michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And I've been meaning to ask you, did you stay all snow down there in Wyandotte? I know you guys were cutting it close because Monroe County did have a period of freezing rain. There was a glaze of ice on the snow when I awoke on the 3rd, but i slept through it. It was cool because the snow had already drifted quite a bit, so the glazing froze the drifty, deep snowpack in place (no more drifting during the day). We had a solid foot of snow, probably more but I recorded a foot because thats what the newspaper said lol (this was before I knew about spotters and stuff...that report, I later figured out, was phoned in before the storm even ended). I never officially stuck a yardstick in the snow, I was too busy playing in the snow like a kid lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 lol Gotta love it. Dumps in the dakotas and iowa, places that dont need to see any snow, and it transfers and dumps on the east coast and midatlantic, more places that dont need to see any snow. Screw zone in between. Of course it will change but man it makes you want to punch the monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The problem is the low solar activity/-NAO/-AO. If it's in some sort of long term cyclical phase, there may be some merit to a stretch of below normal snowfall in the Eastern Lakes. I've heard some numbers thrown around. Some peg it at 10 years, others less, but I don't think the 2000s being snowier than average is sufficient evidence to dispel any concerns about the decade ahead of us. Well we will see. Even with the historic block of last winter, technically Detroit was still 3 inches ABOVE the longterm average. I could live with somewhat below normal snowfall winters if it meant cold and lasting snowcover. But we are putting the cart way before the horse LOL. A below average winter hasnt happened here since 2006-07, and I sure as hell am going to even consider 2010-11 as a below average winter when we sit here on January 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 LOL! you put hes video on here I stated earlier the next 2 weeks that blocking will be there! Therefor.. a less active period unless your in the LES zone. I never said it was going to last the rest of the winter. lol I knew that was coming. That doesnt mean I agree with him. If we can get somewhat a SE ridge and a weakening NAO I think it will go a bit further north and maybe not even transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think I am going to take a backseat and let the models do their thing for a few days. Especially with 2 clippers forthcoming before anything beyond 150hr. There will be changes run to run for a while forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There was a glaze of ice on the snow when I awoke on the 3rd, but i slept through it. It was cool because the snow had already drifted quite a bit, so the glazing froze the drifty, deep snowpack in place (no more drifting during the day). We had a solid foot of snow, probably more but I recorded a foot because thats what the newspaper said lol (this was before I knew about spotters and stuff...that report, I later figured out, was phoned in before the storm even ended). I never officially stuck a yardstick in the snow, I was too busy playing in the snow like a kid lol. A lot of PL though mixed in right? There were 5 or 6 hours up here where Pearson was recording +SN/+PL simultaneously, with visibilities <1/4 SM. It's hard to imagine how heavy the snow would have been had there been no PL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Gotta love it. Dumps in the dakotas and iowa, places that dont need to see any snow, and it transfers and dumps on the east coast and midatlantic, more places that dont need to see any snow. Screw zone in between. Of course it will change but man it makes you want to punch the monitor. The map has just as much qpf here in MI as it does in IA, and more than MN/dakotas. Unless you are referring to a period before that image, havent even looked at the 00z gfs yet. BTW, all but the northern fringe of Iowa has bare ground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 lol I knew that was coming. That doesnt mean I agree with him. If we can get somewhat a SE ridge and a weakening NAO I think it will go a bit further north and maybe not even transfer. No worries here! I want this pattern to change just as much as you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well we will see. Even with the historic block of last winter, technically Detroit was still 3 inches ABOVE the longterm average. I could live with somewhat below normal snowfall winters if it meant cold and lasting snowcover. But we are putting the cart way before the horse LOL. A below average winter hasnt happened here since 2006-07, and I sure as hell am going to even consider 2010-11 as a below average winter when we sit here on January 3rd. The thing is though Josh, it wasn't until the block relaxed a little bit last winter did we explode with activity in February. The vast majority of the winter was a lump of coal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Gotta love it. Dumps in the dakotas and iowa, places that dont need to see any snow, and it transfers and dumps on the east coast and midatlantic, more places that dont need to see any snow. Screw zone in between. Of course it will change but man it makes you want to punch the monitor. Meh, that'd still be advisory criteria with BLSN for you. At times like these, gotta take what you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 A lot of PL though mixed in right? There were 5 or 6 hours up here where Pearson was recording +SN/+PL simultaneously, with visibilities <1/4 SM. It's hard to imagine how heavy the snow would have been had there been no PL. Actually i dont think we had ANY sleet. Just a little freezing rain/rain at the tail end. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDTW/1999/1/2/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDTW/1999/1/3/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There is so much wrong with the above that I dont know where to start lol. I dont know what some would think if we saw a REAL snow drought, ala 1940s style. First of all 7-9" is a low average, id say really 8-12" sums up most of SE MI, which is below normal but not terribly so. It is Jan 3rd for crying out loud, the snow season is not even 1/3 complete. The official numbers to date are 9.3" at Detroit, 10.7" at Saginaw, 12.1" at White Lake and 12.4" at Flint. But more importantly..a TREND for future winters to come? Wow. This just goes to show how spoiled weve become. I know Detroits climate like the back of my hand, and let me tell you trends weve seen in the past decade. ~4 of the past 8 winters had over 60" at Detroit. That had never come close to happening before ~Though we are seeing no huge bombs, the frequency of 6"+ snowstorms is higher now than its ever been. The 2000s officially saw 16 storms drop over 6 inches, eclipsing the high marks of the 1880s, 1920s, and 1970s. (The number is probably over 20 storm of 6"+ in your location). ~Detroits snow records go back 130 years. 3 of the top 9 snowiest winters have occurred within the past 6 years. ~5 calendar months in the previous 3 winters eclipsed 21" of snow. Once again, a frequency not seen before. Snowfall climo in Detroit, as well as the much of the Great Lakes region, has seen such an uptick in recent years that it would take several very low snowfall winters to start reversing that trend back to the longterm normal, much less below normal. Should Detroit not hit 24" this winter, that would land them in the top 20 least snowy winters list. The chances of not getting 15 or more inches of snow in the next 4 months in a La Nina pattern, I dont care what the GFS says for this week...are realistically probably 1%. YES! I agree ive been spoiled. I remember the 90's were very uneventful snowstorm wise except in 99 Maybe the 24" total was a little low Great write up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 People who complain about specific model details this far out need to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Monday, January 3rd: Hi: 37F Lo: 22F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Cloudy. Max Wind Gust: 15MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The thing is though Josh, it wasn't until the block relaxed a little bit last winter did we explode with activity in February. The vast majority of the winter was a lump of coal. Yes no doubt snowfall was below normal in Dec/Jan (but again, not terribly so, I think the winters of 07-08 & 08-09 skewed most peoples ideas of what is "normal", though I do know fwiw Eastpointe was in a snowhole last year). But again the scenario that SSC paints is all speculation, and if it DOES happen, it doesnt mean the block will never relax. Also if it DOES happen, while it increases our chances for below normal snowfall it also increases our chances for above normal snowcover days. I can live with that (though even i would prefer the above average snowfall camp). Several low snowfall winters of the 1940s and 1960s were actually very white winters, I wonder if it was a blocky regime? Harry, anybody? Was there blockiness in those decades or is that too far back to tell? Anyway, anything and everything good, bad, and indifferent about this week, this winter, or this decade is all 100% specualtion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No worries here! I want this pattern to change just as much as you do. I just wonder when a transfer occurs, why does it have to transfer in ohio or pennsylvania to a low near the coast. Why dont we see lows transfer further west say from Indiana or Missouri to a secondary near the apps and track NE along or west/east of the apps. Maybe its a stupid question and transfers only happen because of the moisture off the ocean but I was just curious. Maybe the apps prevent this? Seems like the majority of the time we get a favorable track for snows in chicago detroit milwaukee, etc, the lows weaken and transfer to a coastal. Luckily sometimes the primary doesnt weaken until it dumps decent snows on the great lakes but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well we will see. Even with the historic block of last winter, technically Detroit was still 3 inches ABOVE the longterm average. I could live with somewhat below normal snowfall winters if it meant cold and lasting snowcover. But we are putting the cart way before the horse LOL. A below average winter hasnt happened here since 2006-07, and I sure as hell am going to even consider 2010-11 as a below average winter when we sit here on January 3rd. We cam probably attribute that more so to the pacific. The PNA did trend neutral in February in a winter that otherwise featured a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Actually i dont think we had ANY sleet. Just a little freezing rain/rain at the tail end. http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html Interesting. I had assumed everyone on the east side of th track had some mixing issues, even if it didn't really inhibit impressive snowfall totals. I know parts of OH and NYS saw some insane sleet accumulations, like 4-6" worth. Even as close as Buffalo only had 4.3" on Jan 2-3, assumingly mostly sleet. The screw line was probably real close to me, as evident by the mixing with +PL. Luckily I emerged victorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I just wonder when a transfer occurs, why does it have to transfer in ohio or pennsylvania to a low near the coast. Why dont we see lows transfer further west say from Indiana or Missouri to a secondary near the apps and track NE along or west/east of the apps. Maybe its a stupid question and transfers only happen because of the moisture off the ocean but I was just curious. Maybe the apps prevent this? Seems like the majority of the time we get a favorable track for snows in chicago detroit milwaukee, etc, the lows weaken and transfer to a coastal. Luckily sometimes the primary doesnt weaken until it dumps decent snows on the great lakes but still. Ive always wonder the same thing. Probably why its hard for us to get 15"+ snowstorms because energy seems to transfer a lot to the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yes no doubt snowfall was below normal in Dec/Jan (but again, not terribly so, I think the winters of 07-08 & 08-09 skewed most peoples ideas of what is "normal", though I do know fwiw Eastpointe was in a snowhole last year). But again the scenario that SSC paints is all speculation, and if it DOES happen, it doesnt mean the block will never relax. Also if it DOES happen, while it increases our chances for below normal snowfall it also increases our chances for above normal snowcover days. I can live with that (though even i would prefer the above average snowfall camp). Several low snowfall winters of the 1940s and 1960s were actually very white winters, I wonder if it was a blocky regime? Harry, anybody? Was there blockiness in those decades or is that too far back to tell? Anyway, anything and everything good, bad, and indifferent about this week, this winter, or this decade is all 100% specualtion. I do know the 1960s at least were blockly, with a few relaxations (Notably 1964-1965 and 1967-1968). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 YES! I agree ive been spoiled. I remember the 90's were very uneventful snowstorm wise except in 99 Maybe the 24" total was a little low Great write up A lot of my optimism comes from just really knowing climo. I admit I have NO idea what the future holds, thats why I was so ticked to lose the snowpack on New Years Eve, because a low snowfall winter IS possible. Heck, as Harry pointed out on his board, its almost as if we are due. The pure fact that we have been so spoiled in recent winters and the karma that could follow it is what has me scared more than any model could ever. Knowing climo Ive seen many times when a REAL stinker winter can follow a great winter or string of great winters. While I dont think that will happen this year (especially with the nice stretch of snowcover we already have logged in the books, and especially since its La Nina), that karma thing is lingering overhead ever so slightly. But Ive been fearing it ever since the first in our stretch of snowy winters back in 2002-03, and even the stinkers in our recent very snowy stretch (the stinkers being 2003-04, 2005-06, and 2006-07) all had nice month+ periods of solid snowcover. But I will tell you that I DO know there is a LOT, and I mean a LOT of winter left. Astronomical winter is not even 2 weeks old. The "dead of winter", ie the coldest/whitest part statistically, is still 3-4 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yes no doubt snowfall was below normal in Dec/Jan (but again, not terribly so, I think the winters of 07-08 & 08-09 skewed most peoples ideas of what is "normal", though I do know fwiw Eastpointe was in a snowhole last year). But again the scenario that SSC paints is all speculation, and if it DOES happen, it doesnt mean the block will never relax. Also if it DOES happen, while it increases our chances for below normal snowfall it also increases our chances for above normal snowcover days. I can live with that (though even i would prefer the above average snowfall camp). Several low snowfall winters of the 1940s and 1960s were actually very white winters, I wonder if it was a blocky regime? Harry, anybody? Was there blockiness in those decades or is that too far back to tell? Anyway, anything and everything good, bad, and indifferent about this week, this winter, or this decade is all 100% specualtion. I'll be honest though, I was spoiled not only because the those 2 years here, but the 5 years I was in Mount Pleasant, I believe we had one year under 50inches, and like 2 over 85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 BTW..funny story today at work. A sunny January day with bare ground, yet this idiot crashes his suv into one of the old icy snowbanks and says that our snowbank ruined his car and wants us to pay for it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 BTW..funny story today at work. A sunny January day with bare ground, yet this idiot crashes his suv into one of the old icy snowbanks and says that our snowbank ruined his car and wants us to pay for it lol. And the winner of moron of the day award goes to...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 BTW..funny story today at work. A sunny January day with bare ground, yet this idiot crashes his suv into one of the old icy snowbanks and says that our snowbank ruined his car and wants us to pay for it lol. Maybe he is a weather nut like us and he just navigated through a boring run of the latest GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 A lot of my optimism comes from just really knowing climo. I admit I have NO idea what the future holds, thats why I was so ticked to lose the snowpack on New Years Eve, because a low snowfall winter IS possible. Heck, as Harry pointed out on his board, its almost as if we are due. The pure fact that we have been so spoiled in recent winters and the karma that could follow it is what has me scared more than any model could ever. Knowing climo Ive seen many times when a REAL stinker winter can follow a great winter or string of great winters. While I dont think that will happen this year (especially with the nice stretch of snowcover we already have logged in the books, and especially since its La Nina), that karma thing is lingering overhead ever so slightly. But Ive been fearing it ever since the first in our stretch of snowy winters back in 2002-03, and even the stinkers in our recent very snowy stretch (the stinkers being 2003-04, 2005-06, and 2006-07) all had nice month+ periods of solid snowcover. But I will tell you that I DO know there is a LOT, and I mean a LOT of winter left. Astronomical winter is not even 2 weeks old. The "dead of winter", ie the coldest/whitest part statistically, is still 3-4 weeks away. BTW: Do you have the official stats for Detroit in the 90's total Snowfall each year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 BTW..funny story today at work. A sunny January day with bare ground, yet this idiot crashes his suv into one of the old icy snowbanks and says that our snowbank ruined his car and wants us to pay for it lol. I'm not an expert on MI traffic law but I don't think that's gonna fly if he pursues it through litigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'll be honest though, I was spoiled not only because the those 2 years here, but the 5 years I was in Mount Pleasant, I believe we had one year under 50inches, and like 2 over 85" You have to go back to 1999-00 to see a winter when all of southern MI saw below normal snowfall. South half of lower MI 2000-01: Above normal most everywhere except Detroit-south which was near-normal 2001-02: Above normal most everywhere except metro-Detroit, which was near to slightly below normal 2002-03: Above normal from Detroit southward, normal to below normal elsewhere 2003-04: Above normal north/west of Detroit, below normal from Detroit-south 2004-05: Above normal everywhere 2005-06: Near normal overall, pockets of slightly above normal, pockets of slightly below normal 2006-07: Above normal in the lake belts, below normal elsewhere 2007-08: Above normal everywhere 2008-09: Above normal everywhere 2009-10: Normal in the southern 2-tiers of counties statewide, below normal north of there 2010-11: ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You have to go back to 1999-00 to see a winter when all of southern MI saw below normal snowfall. South half of lower MI 2000-01: Above normal most everywhere except Detroit-south which was near-normal 2001-02: Above normal most everywhere except metro-Detroit, which was near to slightly below normal 2002-03: Above normal from Detroit southward, normal to below normal elsewhere 2003-04: Above normal north/west of Detroit, below normal from Detroit-south 2004-05: Above normal everywhere 2005-06: Near normal overall, pockets of slightly above normal, pockets of slightly below normal 2006-07: Above normal in the lake belts, below normal elsewhere 2007-08: Above normal everywhere 2008-09: Above normal everywhere 2009-10: Normal in the southern 2-tiers of counties statewide, below normal north of there 2010-11: ??? Thats all fine and dandy with averages but when places to your west have double their average and places to your east are on their way to double their averages, it still makes you angry even though you may be average or slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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