ayuud Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 -14F in Intl Falls -1F in Duluth and 23F here... Some cold air sitting to the north. the 0z,6z runs were much colder lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 -EPO dump, NAO trending toward neutral (less suppressive) and then falling thereafter, energy in the pipeline...fairly widespread 6"+ storm (medium/high impact) in the January 10-15 time range for the MW/Lakes (MO to ON). If I'm wrong, you guys can bump troll this post (me) every day until 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 -EPO dump, NAO trending toward neutral (less suppressive) and then falling thereafter, energy in the pipeline...fairly widespread 6"+ storm (medium/high impact) in the January 10-15 time range for the MW/Lakes (MO to ON). If I'm wrong, you guys can bump troll this post (me) every day until 2012. Ranking the most optimistic MW/GL members 1. Michsnowfreak 2. Chicago_Wx I wouldn't crack the top 20, but I at least I'm better than Alek and Bowme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ranking the most optimistic MW/GL members 1. Michsnowfreak 2. Chicago_Wx I wouldn't crack the top 20, but I at least I'm better than Alek and Bowme. Ha, I usually rank myself on the pessimistic/conservative side...but what do I know. But really, I think there are variables on the field in that timeframe. I figured I would go "all in" with this call. Confidence level of 5 on a 10 point scale. I know must will think it's a weenie outlook (wishcast), but it is what it is. We'll see soon enough I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm pretty optimistic about the prospects some action this month. I am not ready to hoist any "winter cancel" flag yet. I have a gut feeling something is going to be happening this month, and some of us are going to be very happy when all is said and done. Not making any predictions, just have a good feeling about the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Time to cancel winter as far as anything meaningful goes with snowstorm potential/LES here. Sorry but there is no coming back from this crap and nothing seems to wanna break this trend. Thus the surrender flag has risen. So add me to the SSC and blowme camp. All knows me and i am not one to usually say such a thing but seriously there is just no hope. NONE! If there was to be a change it would have happened with the last system but ala back to where we were. Congrats to those again on the eastcoast and in the n/nnw flow LES belts. It is just not meant to be for those of us up this way in the dead zone. Payback time for the past few winters i guess. Oh well. Seriously too. This is beyond my scope now with this extremely unusual pattern. Yeah i know what caused it but how it goes from here on out is another thing as it is doing what has basically never happened before with the blocking/-ao/-nao, nina etc. Thus out of my range. Climo/Nina etc says this pattern should not be here this month considering what happened last month/nina etc but ala it is here. Either way it tells me it is not going anywhere and till i see it gone with my own eyes and thus actually happens then i'll believe it is gone but not till then. I will say it is truly fascinating/amazing to see considering it is something that has basically never happened before atleast since record keeping began for this stuff. Unfortunately it is coming at our expense in this area/region. Maybe it will turn around and maybe tonights runs were bs. I would feel alot better if they are but all knows how that goes.. lol Again i'll believe it when i see it with my own eyes and not 5+ days away on some model. And yeah the euro ensembles have followed along with the OP run. Not as extreme but they usually are not anyways.. Hi Harry, I don't even know about us here in the snowbelts...we were "supposed to" get a couple inches of lake effect Saturday night and then an inch or so. Can you guess what we have on the ground as I look out the window? ZILCH...the story of this winter. It just does not want to snow this winter. When I woke up and looked out my window this morning, I just laughed in disgust...I think I'm actually coming around to accepting the "pathetic-ness" of it all. And then of course reading my friends' facebook statuses saying "Oh..how lovely...no snow. I love this weather. blah blah blah". Ok, got my rant done. They are calling for snow every day this week but I'm becoming a huge skeptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z GGEM looks interesting in the 6-8 day range. Never mind the particulars of this run, but there's potential out there. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That Jan 9-12 system looks really interesting for much of the Plains, Mid MS Valley, and Ohio Valley. Just another system that will get "blocked" to my south. Two straight really boring winters here. I still think we (Great Lakes region) might cash in on a few decent snow events in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That Jan 9-12 system looks really interesting for much of the Plains, Mid MS Valley, and Ohio Valley. Just another system that will get "blocked" to my south. Two straight really boring winters here. I still think we (Great Lakes region) might cash in on a few decent snow events in March. Is this just your feeling about March, or is there some reasoning behind this statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 -EPO dump, NAO trending toward neutral (less suppressive) and then falling thereafter, energy in the pipeline...fairly widespread 6"+ storm (medium/high impact) in the January 10-15 time range for the MW/Lakes (MO to ON). If I'm wrong, you guys can bump troll this post (me) every day until 2012. I'm "all in" ...because I'm going back to Oklahoma on the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 -EPO dump, NAO trending toward neutral (less suppressive) and then falling thereafter, energy in the pipeline...fairly widespread 6"+ storm (medium/high impact) in the January 10-15 time range for the MW/Lakes (MO to ON). If I'm wrong, you guys can bump troll this post (me) every day until 2012. I am pretty down on winter and hope for some reversal in the current pattern/trend. With that said, I (foolishly) am in a support role for an outdoor activity with the Purdue Adventure Club on the 14th thru the 17th down in southern Indiana at Yellowwood State Forest. It is a 48 hour non stop orientating race between check points. I really wouldn't mind a warm and uneventful WX weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I see why Harry is concerned but I probably wouldn't throw in the towel quite yet. Although the longer this goes on, the harder it will be to achieve an above average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Is this just your feeling about March, or is there some reasoning behind this statement? That is mainly based on our La Nina climatology in the IWX CWA, as March tends to be snowier than average during this ENSO cycle. And it is just a gut feeling that we will start to see a more "typical" La Nina pattern by this time as the negative AO/NAO regime begins to break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I am pretty down on winter and hope for some reversal in the current pattern/trend. With that said, I (foolishly) am in a support role for an outdoor activity with the Purdue Adventure Club on the 14th thru the 17th down in southern Indiana at Yellowwood State Forest. It is a 48 hour non stop orientating race between check points. I really wouldn't mind a warm and uneventful WX weekend. Doubtful on the warm part, but who knows? Plus my storm idea will likely happen before your trip south. Dry should be good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 '99 was magical...certainly the best storm of my life with 2007 a close runner up. It was pegged fairly well by the media outlets in terms of "big storm coming" but the amounts were underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm "all in" ...because I'm going back to Oklahoma on the 16th. We don't want you back, you bring bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That is mainly based on our La Nina climatology in the IWX CWA, as March tends to be snowier than average during this ENSO cycle. And it is just a gut feeling that we will start to see a more "typical" La Nina pattern by this time as the negative AO/NAO regime begins to break down. Thanks, I assumed climatology played a role in it, but I didn't know if there was something else you were looking at when you made that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That is mainly based on our La Nina climatology in the IWX CWA, as March tends to be snowier than average during this ENSO cycle. And it is just a gut feeling that we will start to see a more "typical" La Nina pattern by this time as the negative AO/NAO regime begins to break down. What is typical La Nina anymore, or ENSO in the past two winters on a whole? But I do get what you're saying. Matter of fact I'd thrown in late February into the equation as well for this winter for the Lakes (eastern especially), assuming the -AO/-NAO breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We don't want you back, you bring bad luck. Yes because you guys have seen so much snow since I left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just got back to WI from New Year's in NYC. Nice to have everything melted besides patches and piles of snow, I can finally drive my car around. MKX is saying we could get an inch of light snow overnight, associated with a vort max that's now over SD. Light precip is already breaking out in southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 can anyone link the UKIe total qpf maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 '99 was magical...certainly the best storm of my life with 2007 a close runner up. It was pegged fairly well by the media outlets in terms of "big storm coming" but the amounts were underdone. that was the gem around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 that was the gem around these parts. I had a little more snow in '99 and it was the first real blockbuster storm I can recall (by that I mean over 12") so it has some special meaning. It would probably take a 2 foot blizzard or something close to that to dethrone it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 EURO has a sub 996 low over Indiana at hr 108. Giving at least moderate snow to IL/S. WI/ IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z Euro way different than the 00z run. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 wow euro is totally totally different quick early look seems to be big PV retrograde ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z Euro way different than the 00z run. Sheesh. Last night was it's New Years hangover run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You can say that again. 0z run at the hr 126 mark, it had the big east coast storm with no precip at all in the MW. HR 114 mark on the 0z run, it has a sub 992 low over ohio. IND gets hit pretty good this run (probably .25-.5 QPF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Timing/strength of each wave is an absolute mess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.