Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yeah ive been getting the blank page too..... thanks for checking anyways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The DGEX, while a novel idea by NCEP, is one of the worst models of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The DGEX, while a novel idea by NCEP, is one of the GREATEST MODELS OF ALL TIME. I think you confused worst with greatest so I fixed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think you confused worst with greatest so I fixed it. Haha. DGEX or bust. I honestly had never heard of the DGEX until I joined Americanwx. A lot of EC folks post it on occasion. I have given it a glance every now and then, and I don't know if it has verified once, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Haha. DGEX or bust. I honestly had never heard of the DGEX until I joined Americanwx. A lot of EC folks post it on occasion. I have given it a glance every now and then, and I don't know if it has verified once, lol. yeah it's pretty terrible. I really don't know who came up with the idea that a model that is pretty terrible at 84 hours should be extended out farther than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Haha. DGEX or bust. I honestly had never heard of the DGEX until I joined Americanwx. A lot of EC folks post it on occasion. I have given it a glance every now and then, and I don't know if it has verified once, lol. I believe a couple a days ago, it was advertising 9" of snow in Central TX in the 84-192 time-frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yeah it's pretty terrible. I really don't know who came up with the idea that a model that is pretty terrible at 84 hours should be extended out farther than that. I believe a couple a days ago, it was advertising 9" of snow in Central TX in the 84-192 time-frame. Here is the NCEP information on DGEX. " Welcome to the web page of the NCEP Downscaled GFS by NAM Extension (DGEX) forecast. The DGEX is initialized by interpolating the 78-h operational NAM forecast to a smaller 12-km domain. A 78-h to 192-h forecast of the WRF-NMM is made (same version that is running in the NAM), using the previous 6-h old GFS forecast for lateral boundary conditions. Click here to see the computational domain of the DGEX runs over the CONUS and Alaska." Haha, it just sounds like a trainwreck from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not sure if anyone has seen brett anderson's (Canadian Accuweather Meteorologist) latest video but it just enforces the idea that the block will still be there next week when this storm would come east. Regardless whether the ec storm moves out or not it doesn't look likely that the storm will be able to move NE with the block still in place. Maybe it will weaken but we will find out. Around 5 minutes into the video is when he talks about next week and the block. Brett Anderson's Video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I believe a couple a days ago, it was advertising 9" of snow in Central TX in the 84-192 time-frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know it's the HR 150+ GFS, but it says a big FU to the WI/MI/IND/IL areas. From about hrs 132-162 it has .1-.25 qpf in basically the same spot. ND/SD/NE get 1+ QPF and still snowing at hr 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not sure if anyone has seen brett anderson's (Canadian Accuweather Meteorologist) latest video but it just enforces the idea that the block will still be there next week when this storm would come east. Regardless whether the ec storm moves out or not it doesn't look likely that the storm will be able to move NE with the block still in place. Maybe it will weaken but we will find out. Around 5 minutes into the video is when he talks about next week and the block. Brett Anderson's Video Nxt two weeks is dead weather wise around here except for the extremely small clippers this week . That darn block aint going anywhere. It looks like its trapped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS TOOK MAH SNOW!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yea I dont buy the low just sitting in texas for almost two days with no eastward movement. The ec storm looks to move out in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yea I dont buy the low just sitting in texas for almost two days with no eastward movement. The ec storm looks to move out in time It's not a question of the storm moving east, but whether it'll have the opportunity to cut northward or simply scoot along OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Nxt two weeks is dead weather wise around here except for the extremely small clippers this week . That darn block aint going anywhere. It looks like its trapped! The block is weakening and it will continue to do so so saying that the next two weeks will be quiet just seems ignorant to me. You could be right but I don't buy the idea that the next two weeks will be quiet just because the last 3 weeks have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I wonder if this going to be a trend for future winters to come. On average SEMI is at about 7-9" for the year...below average. It will be a struggle for SEMI to even pass 2 feet of Snow this year unless we get a spring suprise in mid to late March that seems to mask the futility of snow amounts in the winter. This current pattern were heading into is pretty much similar to pattern in December. There is so much wrong with the above that I dont know where to start lol. I dont know what some would think if we saw a REAL snow drought, ala 1940s style. First of all 7-9" is a low average, id say really 8-12" sums up most of SE MI, which is below normal but not terribly so. It is Jan 3rd for crying out loud, the snow season is not even 1/3 complete. The official numbers to date are 9.3" at Detroit, 10.7" at Saginaw, 12.1" at White Lake and 12.4" at Flint. But more importantly..a TREND for future winters to come? Wow. This just goes to show how spoiled weve become. I know Detroits climate like the back of my hand, and let me tell you trends weve seen in the past decade. ~4 of the past 8 winters had over 60" at Detroit. That had never come close to happening before ~Though we are seeing no huge bombs, the frequency of 6"+ snowstorms is higher now than its ever been. The 2000s officially saw 16 storms drop over 6 inches, eclipsing the high marks of the 1880s, 1920s, and 1970s. (The number is probably over 20 storm of 6"+ in your location). ~Detroits snow records go back 130 years. 3 of the top 9 snowiest winters have occurred within the past 6 years. ~5 calendar months in the previous 3 winters eclipsed 21" of snow. Once again, a frequency not seen before. Snowfall climo in Detroit, as well as the much of the Great Lakes region, has seen such an uptick in recent years that it would take several very low snowfall winters to start reversing that trend back to the longterm normal, much less below normal. Should Detroit not hit 24" this winter, that would land them in the top 20 least snowy winters list. The chances of not getting 15 or more inches of snow in the next 4 months in a La Nina pattern, I dont care what the GFS says for this week...are realistically probably 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's not a question of the storm moving east, but whether it'll have the opportunity to cut northward or simply scoot along OTS. Basically in two days the precip moves from the dakotas to iowa. Don't really know why I continue to waste my time looking past 100 hours on any of the models. Like someone stated earlier I am almost glad school started back up so I can take my focus off the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Meh, GFS gives S. WI/N. IL/IN some snow. Probably .25 QPF or so. Total QPF at hr 168: W. IA gets 1.25-1.5 E. IA gets .01-.1 Man that would suck for E. IA people. Like I said though, it's the hr 150+ GFS so it will change like 20 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Exactly I was having this debate with a friend the other day. Would you rather have a 12-24 inch event once a month like the NE-midatlantic folks have and have it only last a week or would you rather have more frequent 3-4/4-8 inch events and have it stay on the ground for a few weeks. While I would love a huge snowstorm, theres no fun in watching it all melt away a week later. Just like last year in the midatlantic, 70 inches fell in like a months period and it was all gone like a week after from a crazy warmup. Nobody knows how next week or beyond is going to setup so for people to say the same pattern is going to occur is just being a negative nancy. The Nao is weakening and even with a -AO, I still think the great lakes will have a good next couple of months .Lets just hope a strong se ridge doesn't develop which would push storms too far west. I think the -AO that has been killing us could end up helping us down the road if a strong SE ridge and a neutral NAO develop. Agree 100%. Except 70 inches did not fall in a months period out there. Ive noticed quite a bit of inflation from some on there lol. They had to historic feb storms no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And that's what made Jan 1999 so special. Jan 2-3 was the crown jewel, but the whole first half of that month was full of action. It wasn't a one and done deal. After the Jan 14-15 storm, there was 25.6" of snowdepth in downtown Toronto, which I believe is a record. In my 14 years of elementary/high school, the only 2 official snowdays I enjoyed were Jan 14/15, 1999 (of course, there were lots of other "unofficial" ones ). What was your actual snowfall total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What was your actual snowfall total? And I've been meaning to ask you, did you stay all snow down there in Wyandotte? I know you guys were cutting it close because Monroe County did have a period of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There is so much wrong with the above that I dont know where to start lol. I dont know what some would think if we saw a REAL snow drought, ala 1940s style. First of all 7-9" is a low average, id say really 8-12" sums up most of SE MI, which is below normal but not terribly so. It is Jan 3rd for crying out loud, the snow season is not even 1/3 complete. The official numbers to date are 9.3" at Detroit, 10.7" at Saginaw, 12.1" at White Lake and 12.4" at Flint. But more importantly..a TREND for future winters to come? Wow. This just goes to show how spoiled weve become. I know Detroits climate like the back of my hand, and let me tell you trends weve seen in the past decade. ~4 of the past 8 winters had over 60" at Detroit. That had never come close to happening before ~Though we are seeing no huge bombs, the frequency of 6"+ snowstorms is higher now than its ever been. The 2000s officially saw 16 storms drop over 6 inches, eclipsing the high marks of the 1880s, 1920s, and 1970s. (The number is probably over 20 storm of 6"+ in your location). ~Detroits snow records go back 130 years. 3 of the top 9 snowiest winters have occurred within the past 6 years. ~5 calendar months in the previous 3 winters eclipsed 21" of snow. Once again, a frequency not seen before. Snowfall climo in Detroit, as well as the much of the Great Lakes region, has seen such an uptick in recent years that it would take several very low snowfall winters to start reversing that trend back to the longterm normal, much less below normal. Should Detroit not hit 24" this winter, that would land them in the top 20 least snowy winters list. The chances of not getting 15 or more inches of snow in the next 4 months in a La Nina pattern, I dont care what the GFS says for this week...are realistically probably 1%. The problem is the low solar activity/-NAO/-AO. If it's in some sort of long term cyclical phase, there may be some merit to a stretch of below normal snowfall in the Eastern Lakes. I've heard some numbers thrown around. Some peg it at 10 years, others less, but I don't think the 2000s being snowier than average is sufficient evidence to dispel any concerns about the decade ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The block is weakening and it will continue to do so so saying that the next two weeks will be quiet just seems ignorant to me. You could be right but I don't buy the idea that the next two weeks will be quiet just because the last 3 weeks have been. Ignorant? So you are saying Brett Anderson is ignorant? Because Im just stating exactly what hes has pointed out! I just dont get why its so hard for people to understand weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Meh, GFS gives S. WI/N. IL/IN some snow. Probably .25 QPF or so. Total QPF at hr 168: W. IA gets 1.25-1.5 E. IA gets .01-.1 Man that would suck for E. IA people. Like I said though, it's the hr 150+ GFS so it will change like 20 times. Stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The problem is the low solar activity/-NAO/-AO. If it's in some sort of long term cyclical phase, there may be some merit to a stretch of below normal snowfall in the Eastern Lakes. I've heard some numbers thrown around. Some peg it at 10 years, others less, but I don't think the 2000s being snowier than average is sufficient evidence to dispell any concerns about the decade ahead of us. Agreed. I don't know of too many active winters with a -NAO/-AO in the eastern lakes (outside the belts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What was your actual snowfall total? For Jan 2-3, 1999? I pegged it at 16.5" but I wasn't using a snowboard at the time so it's a little iffy. Officially Toronto had 15.2" I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ignorant? So you are saying Brett Anderson is ignorant? Because Im just stating exactly what hes has pointed out! I just dont get why its so hard for people to understand weather patterns. Is brett anderson god? I understand the NAO is weakening so that means the block should ease so I do believe the pattern could change. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think I am going to take a backseat and let the models do their thing for a few days. Especially with 2 clippers forthcoming before anything beyond 150hr. There will be changes run to run for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Is brett anderson god? I understand the NAO is weakening so that means the block should ease so I do believe the pattern could change. We will see. LOL! you put hes video on here I stated earlier the next 2 weeks that blocking will be there! Therefor.. a less active period unless your in the LES zone. I never said it was going to last the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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