michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Guaranteed will be gone. I give that run 0% chance of verifying. There is no way in hell the Polar Vortex drops down the Virginia and the Carolinas, If that ends up true then I'm Santa Claus. I am always amused at the way the models change run in and run out, but its also a little frightening how some people live and die with each model run in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 lol Stebo, they are ripping you in the philly thread. Saying something about how you are from Michigan and like the Lions or something like that. Pretty funny. Euro gives them another huge snowstorm at hr 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 lol Stebo, they are ripping you in the philly thread. Saying something about how you are from Michigan and like the Lions or something like that. Pretty funny. Euro gives them another huge snowstorm at hr 204. Yeah I noticed silly snow mongers latching on to one ridiculous run of the 'King'. Must be the after New Years hangover run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Guaranteed will be gone. I give that run 0% chance of verifying. There is no way in hell the Polar Vortex drops down the Virginia and the Carolinas, If that ends up true then I'm Santa Claus. I am still trying to figure out how the first major Blizzard happened with as much suppression that was present, also lack of any kind of robust subtropical jet to fuse the storm... then it happened anyways. LOL Just goes to show that weather is going to do what it wants no matter what the models say or how much we feel we know about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah I noticed silly snow mongers latching on to one ridiculous run of the 'King'. Must be the after New Years hangover run. It is more of the threat--not the exact ECM solution verifying. Philly/NYC is luckier than the Mid-Atlantic in this setup because it has wiggle room with that Canadian Vortex. That said, I give the current ECM run verifying verbatim small, but a NE/SNE threat is much more real, and earlier GFS runs suggested a threat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Time to cancel winter as far as anything meaningful goes with snowstorm potential/LES here. Sorry but there is no coming back from this crap and nothing seems to wanna break this trend. Thus the surrender flag has risen. So add me to the SSC and blowme camp. All knows me and i am not one to usually say such a thing but seriously there is just no hope. NONE! If there was to be a change it would have happened with the last system but ala back to where we were. Congrats to those again on the eastcoast and in the n/nnw flow LES belts. It is just not meant to be for those of us up this way in the dead zone. Payback time for the past few winters i guess. Oh well. Seriously too. This is beyond my scope now with this extremely unusual pattern. Yeah i know what caused it but how it goes from here on out is another thing as it is doing what has basically never happened before with the blocking/-ao/-nao, nina etc. Thus out of my range. Climo/Nina etc says this pattern should not be here this month considering what happened last month/nina etc but ala it is here. Either way it tells me it is not going anywhere and till i see it gone with my own eyes and thus actually happens then i'll believe it is gone but not till then. I will say it is truly fascinating/amazing to see considering it is something that has basically never happened before atleast since record keeping began for this stuff. Unfortunately it is coming at our expense in this area/region. Maybe it will turn around and maybe tonights runs were bs. I would feel alot better if they are but all knows how that goes.. lol Again i'll believe it when i see it with my own eyes and not 5+ days away on some model. And yeah the euro ensembles have followed along with the OP run. Not as extreme but they usually are not anyways.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I just need to add that the GFS has shown a huge amount of cold air late in the run the past couple days. 00Z looks just awful starting mid month. Looks dry around here with just shots of flurries and temps moving up and down, but nothing extreme until the mid month. It would be nice if the storm track shifted to give some others here some snow, but doubt that happens. 22F right now. Lions are a good team. A lot better then most think. Bears are overrated (offense smells), Packers could beat any team right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Must be a mistake repeat map from last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 06Z GFS looks mighty cold by the end of the run it sends down the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Time to cancel winter as far as anything meaningful goes with snowstorm potential/LES here. Sorry but there is no coming back from this crap and nothing seems to wanna break this trend. Thus the surrender flag has risen. So add me to the SSC and blowme camp. All knows me and i am not one to usually say such a thing but seriously there is just no hope. NONE! If there was to be a change it would have happened with the last system but ala back to where we were. Congrats to those again on the eastcoast and in the n/nnw flow LES belts. It is just not meant to be for those of us up this way in the dead zone. Payback time for the past few winters i guess. Oh well. Seriously too. This is beyond my scope now with this extremely unusual pattern. Yeah i know what caused it but how it goes from here on out is another thing as it is doing what has basically never happened before with the blocking/-ao/-nao, nina etc. Thus out of my range. Climo/Nina etc says this pattern should not be here this month considering what happened last month/nina etc but ala it is here. Either way it tells me it is not going anywhere and till i see it gone with my own eyes and thus actually happens then i'll believe it is gone but not till then. I will say it is truly fascinating/amazing to see considering it is something that has basically never happened before atleast since record keeping began for this stuff. Unfortunately it is coming at our expense in this area/region. Maybe it will turn around and maybe tonights runs were bs. I would feel alot better if they are but all knows how that goes.. lol Again i'll believe it when i see it with my own eyes and not 5+ days away on some model. And yeah the euro ensembles have followed along with the OP run. Not as extreme but they usually are not anyways.. I feel your pain. I see by your sig that I've got you beat by a whole .8" so far. It's painful watching MN and the EC getting blasted. Heck, even LAF has been getting in on those clipper-type systems. Looking at the models takes us to the half way point of met winter with not much hope for anything for you, me, Stebo/Patrick, or SSC coming down the pike. Guess it's time to take a break for a few days and hopefully we'll get some sort of pattern change late month or in Feb. Heck, we might even see a snow in March this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Time to cancel winter as far as anything meaningful goes with snowstorm potential/LES here. Sorry but there is no coming back from this crap and nothing seems to wanna break this trend. Thus the surrender flag has risen. So add me to the SSC and blowme camp. All knows me and i am not one to usually say such a thing but seriously there is just no hope. NONE! If there was to be a change it would have happened with the last system but ala back to where we were. Congrats to those again on the eastcoast and in the n/nnw flow LES belts. It is just not meant to be for those of us up this way in the dead zone. Payback time for the past few winters i guess. Oh well. Seriously too. This is beyond my scope now with this extremely unusual pattern. Yeah i know what caused it but how it goes from here on out is another thing as it is doing what has basically never happened before with the blocking/-ao/-nao, nina etc. Thus out of my range. Climo/Nina etc says this pattern should not be here this month considering what happened last month/nina etc but ala it is here. Either way it tells me it is not going anywhere and till i see it gone with my own eyes and thus actually happens then i'll believe it is gone but not till then. I will say it is truly fascinating/amazing to see considering it is something that has basically never happened before atleast since record keeping began for this stuff. Unfortunately it is coming at our expense in this area/region. Maybe it will turn around and maybe tonights runs were bs. I would feel alot better if they are but all knows how that goes.. lol Again i'll believe it when i see it with my own eyes and not 5+ days away on some model. And yeah the euro ensembles have followed along with the OP run. Not as extreme but they usually are not anyways.. Yeah, like I said to Chicago_Wx, I've already given up any hope that this will be a snowy winter. I'm just hopeful to minimize the damage and improve on last winter. I'd say we'll get 'em next winter but it looks like we're into -NAO/-AO for the long run. ENSO seems irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Eeek! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Eeek! Nothing beats a 1056mb high over Western Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Time to cancel winter as far as anything meaningful goes with snowstorm potential/LES here. Sorry but there is no coming back from this crap and nothing seems to wanna break this trend. Thus the surrender flag has risen. So add me to the SSC and blowme camp. All knows me and i am not one to usually say such a thing but seriously there is just no hope. NONE! If there was to be a change it would have happened with the last system but ala back to where we were. Congrats to those again on the eastcoast and in the n/nnw flow LES belts. It is just not meant to be for those of us up this way in the dead zone. Payback time for the past few winters i guess. Oh well. Seriously too. This is beyond my scope now with this extremely unusual pattern. Yeah i know what caused it but how it goes from here on out is another thing as it is doing what has basically never happened before with the blocking/-ao/-nao, nina etc. Thus out of my range. Climo/Nina etc says this pattern should not be here this month considering what happened last month/nina etc but ala it is here. Either way it tells me it is not going anywhere and till i see it gone with my own eyes and thus actually happens then i'll believe it is gone but not till then. I will say it is truly fascinating/amazing to see considering it is something that has basically never happened before atleast since record keeping began for this stuff. Unfortunately it is coming at our expense in this area/region. Maybe it will turn around and maybe tonights runs were bs. I would feel alot better if they are but all knows how that goes.. lol Again i'll believe it when i see it with my own eyes and not 5+ days away on some model. And yeah the euro ensembles have followed along with the OP run. Not as extreme but they usually are not anyways.. i think you're too early with your surrender.... I bet the mean trough begins to back west next week and we start seeing more ridging to the east and the awakening of the se ridge. Models are all over the place in the short term, but are even more diverse in the 7 + day range. If by the end of next week we are still dealing with this and there is no change in sight, I'll help you hoist the flag myself. As far as the euro goes, its been all over the place and seems to have developed some strange bias this season of developing massive BECS from NC to new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nothing beats a 1056mb high over Western Kansas. I guess I would prefer a 975 hpa Colorado Low ejecting into the plains and tracking NE, but I will take a good arctic outbreak too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I guess I would prefer a 975 hpa Colorado Low ejecting into the plains and tracking NE, but I will take a good arctic outbreak too. You obviously mean a 975 hpa low ejecting out of the western Gulf moving NE towards Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You obviously mean a 975 hpa low ejecting out of the western Gulf moving NE towards Cleveland Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You obviously mean a 975 hpa low ejecting out of the western Gulf moving NE towards Cleveland. I will take a Gulf Low too. Perhaps we can get a Gulf Low wavetrain going. My personal favorite. I still remember trick-or-treating during the famous Halloween storm. Probably my earliest weather memory. http://www.meteo.psu...91/us1101j3.php Honestly more of a Panhandle Hooker, but it had such a moist Gulf feed it is considered a hybrid Gulf Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i think you're too early with your surrender.... I bet the mean trough begins to back west next week and we start seeing more ridging to the east and the awakening of the se ridge. Models are all over the place in the short term, but are even more diverse in the 7 + day range. If by the end of next week we are still dealing with this and there is no change in sight, I'll help you hoist the flag myself. As far as the euro goes, its been all over the place and seems to have developed some strange bias this season of developing massive BECS from NC to new england. I've noticed that too, but I prefer to call them ECWS (East Coast Weenie Storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 359 AM EST MON JAN 03 2011 VALID 12Z FRI JAN 07 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 AN INCREASINGLY BROAD AREA OF THE CONUS WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL HGTS AS RIDGING OVER THE NRN PAC/ALASKA AND VICINITY ENCOURAGES HGT FALLS TO SINK SWD OVER THE WRN STATES... AND ANOTHER RIDGE ALBEIT A WEAKENING ONE OVER NRN CANADA KEEPS HGTS LOW OVER THE EAST ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WITHIN A DEEP ERN CONUS MEAN TROF THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFS WITH THE PATH OF CLOSED LOW ENERGY FCST TO BE OVER ONTARIO AS OF EARLY DAY 3 THU AND/OR UPSTREAM ENERGY THAT MAY UNDERCUT THE CLOSED LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF TAKES AN EXTREMELY SRN TRACK WHICH RESULTS IN A DEEP WRN ATLC SFC LOW THAT IS FARTHER SWWD THAN NEARLY ALL OTHER GUIDANCE BY EARLY DAY 5 SAT. AT THAT TIME THE 00Z ECMWF POSN IS FARTHER SWWD THAN ALL BUT ONE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBER AND ALL 00Z GEFS/12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 00Z GFS COMPARES BETTER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALOFT BUT ITS SFC EVOLUTION SHOWS SOME DETAILS THAT ARE NOT INDICATED IN THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLNS. THE CANADIAN GLBL USES UPSTREAM ENERGY TO GENERATE A PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST FRI NIGHT. FARTHER WWD... THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS TO BRING NERN PAC/WRN CANADA HGT FALLS INTO THE WEST. 00Z ECMWF TIMING IS CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT THE CLOSED LOW WHICH THE MODEL DEVELOPS JUST NE OF MT IS CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY SOLN. ACROSS THE SRN STREAM THERE IS SOMEWHAT IMPROVED MODEL CLUSTERING WITH RESPECT TO THE EWD EJECTION OF A CLOSED LOW FCST TO BE SW OF CA DAY 3 THU AND PROGRESSION OF AN ASSOC SFC WAVE. THE GEFS MEAN IS ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS RELATIVELY FAST AS IT REFLECTS EARLIER OPERATIONAL RUNS THAT WERE FASTER THAN THE NEW 00Z RUN AND OTHER LATEST MODEL SOLNS. CONFIDENCE IN A NUMBER OF OPERATIONAL MODEL SPECIFICS IS SUFFICIENTLY LACKING TO FAVOR A BLEND OF 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE DAYS 3-7 THU-MON FCST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INITIAL BLEND WERE MADE ON ONE OR MORE DAYS TO INCREASE DEFINITION SLIGHTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC. IN ADDITION SOME DEFINITION WAS ADDED TO THE EXPECTED SRN STREAM WAVE IN LIGHT OF IMPROVED MODEL CLUSTERING. TIMING WAS ADJUSTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF IN LIGHT OF PRIOR CONTINUITY THAT WAS FASTER. RAUSCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i think you're too early with your surrender.... I bet the mean trough begins to back west next week and we start seeing more ridging to the east and the awakening of the se ridge. Models are all over the place in the short term, but are even more diverse in the 7 + day range. If by the end of next week we are still dealing with this and there is no change in sight, I'll help you hoist the flag myself. As far as the euro goes, its been all over the place and seems to have developed some strange bias this season of developing massive BECS from NC to new england. Good observation. It is almost as if the amazingly intelligent folks in Reading, UK tweaked the deterministic output to develop EC bombs as much as possible. The ECMWF certainly has been the first to hint at EC coastals earlier than any other global model for the most part, right or wrong (it was right with the last storm). This coastal it has through 144 is number 3 this weak with the first two being completely ridiculous flukes mainly because it was out-to-lunch with the west coast cutoff low now giving the Sierra crest more snow than it really needs. Earlier runs tried to kick out the cutoff and phase it with the northern stream while a later run tried to remain progressive with the near cutoff only to phase it again near the GOM, developing a coast-hugging Miller A bomb. The ECM operational has definitely been on steroids lately. The latest 0Z has managed to develop two HECS crushing bombs, one at 120-144 and another at 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Suckage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Suckage We might get some good pixie dust storms this next week, it isn't all lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We might get some good pixie dust storms this next week, it isn't all lost. just read jb's post this morning. FWIW, (maybe just shizzles and giggles), Thinks the euro is out to lunch. first storm (hr 120) is a new england threat....maybe nyc. Next weeks storm amplifies much further west, getting it's act together in the w. gulf and becoming more of a widespread threat from the s. plains, mw, ov to northeast....followed by brutal cold. this week looks boring, but i'm still not ready to throw it all out like Harry.....as I said, let's see where we stand a week from friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah I noticed silly snow mongers latching on to one ridiculous run of the 'King'. Must be the after New Years hangover run. You never, I repeat NEVER, tell someone in the east that a snowstorm will not verify for them, ESPECIALLY if you are not from that region. Basically this is what you do, take whatever run looks best for the east,, then reason as to why it is correct and discount the others. But of course you are just jealous of the run bc you are from Michigan. LOL our 6" snowstorm lasted 3 weeks, Philly's 12" snowstorm lasted 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Keep in mind, nothing has happened one way or the other yet. Its frustrating that most people take every model run SO seriously. I mean theyve had one snowstorm on the east coast and thats it, and it didnt even hit a lot of the northeast, just the coast. A huge expansive area of NE has not had a 6" snowfall at all. Does this make them prime for another storm? Plus Ive said over and over that this is forecast by DTX to be a BACK-LOADED winter. It is JANUARY 3rd and in 2 days some went from excited to literally cancelling winter, a season which has nearly 4 months of snow potential left. All because of these damn models. Speaking of the models, in the past 3 days, these are a few loose, and I mean LOOSE, memories of what I have of the model performances: For starters, we started with a cold/dry look to the extended to which brought much lamenting from the midwest crowd. Then out of nowhere the GFS starts beefing up clipper/shortwave/les chances at the end of this week to which I said something like "let this be a lesson to all, whether the new trends verify or not, as to how quickly the models change and why we should never take the LR models, whether showing a good or bad scenario, seriously". I also seem to remember the EURO a few nights ago on the 00z had a storm cutting way to our west near the end of the run, now it shows the east coast bombs. Attitudes here have went from sour to sweet back to sour...and it is ALL still MANY DAYS AWAY from actually happening one way or the other. The 06z OP GFS has a total precip for the 384-hour period of 0.32" at DTW (all snow of course). The 06z GFS ensembles have a 384-hour precip total of 1.25-1.50" for DTW. Love these models. The places I used to come to and revel with others in the enjoyment of winter are no longer there. All of my coworkers hate snow, my friends/family are a more mixed bag, but even those who love snow do not follow models or anything. These boards were a place I could do that with others, talk trends etc. Now they have just become one big live and die by each model fest and its really depressing. Any mention of climo, and the fact that the snow season is currently about 25-30% over, any mention of backloaded winter projections, any mention of anything falls on deafs ear to the next set of model runs. Basically, Ive seen it every single winter. We have people claiming theres no hope, and as soon as a big snowstorm hits, the cancelling of winter is all a memory. Seen it every year on these boards. Every, single year, even the blockbuster winters a few years ago. Just hope for sanity sakes that storm hits sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well, those 2 warm days last week melted all the snow, which sucks. Hopefully I'll get another snowstorm to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It is -33 F in parts of northern MN right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah, like I said to Chicago_Wx, I've already given up any hope that this will be a snowy winter. I'm just hopeful to minimize the damage and improve on last winter. I'd say we'll get 'em next winter but it looks like we're into -NAO/-AO for the long run. ENSO seems irrelevant. I wonder if this going to be a trend for future winters to come. On average SEMI is at about 7-9" for the year...below average. It will be a struggle for SEMI to even pass 2 feet of Snow this year unless we get a spring suprise in mid to late March that seems to mask the futility of snow amounts in the winter. This current pattern were heading into is pretty much similar to pattern in December. First there was the outbreak of LES, then your Clipper that runs from Minneapolis to Cincy. In the long run theres a suppressed storm (jan12) that will start off as a West coast type of system heads into the plains dips south then rides along the Gulf then up the EC somewhere. Then a moderating period with a low rides up to toward Minneapolis brings Heavy Snow to the Upper Midwest....etc. etc Cold Winters=Dry Winters its the old saying in the GL. If its cold theres not a lot of Snow! Broken record winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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