kab2791 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12Z EURO: DET: 0.28 TOL: 0.24 GRR: 0.17 CMH: 0.38 DAY: 0.33 IND: 0.16 YYZ: 0.09 ORD: 0.29 MSP: 0.18 MKE: 0.21 LAF: 0.24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Exactly I was having this debate with a friend the other day. Would you rather have a 12-24 inch event once a month like the NE-midatlantic folks have and have it only last a week or would you rather have more frequent 3-4/4-8 inch events and have it stay on the ground for a few weeks. While I would love a huge snowstorm, theres no fun in watching it all melt away a week later. Just like last year in the midatlantic, 70 inches fell in like a months period and it was all gone like a week after from a crazy warmup. Nobody knows how next week or beyond is going to setup so for people to say the same pattern is going to occur is just being a negative nancy. The Nao is weakening and even with a -AO, I still think the great lakes will have a good next couple of months .Lets just hope a strong se ridge doesn't develop which would push storms too far west. I think the -AO that has been killing us could end up helping us down the road if a strong SE ridge and a neutral NAO develop. It's all a matter of perspective and whether one is a suburbanite or city dweller. Snow in cities looks terrible within a day or two of falling regardless of temps. In cities, building a snow pack is a moot point, so rooting for massive blizzards makes sense over smaller events, which are much more noticeable in rural and suburban locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro has a 1060 mb high coming into Montana at 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro has a 1060 mb high coming into Montana at 192 hours. In the meantime, the 12z GFS lost the vodka invasion for days 11-15. Interesting times ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In the meantime, the 12z GFS lost the vodka invasion for days 11-15. Interesting times ahead... it did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 it did? It's so far away that the details aren't that important...but at hour 300, the 0z and 6z gfs had 486 thicknesses in MN and WI...and on the 12z, it was around 504. The cold shifted west a bit on the 12z. Obviously still cold in the midwest, but not barbaric. EDIT: the GFS still has a 1060 mb high...it just comes down much more quickly than in previous model runs. My bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Per wxmx, in the AO thread on the main forum: Ridiculous block in the 12z Euro...1069mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Per wxmx, in the AO thread on the main forum: Ridiculous block in the 12z Euro...1069mb! i believe last year we were in the 1070s improvement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LAF torching today...up to 40º at 3PM. Oh snowcover, how do we miss thee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I see why Harry is concerned but I probably wouldn't throw in the towel quite yet. Although the longer this goes on, the harder it will be to achieve an above average winter. Thus my point. Have a few who have said i made it about the models/model hugging. No no. Has more to do with climo which says it is very hard to come back from such a terrible start. I don't think there is a winter that has managed to come back so late in all of record keeping going back to the late 1890s here. Then there is the cold hard fact that no matter what we just cant seem to get rid of this crappy blocking. That could still change but other then 1 or two people perhaps i have not seen anyone else suggest that it goes by the wayside. And yeah i know some on this board will refuse to say it anyways till the last possible second and hump the blocking/-nao but still. If come the weekend/early next week there is no eastcoast storm/block etc then all will be better. I mentioned back in late November that climo is not good with basically a snowless November and it gets alot worse when December comes in below average on top of it and well it has. Again we are in uncharted waters with this blocking crap and thus the fear especially when i saw the 00z euro etc. Anything beyond day 5-7 ( as we are seeing now ) is just fantasy and meaningless. Till i see it actually happen i wont believe it. That doesn't mean there wont be anymore snows or even a bomb. Even i am not that foolish. Just means a subpar winter/below normal seasonal snowfall looking like a solid bet here in these parts. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thus my point. Have a few who have said i made it about the models/model hugging. No no. Has more to do with climo which says it is very hard to come back from such a terrible start. I don't think there is a winter that has managed to come back so late in all of record keeping going back to the late 1890s here. Then there is the cold hard fact that no matter what we just cant seem to get rid of this crappy blocking. That could still change but other then 1 or two people perhaps i have not seen anyone else suggest that it goes by the wayside. And yeah i know some on this board will refuse to say it anyways till the last possible second and hump the blocking/-nao but still. If come the weekend/early next week there is no eastcoast storm/block etc then all will be better. I mentioned back in late November that climo is not good with basically a snowless November and it gets alot worse when December comes in below average on top of it and well it has. Again we are in uncharted waters with this blocking crap and thus the fear especially when i saw the 00z euro etc. Anything beyond day 5-7 ( as we are seeing now ) is just fantasy and meaningless. Till i see it actually happen i wont believe it. That doesn't mean there wont be anymore snows or even a bomb. Even i am not that foolish. Just means a subpar winter/below normal seasonal snowfall looking like a solid bet here in these parts. That's all. The snowfall departures to date for the GRR CWA are pretty bad. You're right, in that making a historical comeback to an above average season would be just that...pretty historic. It's some tough luck up there with the blocking on steroids...not that I need to say it. Hopefully, at least, you guys can pull a big dog before this season ends...to help ease the pain a little. Here's to hoping. BTW, today's CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day analogs both still have Jan 1978 on there. Dreaming a little dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I just looked up the January 1999 blizzard again, apparently my backyard picked up 12" total. It probably would have been more if it weren't for the warm tongue (thus transitioning to a wet/low ratio snow), but it did produce some widespread thundersnow and a small period of freezing rain downriver. Does anyone have a surface map for it? I already saw the radar images and it's sitll hard to beleive I and others on the eastside of it remained all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I just looked up the January 1999 blizzard again, apparently my backyard picked up 12" total. It probably would have been more if it weren't for the warm tongue (thus transitioning to a wet/low ratio snow), but it did produce some widespread thundersnow and a small period of freezing rain downriver. Does anyone have a surface map for it? I already saw the radar images and it's sitll hard to beleive I and others on the eastside of it remained all snow. upper air/surface archive here. (goes back to 96) http://weather.unisy...hive/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The snowfall departures to date for the GRR CWA are pretty bad. You're right, in that making a historical comeback to an above average season would be just that...pretty historic. It's some tough luck up there with the blocking on steroids...not that I need to say it. Hopefully, at least, you guys can pull a big dog before this season ends...to help ease the pain a little. Here's to hoping. BTW, today's CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day analogs both still have Jan 1978 on there. Dreaming a little dream... Harry needs a January '67. I'd settle for an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I just looked up the January 1999 blizzard again, apparently my backyard picked up 12" total. It probably would have been more if it weren't for the warm tongue (thus transitioning to a wet/low ratio snow), but it did produce some widespread thundersnow and a small period of freezing rain downriver. Does anyone have a surface map for it? I already saw the radar images and it's sitll hard to beleive I and others on the eastside of it remained all snow. PSU e-Wall has a reanalysis page. Here's the 1999 one: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1999.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I used to have the ETA model run right before the blizzard of '99. Let me see if I can dig that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Harry needs a January '67. I'd settle for an ice storm. I'd drive north to see a Jan '67 repeat. You can have the crippling ice storm for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 upper air/surface archive here. (goes back to 96) http://weather.unisy...hive/index.html That only goes back to 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'd drive north to see a Jan '67 repeat. You can have the crippling ice storm for here. I'd probably end up chasing the snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That only goes back to 2004. Upper air: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/eta_init/9901/ Surface: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sfc_map/9901/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 PSU e-Wall has a reanalysis page. Here's the 1999 one: http://www.meteo.psu.../NARR/1999.html I keep getting the error page when I click the dates. Thanks anyways guys, I'll just look for one later tonight when I have more time. Surely there's one buried in hte internet somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I keep getting the error page when I click the dates. Thanks anyways guys, I'll just look for one later tonight when I have more time. Surely there's one buried in hte internet somewhere. Yeah I do too. Thought it was just my computer. Regardless, I have a back way into that page. Click the following link: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2009/us1227.php...click NARR 2009 in the top right hand corner...then click 1999 on the left hand side. It works for me for some idiotic reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I keep getting the error page when I click the dates. Thanks anyways guys, I'll just look for one later tonight when I have more time. Surely there's one buried in hte internet somewhere. I don't know if you already have this link but it's something: http://greatlakes.salsite.com/ToledoSnowstorms.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I keep getting the error page when I click the dates. Thanks anyways guys, I'll just look for one later tonight when I have more time. Surely there's one buried in hte internet somewhere. what was the date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah I do too. Thought it was just my computer. Regardless, I have a back way into that page. Click the following link: http://www.meteo.psu...2009/us1227.php...click NARR 2009 in the top right hand corner...then click 1999 on the left hand side. It works for me for some idiotic reason. Ah yes, now it works, thank you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'd probably end up chasing the snow too. Best thing is we wouldn't have to go far. Big big dog only 90 miles north/northwest of LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z Euro ensemble mean at 168 and 192. Inverted trough at 168 and two slp's at 192. I'd imagine there are couple of members that run a track left of the Apps and then redevelop out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z Euro ensemble mean at 168 and 192. Inverted trough at 168 and two slp's at 192. I'd imagine there are couple of members that run a track left of the Apps and then redevelop out east. i think this is the first real threat for a synoptic hammering for the general OV, lower lakes, and MW that we've seen in some time. I know some mets are calling this a TN valley/eastcoast threat, but I think this is the first true monster storm candidate that will have a good ole fashioned nw trend. This is a different animal and a different pattern. I know Harry is all bumm'n about more suppression and misses east but the mean trough is starting to model further west and the energy coming out will most likely phase further west with this one . Could be the first widespread icestorm across portions of the OV as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i think this is the first real threat for a synoptic hammering for the general OV, lower lakes, and MW that we've seen in some time. I know some mets are calling this a TN valley/eastcoast threat, but I think this is the first true monster storm candidate that will have a good ole fashioned nw trend. This is a different animal and a different pattern. I know Harry is all bumm'n about more suppression and misses east but the mean trough is starting to model further west and the energy coming out will most likely phase further west with this one . Could be the first widespread icestorm across portions of the OV as well. I certainly think there's some potential in the 7-9 day range. Whether it materializes is anyone's guess at this stage. No bus needed, but I'm on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I certainly think there's some potential in the 7-9 day range. Whether it materializes is anyone's guess at this stage. No bus needed, but I'm on board. with the trough backing west over the next several days, I'm wondering if that nastly ole block is gonna become our friend. Without it we'd probably be seeing a pattern of amped up storms heading for the western lakes. Instead we might get a storm to phase further sw and attempt a run at the lakes but get blocked east, bringing a healthy swath of moisture north with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.