GL/MW/OV Jan 2011 Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

Here is the snowpack and more important water equivalent we have going into this potentially warm storm

[Stebo]

Here is the snowpack and more important water equivalent we have going into this potentially warm storm

Josh all I know is don't underestimate the power of WAA, I have seen it do amazing things.

[snowstormcanuck]

I'll pass on a miss to the south after a miss to the west.

You know it's going to happen though.

Once I'm done school in April I'm seeking employment in a city or town with a snowier climate. 07-08/08-09 were nice but they and the other "snowy" winters don't come close to evening out the crap I've had to endure the last 15 years. I'm getting sick of it.

[michsnowfreak]

You know it's going to happen though.

Once I'm done school in April I'm seeking employment in a city or town with a snowier climate. 07-08/08-09 were nice but they and the other "snowy" winters don't come close to evening out the crap I've had to endure the last 15 years.

I know nothing thats going to happen. The models suck period. Its nice to know they do show a good snowstorm around Jan 4th, tells me that once again, everyones in the ballgame, and we merely have to hope that through all of the ridiculous model swings that will undoubtedly cause the usual emotional roller coaster on this board, in the end the storm is something of a ORD/MKE/DTW/TOL/CLE/YYZ special.

If you are serious about relocating, some advice. Toronto (and Detroit) are already pretty snowy climates in the grand scheme of things, so if you would actually uproot your life to a different climate, Id DEFINITELY advise that of a lake snowbelt lol. Look at whos getting clocked with snow this season: southern MN, a region that had been suffering more than any other snowfall-wise in the midwest/Lakes this past decade. The area that would get the reward for best luck so far this season would be Lafayette, IN (a town who used to get the label of screwzone). Then of course, we watch those occasional noreasters dump snow in ridiculous amounts on places who see weeks of no snow at regular intervals in most winters, not seeing snow nearly as often as we do. Actually uprooting and relocating would require a lot of research on snow, climate, etc.

[Stebo]

You know it's going to happen though.

Once I'm done school in April I'm seeking employment in a city or town with a snowier climate. 07-08/08-09 were nice but they and the other "snowy" winters don't come close to evening out the crap I've had to endure the last 15 years. I'm getting sick of it.

It's Christmas SSC, happy thoughts only please

If you want snowy though, Marquette works.

[Chicago WX]

I know nothing thats going to happen. The models suck period. Its nice to know they do show a good snowstorm around Jan 4th, tells me that once again, everyones in the ballgame, and we merely have to hope that through all of the ridiculous model swings that will undoubtedly cause the usual emotional roller coaster on this board, in the end the storm is something of a ORD/MKE/DTW/TOL/CLE/YYZ special.

If you are serious about relocating, some advice. Toronto (and Detroit) are already pretty snowy climates in the grand scheme of things, so if you would actually uproot your life to a different climate, Id DEFINITELY advise that of a lake snowbelt lol. Look at whos getting clocked with snow this season: southern MN, a region that had been suffering more than any other snowfall-wise in the midwest/Lakes this past decade. The area that would get the reward for best luck so far this season would be Lafayette, IN (a town who used to get the label of screwzone). Then of course, we watch those occasional noreasters dump snow in ridiculous amounts on places who see weeks of no snow at regular intervals in most winters, not seeing snow nearly as often as we do. Actually uprooting and relocating would require a lot of research on snow, climate, etc.

Why all the LAF hate? I mean yeah we've done well, but what's the difference between us and IND or CVG or PIA, or any other place experiencing a top 10 snowy this December. Aren't they all pretty lucky? I mean we do get some snow here usually every winter. We're not D.C. or RIC. We've just be fortunate so far. You all will get good snows eventually.

[snowstormcanuck]

I know nothing thats going to happen. The models suck period. Its nice to know they do show a good snowstorm around Jan 4th, tells me that once again, everyones in the ballgame, and we merely have to hope that through all of the ridiculous model swings that will undoubtedly cause the usual emotional roller coaster on this board, in the end the storm is something of a ORD/MKE/DTW/TOL/CLE/YYZ special.

If you are serious about relocating, some advice. Toronto (and Detroit) are already pretty snowy climates in the grand scheme of things, so if you would actually uproot your life to a different climate, Id DEFINITELY advise that of a lake snowbelt lol. Look at whos getting clocked with snow this season: southern MN, a region that had been suffering more than any other snowfall-wise in the midwest/Lakes this past decade. The area that would get the reward for best luck so far this season would be Lafayette, IN (a town who used to get the label of screwzone). Then of course, we watch those occasional noreasters dump snow in ridiculous amounts on places who see weeks of no snow at regular intervals in most winters, not seeing snow nearly as often as we do. Actually uprooting and relocating would require a lot of research on snow, climate, etc.

Sorry Josh. I'm done with the optimism. I've been trying that since Feb 09 and it hasn't got me dick. When I actually see a snowfall over 4" again, then maybe I'll be optimistic.

Downtown Toronto numbers since 1993-94. 1971-2000 avg = 52.4"

1993-94.....60.0" (+7.6")

1994-95.....29.7" (-22.8")

1995-96.....56.2" (+3.8")

1996-97.....68.7" (+16.3")

1997-98.....45.5" (-6.9")

1998-99.....63.9" (+11.5")

1999-00.....32.6" (-19.8")

2000-01.....65.2" (+12.8")

2001-02.....28.1" (-24.3")

2002-03.....64.0" (+11.6")

2003-04.....43.4" (-9.1")

2004-05.....54.9" (+2.5")

2005-06.....27.6" (-24.9")

2006-07.....26.7" (-25.7")

2007-08.....82.6" (+30.2")

2008-09.....51.2" (-1.2")

2009-10.....18.2" (-34.2")

Avg during the period = 48.2". Now that's only a 4.2" decline from the 30 year average during the period, which seems insignificant enough, but if you look at the absolute loss of snowfall (by summing the departures) it comes out to -72.5". I've been shortchanged 72.5" since 1993-94! Ridiculous! And the number's growing with this year's lackluster start.

And I wouldn't really be uprooting my life because I'm still living with my parents. It's more like where I want to start my life. And yeah, a bigger sized town/smaller city in a belt is what I'm currently looking at. Lol, although if we do have a rocking second half, I'll probably forget all about this.

[michsnowfreak]

Why all the LAF hate? I mean yeah we've done well, but what's the difference between us and IND or CVG or PIA, or any other place experiencing a top 10 snowy this December. Aren't they all pretty lucky? I mean we do get some snow here usually every winter. We're not D.C. or RIC. We've just be fortunate so far. You all will get good snows eventually.

Im not hating on LAF at all. On the contrary, I think you totally misinterpreted what I meant. I just picked them because with a good group of LAF posters Im a lot more familiar with LAF than, say, PIA. And LAF has had a lot more than IND. To me, 22" in about 3 weeks when seasonal average is 26" is pretty special. Plus its not like it was one major storm either, it was like a parade of 4-inch snows. Its not making headlines like the deep snow in Minneapolis is, nor like the noreaster is that will probably pound the east coast (most of which has basically seen no snow at all yet this winter). But to me, that is the perfect kind of weather, and thats what I meant by "luck". Lucky is when, even though you are not getting slammed with a big storm, you always find youre way into each snowfall that traverses the region with a good shovelable snow. (ie, youTrust me, the post wasnt intended to be negative at all. And no of course LAF isnt RIC or DC. Those climates dont have real winter, they just score occasional bombs.

[michsnowfreak]

Lol, although if we do have a rocking second half, I'll probably forget all about this.

[Chicago WX]

Im not hating on LAF at all. On the contrary, I think you totally misinterpreted what I meant. I just picked them because with a good group of LAF posters Im a lot more familiar with LAF than, say, PIA. And LAF has had a lot more than IND. To me, 22" in about 3 weeks when seasonal average is 26" is pretty special. Plus its not like it was one major storm either, it was like a parade of 4-inch snows. Its not making headlines like the deep snow in Minneapolis is, nor like the noreaster is that will probably pound the east coast (most of which has basically seen no snow at all yet this winter). But to me, that is the perfect kind of weather, and thats what I meant by "luck". Lucky is when, even though you are not getting slammed with a big storm, you always find youre way into each snowfall that traverses the region with a good shovelable snow. (ie, youTrust me, the post wasnt intended to be negative at all. And no of course LAF isnt RIC or DC. Those climates dont have real winter, they just score occasional bombs.

Fair enough, I misinterpreted. And you're right, it has a string of "smaller" snows which has led us down this path...which is nice. Of course I'd love the big storm to happen, region-wide. Hopefully we can all get in on one of those this winter.

[michsnowfreak]

Fair enough, I misinterpreted. And you're right, it has a string of "smaller" snows which has led us down this path...which is nice. Of course I'd love the big storm to happen, region-wide. Hopefully we can all get in on one of those this winter.

Yeah I too would like a big storm region-wide (and with the storms that have already happened in the country this season, plus the fact that its La Nina, I think this will happen at least once, maybe more). But for ME (and Im probably in the minority), the perfect setup is what has been going on in LAF over simply getting a big storm. Ironically we have actually had a fiercer storm than you guys with the Dec 12th event (6.3" does not tell the tale of traffic gridlock caused by the flash freeze, blizzard conditions, and 20-degree temp drop..even I had white knuckles). However, next in line are two 1-inch snows then a smattering of dustings, it just seems like more because 2 weeks after our 6" snow with very little additional snow, we are still at 5" depth, a rarity in a place where you usually see powderier snow. On the flip side, you have had four 4-5" snows, and a few smaller ones as well. Those constant refreshers are my favorite. Again, trust me I wasnt looking for a pity party, especially after having an enjoyable (and white) Christmas. I was really just giving LAF props more than anything.

[daddylonglegs]

I'd like a lull. Temps in the mid 20's...sunshine... no snow until late Feb or early March.

Storm track needs to shift about 500 miles south and 500 miles east.

January is generally not a very snowy month here, so we'll see.

[IWXwx]

I'd like a lull. Temps in the mid 20's...sunshine... no snow until late Feb or early March.

Storm track needs to shift about 500 miles south and 500 miles east.

January is generally not a very snowy month here, so we'll see.

What's this, reverse psychology?

[michsnowfreak]

I'd like a lull. Temps in the mid 20's...sunshine... no snow until late Feb or early March.

Storm track needs to shift about 500 miles south and 500 miles east.

January is generally not a very snowy month here, so we'll see.

No snow for 2 months, lol you call that a LULL?

[daddylonglegs]

Everything in moderation...

[Hoosier]

IND already has fog in the forecast for Thursday/Friday. Don't know if I've ever seen it mentioned that far out.

[snowstormcanuck]

If a snowstorm develops between Jan 4 and Jan 9, and ends up tracking NW or SE of me, Hoosier can go ahead and ban me.

[Chicago WX]

If a snowstorm develops between Jan 4 and Jan 9, and ends up tracking NW or SE of me, Hoosier can go ahead and ban me.

Usually I'd think you're kidding around. But I'm not getting that vibe this time.

[Madmaxweather]

Where do we go from here? Does the warmup that is coming at the end of the week signal a pattern change or will it be brief in nature? It does look like cold will return Monday but for how long behind that? Many were on the boat of a warm January but some people are questioning that now? Thoughts????

[michsnowfreak]

Where do we go from here? Does the warmup that is coming at the end of the week signal a pattern change or will it be brief in nature? It does look like cold will return Monday but for how long behind that? Many were on the boat of a warm January but some people are questioning that now? Thoughts????

Seems like the warmth will be very short-lived. Im just hoping we get into an active pattern of snowstorms. One good thing, we have climo on our side at least. Jan, especially late January into early Feb, is the dead of winter.

[TimChgo9]

I hope the warmth is short lived, and it looks like it's not going to be as warm, at least up here, for the weekend. However, heavy rain is going to kill the snow anyhow, so it really doesn't matter.

I hope that the patter stays active, but the storms get shunted a bit further south, so we can see some more snow. If the SE ridging stays put, it will be a wet month. I would rather have a clipper drop 2" and keep it cold, then have a storm start as rain, and switch to snow., even if it were to drop 4+", it would be a wet sloppy snow...

[Thundersnow12]

Caplan and I already talking about our over/under bet for high temp on friday lol

[wishforsnow]

I hope finally we can get some good lake effect snow for the Keweenaw. The winds haven't been right for us. The best snows have been hitting the east UP and the far west.

[daddylonglegs]

Snowpack is going to take a hit everywhere

[Organizing Low]

in ottawa

sunny skies and winds gusting to 30-35mph with miserable windchills from the coastal low

obs at airport drifting snow

these are the worst kind of misses in the parade of misses under this horrific block.

im ready for warmth!

bring it on

[toronto blizzard]

in ottawa

sunny skies and winds gusting to 30-35mph with miserable windchills from the coastal low

obs at airport drifting snow

these are the worst kind of misses in the parade of misses under this horrific block.

im ready for warmth!

bring it on

me too. if we cant get any snowstorms might as well be warm

[Madmaxweather]

After the New Years storm the GFS keeps things very calm. I belive that is wrong and there will be another noise maker between 5th-10th. It will likely come out of the south and what it does is up for debate right now. Were at breaking point right now to see where winter goes? Joe Bistardi is will on the warm boat for January but others like DT, Larry Cosgrove are thinking colder. If I am betting man I don't think are like -4, -3 or even -2 for January but closer to possibly -1 or right near normal. I orginally thought +3.5 for Cincinnati but I right now I would take that down to +0.5. We'll see what happens!

[daddylonglegs]

Max-

I'm going above normal for January here...even with 23 inches of snow we have the ground.

Cold comes back in Feb.

[kab2791]

12Z Euro Brings a developing SLP from northern TX, through AR, through southern IN. Too bad there isn't much cold air, but this could easily change, but it seems this storm will draw some more cold air, as you can see by the 850s below zero west of the low. At the end of h240, 2m temps of 30-35 from MO/IL, east into lower MI.

The precip shield/deformation is showing up decently, so watch trends and see if this indeed holds to be the next viable threat to the region.

[Jim Martin]

Maybe that possible storm on the Euro will bring a plentiful snowfall to northern Ohio. We are overdue for one, actually. I say that because of the many near misses here in this part of Ohio so far this meterological winter season.