Stevo6899 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You never, I repeat NEVER, tell someone in the east that a snowstorm will not verify for them, ESPECIALLY if you are not from that region. Basically this is what you do, take whatever run looks best for the east,, then reason as to why it is correct and discount the others. But of course you are just jealous of the run bc you are from Michigan. LOL our 6" snowstorm lasted 3 weeks, Philly's 12" snowstorm lasted 6 days. Exactly I was having this debate with a friend the other day. Would you rather have a 12-24 inch event once a month like the NE-midatlantic folks have and have it only last a week or would you rather have more frequent 3-4/4-8 inch events and have it stay on the ground for a few weeks. While I would love a huge snowstorm, theres no fun in watching it all melt away a week later. Just like last year in the midatlantic, 70 inches fell in like a months period and it was all gone like a week after from a crazy warmup. Nobody knows how next week or beyond is going to setup so for people to say the same pattern is going to occur is just being a negative nancy. The Nao is weakening and even with a -AO, I still think the great lakes will have a good next couple of months .Lets just hope a strong se ridge doesn't develop which would push storms too far west. I think the -AO that has been killing us could end up helping us down the road if a strong SE ridge and a neutral NAO develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The sight I woke up to 12 years ago to this hour is something I'll never forget as long as I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The sight I woke up to 12 years ago to this hour is something I'll never forget as long as I live. I know...measured 28" of snow on the ground at one point it was amazing for this area. Over 40 inches in 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Jan 1978 analog showing up again on the CPC 6-10 day outlook from yesterday. Entertaining nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Exactly I was having this debate with a friend the other day. Would you rather have a 12-24 inch event once a month like the NE-midatlantic folks have and have it only last a week or would you rather have more frequent 3-4/4-8 inch events and have it stay on the ground for a few weeks. While I would love a huge snowstorm, theres no fun in watching it all melt away a week later. Just like last year in the midatlantic, 70 inches fell in like a months period and it was all gone like a week after from a crazy warmup. Nobody knows how next week or beyond is going to setup so for people to say the same pattern is going to occur is just being a negative nancy. The Nao is weakening and even with a -AO, I still think the great lakes will have a good next couple of months .Lets just hope a strong se ridge doesn't develop which would push storms too far west. I think the -AO that has been killing us could end up helping us down the road if a strong SE ridge and a neutral NAO develop. Actually its looking like were heading to a very similar pattern for at least the next 15 days. Beyond that point, your right...no one knows. But for now plan on a Inch here and inch there kind of Snows for the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I know...measured 28" of snow on the ground at one point it was amazing for this area. Over 40 inches in 2 weeks And that's what made Jan 1999 so special. Jan 2-3 was the crown jewel, but the whole first half of that month was full of action. It wasn't a one and done deal. After the Jan 14-15 storm, there was 25.6" of snowdepth in downtown Toronto, which I believe is a record. In my 14 years of elementary/high school, the only 2 official snowdays I enjoyed were Jan 14/15, 1999 (of course, there were lots of other "unofficial" ones ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The sight I woke up to 12 years ago to this hour is something I'll never forget as long as I live. I think I slept until noon on the 3rd. I was out and about on the night of 1st until the early morning hours...then went to an after hours party...stumbled home at some point in the late morning hours of the 2nd...stayed up for the entirety of the 2nd watching the storm. Good times. Great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It is -33 F in parts of northern MN right now. Wow...amazing what snow cover and a clear, calm night will do. Overperforming indeed. It was -31F at INL at 8:00 AM this morning. Just think how cold it could get towards mid-Jan. if the GFS projctions of sub-500 dm thicknesses come anywhere close to verifying. Regarding the upcoming lack of snow for many of us: maybe we should just hope for a couple of inches of snow to be laid down across the midwest, just to get the upcoming cold to overperform as much as possible. Huge Siberian arctic outbreaks are rare and very interesting meteorologically! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think I slept until noon on the 3rd. I was out and about on the night of 1st until the early morning hours...then went to an after hours party...stumbled home at some point in the late morning hours of the 2nd...stayed up for the entirety of the 2nd watching the storm. Good times. Great storm. Wow, before models you could actually enjoy life when a storm was bearing down on you? It seems unthinkable today. I was only 12 at the time, so I wasn't participating in the same night life you were, but I went to bed at 10 and woke up at 9 the next morning. Didn't even get up once to check on the storm, which was at its worse while I slept. The next morning my parents were asking me, "how could you sleep through the thunder and lightning?". Man was I disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 And that's what made Jan 1999 so special. Jan 2-3 was the crown jewel, but the whole first half of that month was full of action. It wasn't a one and done deal. After the Jan 14-15 storm, there was 25.6" of snowdepth in downtown Toronto, which I believe is a record. In my 14 years of elementary/high school, the only 2 official snowdays I enjoyed were Jan 14/15, 1999 (of course, there were lots of other "unofficial" ones ). 25" that week! I remember in my Ford 150 just helping push people out of the snow for days in my sub/ neighborhood. It was overwhelming for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Wow, before models you could actually enjoy life when a storm was bearing down on you? It seems unthinkable today. I was only 12 at the time, so I wasn't participating in the same night life you were, but I went to bed at 10 and woke up at 9 the next morning. Didn't even get up once to check on the storm, which was at its worse while I slept. The next morning my parents were asking me, "how could you sleep through the thunder and lightning?". Man was I disappointed. thats comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The shoveling for that storm seemed endless. At one point I was working with a couple of my neighbors to clear driveways. I had a huge snowblower that could hardly keep up, it seemed every time we got the driveway clear enough, we were outside an hour later doing it again. At one point I decided to just let it go until the following morning, and then clear all the snow once it had stopped falling. I think we had a total of 16 or 17 inches from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Jan 1978 analog showing up again on the CPC 6-10 day outlook from yesterday. Entertaining nonetheless. Yes, it is an entertaining thought...hmmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Time to cancel winter as far as anything meaningful goes with snowstorm potential/LES here. Sorry but there is no coming back from this crap and nothing seems to wanna break this trend. Thus the surrender flag has risen. So add me to the SSC and blowme camp. All knows me and i am not one to usually say such a thing but seriously there is just no hope. NONE! If there was to be a change it would have happened with the last system but ala back to where we were. Congrats to those again on the eastcoast and in the n/nnw flow LES belts. It is just not meant to be for those of us up this way in the dead zone. Payback time for the past few winters i guess. Oh well. Seriously too. This is beyond my scope now with this extremely unusual pattern. Yeah i know what caused it but how it goes from here on out is another thing as it is doing what has basically never happened before with the blocking/-ao/-nao, nina etc. Thus out of my range. Climo/Nina etc says this pattern should not be here this month considering what happened last month/nina etc but ala it is here. Either way it tells me it is not going anywhere and till i see it gone with my own eyes and thus actually happens then i'll believe it is gone but not till then. I will say it is truly fascinating/amazing to see considering it is something that has basically never happened before atleast since record keeping began for this stuff. Unfortunately it is coming at our expense in this area/region. Maybe it will turn around and maybe tonights runs were bs. I would feel alot better if they are but all knows how that goes.. lol Again i'll believe it when i see it with my own eyes and not 5+ days away on some model. And yeah the euro ensembles have followed along with the OP run. Not as extreme but they usually are not anyways.. whoa............. disaster! this is from CoastalWX in the NE thread: Boy the pattern sure looks nice over the next two weeks. Big time -EPO developing and a returning -nao AGAIN at the end of the ensembles. With the trough axis to our west, it will open the door up for potential storm threats over the next 2 weeks. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if one of the storms brings ptype issues for some...but overall, looks like a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i think you're too early with your surrender.... I bet the mean trough begins to back west next week and we start seeing more ridging to the east and the awakening of the se ridge. Models are all over the place in the short term, but are even more diverse in the 7 + day range. If by the end of next week we are still dealing with this and there is no change in sight, I'll help you hoist the flag myself. As far as the euro goes, its been all over the place and seems to have developed some strange bias this season of developing massive BECS from NC to new england. thing is NE has been getting hosed too. SNE has gotten half the snow of areas further south and have watched storm after storm wallop areas just to their south. and CNE/NNE are in the same boat as the rest of us. many posters hadnt seen ANY snow until the storm after xmas.....that includes people in new hampshire and vermont! AO from hell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 And that's what made Jan 1999 so special. Jan 2-3 was the crown jewel, but the whole first half of that month was full of action. It wasn't a one and done deal. After the Jan 14-15 storm, there was 25.6" of snowdepth in downtown Toronto, which I believe is a record. In my 14 years of elementary/high school, the only 2 official snowdays I enjoyed were Jan 14/15, 1999 (of course, there were lots of other "unofficial" ones ). what about the year the mayor called in the army? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Wow, before models you could actually enjoy life when a storm was bearing down on you? It seems unthinkable today. I was only 12 at the time, so I wasn't participating in the same night life you were, but I went to bed at 10 and woke up at 9 the next morning. Didn't even get up once to check on the storm, which was at its worse while I slept. The next morning my parents were asking me, "how could you sleep through the thunder and lightning?". Man was I disappointed. Yeah, it's sorta funny. My weather weenieness was through watching TWC and local TV mets back in those days. Although I guess with the creation of weather forums and finding wx models, I've grown more "hardcore". What I remember was that there was certainly a long enough lead time that a big snow was going to occur, albeit in the end, most forecasts were still on the low side. Although I guess it's rare for anyone to forecast the big ones to a tee with respect to "exact" snowfall amounts. I always wonder what this forum would have been like if we were around for that storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i thought this was worth posting here Typhoon Tip's recollection of 78 Superbomb http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/6916-the-return-of-winter-pattern-disco/page__view__findpost__p__214864 amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 what about the year the mayor called in the army? I think that was just before the Jan 14-15 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think that was just before the Jan 14-15 storm. are you sure? i thought that was a different year.....i was away in school in 1999 in the US, and i seem to recall watching it on canadian news. you might be right though, im not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 this is from CoastalWX in the NE thread: Boy the pattern sure looks nice over the next two weeks. Big time -EPO developing and a returning -nao AGAIN at the end of the ensembles. With the trough axis to our west, it will open the door up for potential storm threats over the next 2 weeks. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if one of the storms brings ptype issues for some...but overall, looks like a good pattern. I like this outlook. I really think some are short changing the prospects for a good (great?) winter weather event for the bulk of us in the longer range. True the endless -AO has screwed some, while others have gotten spoiled. Regardless, I'm watching the NAO which looks to get to around neutral by mid month before tanking again. I'd personally watch for something significant around that timeframe for the Midwest/Lakes. Probably more from me than anything, but I guess I have a unexplainable good feeling about mid month. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 are you sure? i thought that was a different year.....i was away in school in 1999 in the US, and i seem to recall watching it on canadian news. you might be right though, im not sure. 100% sure. It was January 1999. Let me find you a link... http://archives.cbc.ca/environment/extreme_weather/clips/12772/ Broadcast date: Jan 13, 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I like this outlook. I really think some are short changing the prospects for a good (great?) winter weather event for the bulk of us in the longer range. True the endless -AO has screwed some, while others have gotten spoiled. Regardless, I'm watching the NAO which looks to get to around neutral by mid month before tanking again. I'd personally watch for something significant around that timeframe for the Midwest/Lakes. Probably more from me than anything, but I guess I have a unexplainable good feeling about mid month. We'll see. yeah im pleased about the big EPO dump. my hope is that the NAO doesnt tank as much at the end of the period.. chances of that happening are slim, i know.....hard to bet against a suppressive neg NAO at this point......although i think you could do fine in that pattern. for me, the clipper this week and then what happens with the storm at the end of the week are going to really shape my outlook for the rest of the winter. its a pivotal week here in the eastern lakes IMO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yeah im pleased about the big EPO dump. my hope is that the NAO doesnt tank as much at the end of the period.. chances of that happening are slim, i know.....hard to bet against a suppressive neg NAO at this point......although i think you could do fine in that pattern. for me, the clipper this week and then what happens with the storm at the end of the week are going to really shape my outlook for the rest of the winter. its a pivotal week here in the eastern lakes IMO.. -NAO/-AO is workable for here, obviously that panned out for December 2010 and even last winter. No monsters though, but I'm okay with that if something is happening. Of course the flip side is a 1/3(or half) of the region gets screwed...which is unfortunate. Alas, there have been many a winter where all the action stayed north of here, and we got screwed. Very hard it seems to get everyone in on the action at once. That being said, as I said in my previous post, I'm liking something bigger happening mid month for a good chunk of this forum. Probably a somewhat a <50% chance in reality, but I think there is potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yeah if i was further south, i dont think i would be feeling bad too about the north not getting snow lol. id be enjoying this historic pattern every minute of the way. and 90% of folks in the north im sure are quite happy with the current state of affairs........its just the sick weenies like us who are complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 100% sure. It was January 1999. Let me find you a link... http://archives.cbc....er/clips/12772/ Broadcast date: Jan 13, 1999. great link.......ahhh the memoires....thats when Toronto officially became an American city i stand corrected, and my memory is shot.....i began school in the US in the fall of 1999, explaining why i was around to listen to the canadian news after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z GFS trying hard in the 7-10 day range. Just relax the confluence/blocking over the NE a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 great link.......ahhh the memoires....thats when Toronto officially became an American city i stand corrected, and my memory is shot.....i began school in the US in the fall of 1999, explaining why i was around to listen to the canadian news after all. Nice video,buffalo had significant LES outbreak during that time frame also http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/lakeffect/storme.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z GFS trying hard in the 7-10 day range. Just relax the confluence/blocking over the NE a little. It drops 1038mb high at the end of the run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 -14F in Intl Falls -1F in Duluth and 23F here... Some cold air sitting to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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