Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 with the trough backing west over the next several days, I'm wondering if that nastly ole block is gonna become our friend. Without it we'd probably be seeing a pattern of amped up storms heading for the western lakes. Instead we might get a storm to phase further sw and attempt a run at the lakes but get blocked east, bringing a healthy swath of moisture north with it. Strangely, I'm not worried about a cut west of here...at this point. That being said, the potential New England storm and preceding clippers/impulses need to get sorted out first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Strangely, I'm not worried about a cut west of here...at this point. That being said, the potential New England storm and preceding clippers/impulses need to get sorted out first. i agree....especially with the clippers needing to be sorted out. I'm just saying I think Harry is pulling the white flag out of his pocket way too early. 18z gfs illustrates exactly what i'm talking about....and it's 500 map is still a relative 'cluster'. Imagine if a better defined phase develops with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 with the trough backing west over the next several days, I'm wondering if that nastly ole block is gonna become our friend. Without it we'd probably be seeing a pattern of amped up storms heading for the western lakes. Instead we might get a storm to phase further sw and attempt a run at the lakes but get blocked east, bringing a healthy swath of moisture north with it. I am with you on that, that the block is the FRIEND this time. Blocking giveth and blocking taketh away but I am in agreement with the H5 block pushing the storm farther southeast then normal. Part and parcel with the PV forced under the block if we would miss the storm it would likely go south so I am not worried too much on a western cut like Chicago Wx mentioned. Everything has to fall into place but I do like the long wave pattern over the next couple weeks of snow and more snow, be it light, moderate, or even heavy. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i posted CoastalWx analysis on the pattern giving hope earlier today here is another important notice from LEK (george) for the OV at least. Posted Today, 09:10 AM Gave my mother a call up in Parish, and she estimated around 12", and still snowing moderately. Pattern will be awesome for most of us, IF we can get the advertised PV dump (next week) into the N/C US. That's when we can get our Conn. valley/Hudson Valley/Appalachain storm tracks, with the inevitable "one two punch" when combined with LES afterward.....haven't had a sustained pattern like that in a LONG time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i posted CoastalWx analysis on the pattern giving hope earlier today here is another important notice from LEK (george) for the OV at least. Posted Today, 09:10 AM Gave my mother a call up in Parish, and she estimated around 12", and still snowing moderately. Pattern will be awesome for most of us, IF we can get the advertised PV dump (next week) into the N/C US. That's when we can get our Conn. valley/Hudson Valley/Appalachain storm tracks, with the inevitable "one two punch" when combined with LES afterward.....haven't had a sustained pattern like that in a LONG time.... Is that December 15-17, 2007 in your avatar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i agree....especially with the clippers needing to be sorted out. I'm just saying I think Harry is pulling the white flag out of his pocket way too early. 18z gfs illustrates exactly what i'm talking about....and it's 500 map is still a relative 'cluster'. Imagine if a better defined phase develops with that? Let me clarify a bit. The white flag is mainly for up this way. You are in much better shape down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Is that December 15-17, 2007 in your avatar? haha that was fast, i just put it up, nice work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Let me clarify a bit. The white flag is mainly for up this way. You are in much better shape down that way. i'm still saying i think this potential 'event' next week could come far enough north to bring 'issues' here, and relief to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i'm still saying i think this potential 'event' next week could come far enough north to bring 'issues' here, and relief to you. I think a bit of it will depend on what happens later this week/weekend. It could help force the system further south via acting like a block or it could open the doorway for the system to come further northwest. The less and further north of a coastal we can get this weekend the better the odd's of this system later on coming further west. Euro ensembles show a miller b'ish type system so i guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 haha that was fast, i just put it up, nice work! Great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think a bit of it will depend on what happens later this week/weekend. It could help force the system further south via acting like a block or it could open the doorway for the system to come further northwest. The less and further north of a coastal we can get this weekend the better the odd's of this system later on coming further west. Euro ensembles show a miller b'ish type system so i guess we will see. yep, the models can't even sort out the northern pieces in the next 5 days yet. Im just hoping for a wet overrunning event next week. I think if a piece of that pv drops in across the dakotas the phase could be pretty intense and we would be looking at a powerhouse visiting the cmh area which would be for me and for you. Of course the other option is a phase that brings a monster up the apps...but that's a blind woman with parkinsons threading a needle. A primary to OH with a jumper has warm toungue written all over it for here, although that would make the chicago to LAF crowd pretty happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This would be a good time to have an EPIC STL winter. at least go 100 percent above normal snowfall. we can cash in big with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Made it to 35 today with lots of cloud cover. Probably would have been in the low to mid 20s with the snow cover we had. The warmth today was enough to pretty much take care of the scattered patches left in area yards. It's pretty much bare now with the exception of the piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z GEM with an interesting event at 156hrs for my most visited chase region of 09' (ne KS,se NE, sw IA, nw MO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Great storm. Even better for those who actually witnessed it. (ok, that's gotten old ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yep, the models can't even sort out the northern pieces in the next 5 days yet. Im just hoping for a wet overrunning event next week. I think if a piece of that pv drops in across the dakotas the phase could be pretty intense and we would be looking at a powerhouse visiting the cmh area which would be for me and for you. Of course the other option is a phase that brings a monster up the apps...but that's a blind woman with parkinsons threading a needle. A primary to OH with a jumper has warm toungue written all over it for here, although that would make the chicago to LAF crowd pretty happy I'm stealing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12Z EURO: DET: 0.28 TOL: 0.24 GRR: 0.17 CMH: 0.38 DAY: 0.33 IND: 0.16 YYZ: 0.09 ORD: 0.29 MSP: 0.18 MKE: 0.21 LAF: 0.24 kab2791, which storm is this for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Very light snow in Madison now as we enter the region of upper-level divergence. Might become a sustained light snow for awhile later, will be nice to see just before going to Florida Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 kab2791, which storm is this for? The Clipper Craptastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The Clipper Craptastic Hope the NAM verifies then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hope the NAM verifies then. Which ever model clears the clipper out the fastest I want to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Interesting, although with that confluence off the NE coast, this would be a bowling ball, not a cutter. I'd kind of like something in between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Interesting, although with that confluence off the NE coast, this would be a bowling ball, not a cutter. I'd kind of like something in between the two. :gun_bandana: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Would give us a Heavy snow warning possibly with 6-8 inches in 6 hours. Lock it in. throw away the key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Would give us a Heavy snow warning possibly with 6-8 inches in 6 hours. Lock it in. throw away the key Why did they stop with heavy snow warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Would give us a Heavy snow warning possibly with 6-8 inches in 6 hours. Lock it in. throw away the key Looks like a good 6" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Steadier light snow now, should start making things look wintry soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm averaging 97 posts per one inch of snow. Hope the profs load on the assignments this semester because I'm wasting my time here and I won't stop on my own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm averaging 97 posts per one inch of snow. Hope the profs load on the assignments this semester because I'm wasting my time here and I won't stop on my own. do you know where to find Ukie accumulated qpf maps? the FSU folder hasnt been working for me.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 do you know where to find Ukie accumulated qpf maps? the FSU folder hasnt been working for me.....? Getting a blank page? If you are, same here. Don't know where else you can access UKMET accum maps through 144. Ask Nick (OSUMetStud), he's privy to some of the UKIE goodies. Here's accum on UKIE through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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