wave comes and lays this down" http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=132¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This GFS run has pushed the track about 300-400 miles east of the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GEM looks to have a pretty strong southern wave coming out at 108hrs. 989MB low in the SE part of the Texas Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GEM has a 992MB in SE Kansas with a lot of QPF moving North threw Central IL/IN at 120 hours very cold for the warm side with a low in SE Kansas with some sort of frozen for i70 north..a lot of snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The highs today have overachieved thanks to the daytime heating (high was 33*F and now it's 35). And I say let them continue going up. The more convective instability we can build the better. It's almost like a warm sector of some sort. 925mb temps locally are -4 while behind the "cold fornt (shortwave) it's back into hte mid teens. Same with 85omb temps. They're -9 to -10*C here while they're -14*C in Milwaukee. 36*F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GEM has a 992MB in SE Kansas with a lot of QPF moving North threw Central IL/IN at 120 hours very cold for the warm side with a low in SE Kansas with some sort of frozen for i70 north..a lot of snow and sleet. Psst: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/7118-january-10th-12th-ovmwgl-winter-storm-prospects/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Next run is congrats MSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This thread may have been a bit premature, but in the interest of preventing the discussion from being bifurcated, we should probably post about the Jan 9-13 storm here: http://www.americanw...torm-prospects/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Psst: http://www.americanw...torm-prospects/ If I didn't mispost it in the other thread, I would have beaten you to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Currently have some SCT-BKN CB (cumulonimbus) now. It feels like summertime (which is what I love about lake effect snow showers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MIZ076&warncounty=MIC163&firewxzone=MIZ076&local_place1=Hamtramck+MI&product1=Special+Weather+Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1251 PM EST TUE JAN 4 2011 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-042000- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE- LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE... SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER... PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT 1251 PM EST TUE JAN 4 2011 LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO UNDER A MILE. WHILE MOST PLACES WILL SEE JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW...HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE NEAR A HALF INCH. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW COULD CREATE SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS. DRIVE WITH CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. $$ MM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like a nice snowy day in southern MI. Just seasonable sunny blah here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 41 user(s) are browsing this forum 24 members, 13 guests, 4 anonymous users Our snow pack might be down to nothing but its nice to see the forum growing.. 41 users is pretty good for nothing really to exciting going now or in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 41 user(s) are browsing this forum 24 members, 13 guests, 4 anonymous users Our snow pack might be down to nothing but its nice to see the forum growing.. 41 users is pretty good for nothing really to exciting going now or in the near future. People enjoy viewing our avatars. I kind of miss Cromartie's dog humping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I just had an intense snow shower blast through, so I'm perfectly content for a few days. It produced near blizzard conditons, the flakes were very fine. It left a fresh light coating (less than an inch) on everything. Lapeer County north of I-69 over to Port Huron appears to be getting rocked though. I wouldn't be surprised at all if an isolated 2"-3" total came outof that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I just had an intense snow shower blast through, so I'm perfectly content for a few days. It produced near blizzard conditons, the flakes were very fine. It left a fresh light coating (less than an inch) on everything. Lapeer County north of I-69 over to Port Huron appears to be getting rocked though. I wouldn't be surprised at all if an isolated 2"-3" total came outof that area. Was getting an oil change in Woodhaven, just south of Wyandotte. Whiteouts, probably 0.3-0.4" quick accumulation, but huge feathery flakes, not fine. Was great to be out in, traffic slow and all. But when I get home to Wyandotte there is just a light 0.1" dusting. This is why I have such a love/hate relationship with LES. And wow on DTX discussion in the long range. They dont even mention storm for us, they say texas hooker will leave us totally dry due to Canadian high (though in their forecast they say Chance of Snow on Tues). Dont even mention range of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Was getting an oil change in Woodhaven, just south of Wyandotte. Whiteouts, probably 0.3-0.4" quick accumulation, but huge feathery flakes, not fine. Was great to be out in, traffic slow and all. But when I get home to Wyandotte there is just a light 0.1" dusting. This is why I have such a love/hate relationship with LES. And wow on DTX discussion in the long range. They dont even mention storm for us, they say texas hooker will leave us totally dry due to Canadian high (though in their forecast they say Chance of Snow on Tues). Dont even mention range of solutions. I was over in Grosse Pointe and I also had a pretty decent snow shower (much bigger flakes and higher visiblities), although it was flurrying pretty good the entire time I was out. I was worried I wouldn't see anything at first. That one intense shower was the only one my backyard experienced the entire day. Downtown has been hogging the action too. Liek I said, it felt like a summer day out there with the popcorn showers plus how the winds picked up when the showers came through. Not to mention the showers had a convective nature to them and the CB clouds (in one area it could be pouring snowfalkes, go a block and you have nothing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the mets in the new england thread continue to think the LR pattern in the ensembles support more SWFE and lake redevelopers......PV moving west, trough in the center of the country. could be active for most from new england to the MW/OV, lower lakes with less emphasis on pure coastals. no change in their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Love watching these heavy snowshowers die as they move towards Toronto and then flare up again over the Lake. Last winter in this death hole. I swear to god, buddha, and allah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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