GL/MW/OV Jan 2011 Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

BTW: Do you have the official stats for Detroit in the 90's total Snowfall each year?

Heres since 1990. In 1996-97 the estimated total is at or just above 40 inches. It was the winter when the NWSs across most of the country couldnt get snowfall measurments for some reason.

Its so clear how much better the 00s were than the 90s LOL. The 1990s stick out like a sore thumb, as the 1970s, 1980s, and 2000s all averaged over 45", while the 1990s averages just over 37".

Here is a summary of the total snowfall, snowcover etc for each winter since 1990, but I recommend checking out DTX website. One of the best climate data sections youll find on any NWS website anywhere.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/cms.php?n=decadetable

WINTER                    	SNOWFALL                	1”+ SNWCVR DAYS        	PEAK DEPTH        	BIGGEST SNOWSTORM
1990-91 			31.4”            		33 days                    		7” 				6.8”  (Feb 13/14)
1991-92 			43.5”            		41 days                  		12”   			11.1”  (Jan 14)
1992-93 			52.2”            		48 days                    		7” 				7.5”  (Mar 10)
1993-94 			45.8”            		49 days                  		10”   			10.3”  (Jan 6/7)
1994-95 			33.5”            		39 days                    		7” 				7.6”  (Dec 6/7)
1995-96 			27.6”   	    	  		31 days                 			6” 				5.8”  (Mar 19/20)
1996-97 			40.0”* 	                 	38 days 		                 	5” 					4.5”  (Jan 9)
1997-98 			23.5”            		30 days                    		6” 				4.8”  (Jan 22/23)
1998-99 			49.5”            		41 days                  		24”   			11.3”  (Jan 2/3)
1999-00 			23.7”            		43 days                    		5” 				4.0”  (Feb 18/19)
2000-01 			39.0”            		67 days                  		12” 				6.1”  (Dec 11/12)
2001-02 			33.7”            		30 days                    		8” 				7.6”  (Jan 30/31)
2002-03 			60.9”            		63 days                    		9” 				7.3”  (Feb 22/23)
2003-04 			24.1”            		51 days                    		5” 				4.7”  (Jan 14)
2004-05 			63.8”            		62 days                  		12”   			12.2”  (Jan 22)
2005-06 			36.3”            		40 days                    		8” 				6.2”  (12/9 & 12/15)
2006-07 			30.3”            		43 days                    		8” 				8.5”  (Feb 13/14)
2007-08 			71.7”            		63 days                    		9” 				9.0”  (Dec 15/16)
2008-09 			65.7”            		60 days                  		14” 				7.9”  (Dec 19)
2009-10 			43.7”            		48 days                  		10” 				8.6”  (Feb 9/10)  

[The_Global_Warmer]

Still looking good us here...would want a stronger southern Vort to get some good WAA snows going here.

[dmc76]

Heres since 1990. In 1996-97 the estimated total is at or just above 40 inches. It was the winter when the NWSs across most of the country couldnt get snowfall measurments for some reason.

Its so clear how much better the 00s were than the 90s LOL. The 1990s stick out like a sore thumb, as the 1970s, 1980s, and 2000s all averaged over 45", while the 1990s averages just over 37".

Here is a summary of the total snowfall, snowcover etc for each winter since 1990, but I recommend checking out DTX website. One of the best climate data sections youll find on any NWS website anywhere.

http://www.crh.noaa....p?n=decadetable

WINTER                        SNOWFALL                    1”+ SNWCVR DAYS            PEAK DEPTH            BIGGEST SNOWSTORM
1990-91             31.4”                    33 days                            7”                 6.8”  (Feb 13/14)
1991-92             43.5”                    41 days                          12”               11.1”  (Jan 14)
1992-93             52.2”                    48 days                            7”                 7.5”  (Mar 10)
1993-94             45.8”                    49 days                          10”               10.3”  (Jan 6/7)
1994-95             33.5”                    39 days                            7”                 7.6”  (Dec 6/7)
1995-96             27.6”                         31 days                             6”                 5.8”  (Mar 19/20)
1996-97             40.0”*                          38 days                              5”                     4.5”  (Jan 9)
1997-98             23.5”                    30 days                            6”                 4.8”  (Jan 22/23)
1998-99             49.5”                    41 days                          24”               11.3”  (Jan 2/3)
1999-00             23.7”                    43 days                            5”                 4.0”  (Feb 18/19)
2000-01             39.0”                    67 days                          12”                 6.1”  (Dec 11/12)
2001-02             33.7”                    30 days                            8”                 7.6”  (Jan 30/31)
2002-03             60.9”                    63 days                            9”                 7.3”  (Feb 22/23)
2003-04             24.1”                    51 days                            5”                 4.7”  (Jan 14)
2004-05             63.8”                    62 days                          12”               12.2”  (Jan 22)
2005-06             36.3”                    40 days                            8”                 6.2”  (12/9 & 12/15)
2006-07             30.3”                    43 days                            8”                 8.5”  (Feb 13/14)
2007-08             71.7”                    63 days                            9”                 9.0”  (Dec 15/16)
2008-09             65.7”                    60 days                          14”                 7.9”  (Dec 19)
2009-10             43.7”                    48 days                          10”                 8.6”  (Feb 9/10)  

thanks

[Stebo]

Lock it in.

nooo snow hole over MI still

[cyclone77]

Lock it in.

Yeah that system is starting to look more and more interesting as time goes by. The GEM has been hinting at this thing for the last few days, and the GFS has been back and forth with it. Looks like a long and drawn out light to moderate snow event, followed by intense arctic air mid-month. With such a strong high coming down out of Canada we'll really have to watch how this thing goes.

[michsnowfreak]

nooo snow hole over MI still

Yes but this snow hole is still 5+ inches of snow.

Granted we are WAY too far out to look at details lol

[cyclone77]

Wow, apparently it's a bit breezy in Dubuque Iowa tonight. Hurricane force gusts as we approach midnight.

DUBUQUE PTCLDY 24 19 81 W14G74 29.92R WCI 12

[Hoosier]

Wow, apparently it's a bit breezy in Dubuque Iowa tonight. Hurricane force gusts as we approach midnight.

DUBUQUE PTCLDY 24 19 81 W14G74 29.92R WCI 12

Dubuque's getting all the action this winter.

[Chicago WX]

Wow, apparently it's a bit breezy in Dubuque Iowa tonight. Hurricane force gusts as we approach midnight.

DUBUQUE PTCLDY 24 19 81 W14G74 29.92R WCI 12

DBQ...the new MSN.

[Stebo]

Wow, apparently it's a bit breezy in Dubuque Iowa tonight. Hurricane force gusts as we approach midnight.

DUBUQUE PTCLDY 24 19 81 W14G74 29.92R WCI 12

My guess, a large bird (hawk or eagle) sitting on ASOS.

[michsnowfreak]

The 00z GEM looks very nice here at hour 168, about 12-18 hours faster than the GFS, although it weakens precip to our east while GFS explodes it. What this tells me, yes the details will change MANY times before then, and some of us will probably get screwed somewhat, but potential IS there for us in the southern Lakes, and I mean beyond a 1-2" type of deal (that, imo, is always there in a cold pattern, even if models are bone dry, unless a H is parked right over you).

[Hoosier]

The 00z GEM looks very nice here at hour 168, about 12-18 hours faster than the GFS, although it weakens precip to our east while GFS explodes it. What this tells me, yes the details will change MANY times before then, and some of us will probably get screwed somewhat, but potential IS there for us in the southern Lakes, and I mean beyond a 1-2" type of deal (that, imo, is always there in a cold pattern, even if models are bone dry, unless a H is parked right over you).

I agree there is potential with that event. My main concern is just sorting out the next 3 or 4 days first.

[Chicago WX]

The 00z GEM looks very nice here at hour 168, about 12-18 hours faster than the GFS, although it weakens precip to our east while GFS explodes it. What this tells me, yes the details will change MANY times before then, and some of us will probably get screwed somewhat, but potential IS there for us in the southern Lakes, and I mean beyond a 1-2" type of deal (that, imo, is always there in a cold pattern, even if models are bone dry, unless a H is parked right over you).

I really like the potential...for a lot of us.

[Chicago Storm]

FWIW...the ECMWF comes in with a weaker GFS/GGEM like solution for the late week clipper.

[Chicago Storm]

FWIW...the ECMWF comes in with a weaker GFS/GGEM like solution for the late week clipper.

It's also coming in with a stronger/further north solution for the main system following the clipper.

Edit: Moves through as two pieces though.

[Thundersnow12]

I agree there is potential with that event. My main concern is just sorting out the next 3 or 4 days first.

Yes def potential, GEM also a nice hit here. In model land, its also a slow moving system.

[Hoosier]

I really like the potential...for a lot of us.

Man, this is about as bullish as I've seen you.

[Chicago WX]

Man, this is about as bullish as I've seen you.

Strange, huh? I think I've been pouring over too many of the CPC analogs, etc lately. Still, something tells me this one will be good. 0z Euro not playing ball though. No matter.

[Thundersnow12]

IF the 0z GFS were to verify places around sioux city would have steady snow for 50hrs or so, after 6z sun-12z tue.

http://climate.cod.edu/loops/gfsUS.precip.html

[Stevo6899]

Too much of a bomb/vortex with the first storm which causes next weeks storm to fall apart as it comes east. Same ol. Have yet to see a cross country storm spread the wealth. Either a block is in the way or a large low is off the coast. Never seen so many monster storms either along the coast or just to the east.

[Stevo6899]

I have read that these ec storms can break down or move the block or it could renforce the block and bring down colder air. Anyone care to help?

[The_Global_Warmer]

The models are pointing towards a nice WAA intrusion here with a decent snowfall.

then possibly more from storm 2.

euro maps on Ewall look like our area would be really nice for a 2-3 day on and off snow event.

so rare here.

[Harry]

Strange, huh? I think I've been pouring over too many of the CPC analogs, etc lately. Still, something tells me this one will be good. 0z Euro not playing ball though. No matter.

Euro does not play ball because it sh*ts the bed with the weekend crap off the eastcoast and thus develops it too far south which in turn allows it to cut off and act as a blocker for the system next week.

[Chicago WX]

The models are pointing towards a nice WAA intrusion here with a decent snowfall.

then possibly more from storm 2.

euro maps on Ewall look like our area would be really nice for a 2-3 day on and off snow event.

so rare here.

QPF is pretty meh...0.25-0.50" total for STL. Not that it's the be all end all right now.

[Harry]

00z euro ensembles say miller b'ish type system..

[snowstormcanuck]

A little DGEX weenie fodder for the next week storm.

[snowstormcanuck]

00z euro ensembles say miller b'ish type system..

Yeah. Not ideal, but decent.

Maybe this has to do with the weakening -NAO, but I like how the models are generally more progressive with the Atlantic system at ~120 hours then they otherwise would have been in December, or last winter. Increase the wavelength between the two troughs and suddenly you don't have to deal with uber suppression. I'm not saying this for sure will be a hit (see 6z GFS) but it has more potential than anything recently.

Or maybe I'm just deluding myself?

[Harry]

Yeah. Not ideal, but decent.

Maybe this has to do with the weakening -NAO, but I like how the models are generally more progressive with the Atlantic system at ~120 hours then they otherwise would have been in December, or last winter. Increase the wavelength between the two troughs and suddenly you don't have to deal with uber suppression. I'm not saying this for sure will be a hit (see 6z GFS) but it has more potential than anything recently.

Or maybe I'm just deluding myself?

Oh it has probably the best potential *we* have seen recently.

A few of these will work too.

I would just not yet get excited till we atleast have the models showing it as a real threat for us inside of day 5. Then take it from there. That's me anyways.

[Organizing Low]

Michsnow was on fire last night

love it

[Stevo6899]

I've never seen so much of a cluster^&*%....hour 78 on the 12z NAM. Would be nice if all 3 pieces stayed together before they hit the coast for once.