snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 lets hope things are starting to pick up this week though ill believe it when i see it. I'm taking it one thing at a time. Looks like a potential 1-2" type deal on Tuesday, and we'll go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 fwiw, jb's thoughts on this upcoming pattern are that any big blockbusters will end up being lake cutters. Although it will be cold overall thru most of the country, the cold in the east and southeast will be a result of the brutal cold in the northern plains bleeding and spreading out. When amplification does occur, the true troughing will be centered more west. Also believes that after this week the southeast ridge will start fighting back in true la nina fashion. Other than that thinks there's a lot of potential for overrunning slop events as well....axis from amarillo to atlantic city. hmmm, he's kind of painting a '99 chicago blizzard-style picture. Where in light of the widespread cold, the storm ultimately cut well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 fwiw, jb's thoughts on this upcoming pattern are that any big blockbusters will end up being lake cutters. Although it will be cold overall thru most of the country, the cold in the east and southeast will be a result of the brutal cold in the northern plains bleeding and spreading out. When amplification does occur, the true troughing will be centered more west. Also believes that after this week the southeast ridge will start fighting back in true la nina fashion. Other than that thinks there's a lot of potential for overrunning slop events as well....axis from amarillo to atlantic city. hmmm, he's kind of painting a '99 chicago blizzard-style picture. Where in light of the widespread cold, the storm ultimately cut well west. crap, that sounds good for here but it's someone from Accufailure forecasting it so it won't come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 crap, that sounds good for here but it's someone from Accufailure forecasting it so it won't come true. lol...yea, i'm just shocked...never seen him so adamant about throwing the MA crowd under the bus for the rest of the winter, (other than predicting a potential overrunning slop event). Only giving DC area a 10% chance of getting in on a major eastcoast storm the rest of the winter. Thinks boston will definitely see some action though. looks like he thinks that any blockbuster phasing events the rest of the winter will either cut west or be miller B's favoring new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 lol...yea, i'm just shocked...never seen him so adamant about throwing the MA crowd under the bus for the rest of the winter, (other than predicting a potential overrunning slop event). Only giving DC area a 10% chance of getting in on a major eastcoast storm the rest of the winter. Thinks boston will definitely see some action though. looks like he thinks that any blockbuster phasing events the rest of the winter will either cut west or be miller B's favoring new england. yeah, basically that's kind of what the 0z GFS was showing last night with the overrunning. We shall see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 fwiw, jb's thoughts on this upcoming pattern are that any big blockbusters will end up being lake cutters. Although it will be cold overall thru most of the country, the cold in the east and southeast will be a result of the brutal cold in the northern plains bleeding and spreading out. When amplification does occur, the true troughing will be centered more west. Also believes that after this week the southeast ridge will start fighting back in true la nina fashion. Other than that thinks there's a lot of potential for overrunning slop events as well....axis from amarillo to atlantic city. hmmm, he's kind of painting a '99 chicago blizzard-style picture. Where in light of the widespread cold, the storm ultimately cut well west. Eh, I'll take it with a grain of salt. The AO says no for 40N north, though if it does manage to go positive and the NAO remain steady (negative) then congrats to MSP again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm taking it one thing at a time. Looks like a potential 1-2" type deal on Tuesday, and we'll go from there. exactly. i posted it in another thread, but im of the mind that we have a long long road back to respectability. one step at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 crap, that sounds good for here but it's someone from Accufailure forecasting it so it won't come true. its beem mentioned a lot in the new england thread also (by the respected mets).... that the trough is in the middle of the country but with an EPO blast, should keep the northern tier of the country wintry at least. they are pretty pumped up about the pattern shift (as am i) because the AO block has shafted them too compared to the rest of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Exactly. The most significant weather with a storm occurs in its developing stages (cyclonegenesis), not when the storm is at its "absolute maturity." If that were the case we would have seen plenty of wrap around snowstorms in this region. Exactly. And I may be a bit bias too becauase I care more about precipitation rates in a storm than the final storm total and other impacts. Let's face it, you're not going to get very high snowfall rates or huge flakes out of an already vertically stacked low (if you get a lot of precipitation at all). One thing's for sure, our unusual La Nina pattern continues, block or no block. The only saving grace for the Pacific NW and Plains is the -PDO and (thus) -PNA. In any event, the EURO does look interesting for a change, but that'll change again tonight. We need jet energy (Thus stronger/seperate pieces of energy) from the Pacific to phase with all the energy in Canada for the prospects of any "bombs." Of course if a ridge is forming in the aleutian then we might as well forget about the pineapple express and any hopes for a significant system for a while. That huge PV to the north will probably end up being useless outside the Lake Effect belts or if you like it cold/dry (by "dry", I'm not dimissing the opportunity for light/nuisance snows), it can't just create anything significant on its own. We also need to get rid of that -AO stat!! It does Nothing, zero, love, nada, zilch for us but keep everything surpressed to the south (if it doesn't take its time tracking through the SW), no matter how the pattern sets up. Eh, I'll take it with a grain of salt. The AO says no for 40N north, though if it does manage to go positive and the NAO remain steady (negative) then congrats to MSP again. Something tells me that no matter what any good pattern, model, forecast, etc shows for this area/region, you will be 1000% negative nelly until after a storm(s) has past, the snow is laid down, and you cant refute that fact anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Something tells me that no matter what any good pattern, model, forecast, etc shows for this area/region, you will be 1000% negative nelly until after a storm(s) has past, the snow is laid down, and you cant refute that fact anymore. I'm pretty much in the same ball park with snowstormcanuck right now with regards to what our future holds. A good pattern for most of us would be anything with a +AO (which we don't have now and probably won't have for the rest of the month). Until we can shake this blocking for good (a -AO does teleconnect with a -NAO, even if the -NAO isn't literally right there in your face) then I'm not really thrilled about any active pattern setting up in this region. Then again, I will admit light snows and cold/dry pattterns are great but they do nothing for me personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm going to take a guess that a severe - ao suppresses storms? Also does it relax when the nao relaxes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm going to take a guess that a severe - ao suppresses storms? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm going to take a guess that a severe - ao suppresses storms? Usually, yes. That's not to say if we can get a few other factors to work in our favor it can't be overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm pretty much in the same ball park with snowstormcanuck right now with regards to what our future holds. A good pattern for most of us would be anything with a +AO (which we don't have now and probably won't have for the rest of the month). Until we can shake this blocking for good (a -AO does teleconnect with a -NAO, even if the -NAO isn't literally right there in your face) then I'm not really thrilled about any active pattern setting up in this region. Then again, I will admit light snows and cold/dry pattterns are great but they do nothing for me personally. In my very limited research on "good snow teleconnectors", a weak +AO does seem to be better than -AO, but there are some notable exceptions where an AO index of -2 to -3 produced sustained snowy weather. What's worse is a west based -NAO. There really doesn't seem to be a way to get around that one for snowfall lovers in the Eastern Lakes. And in that regard, there's reason to smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Eh, I'll take it with a grain of salt. The AO says no for 40N north, though if it does manage to go positive and the NAO remain steady (negative) then congrats to MSP again. It'll be very interesting to see how a neutral or positive NAO reconciles with a strongly -AO. AFAIA, all AO measures is the spatial location of the PV (that is, a +AO means the PV is locked in the arctic, while a -AO means it's displaced somewhere at a lower latitude). So a -AO is not inherently bad for us, only in certain circumstances (usually in tandem with a Greenland Block or -NAO). If NAO is positive and we can sneak a bit of a SE ridge, -AO might help prevent a lot of storms from cutting hard, assuming the PV isn't displaced in Europe or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 It'll be very interesting to see how a neutral or positive NAO reconciles with a strongly -AO. AFAIA, all AO measures is the spatial location of the PV (that is, a +AO means the PV is locked in the arctic, while a -AO means it's displaced somewhere at a lower latitude). So a -AO is not inherently bad for us, only in certain circumstances (usually in tandem with a Greenland Block or -NAO). If NAO is positive and we can sneak a bit of a SE ridge, -AO might help prevent a lot of storms from cutting hard, assuming the PV isn't displaced in Europe or something. A PNA/NAO/+AO is best for our region. We might as well forget about the PNA this winter. EDIT: The -NAO will prboably still be around (although it will be weak in comparison to what we've seen), similar to what happened around December 12th. Even the ensembles show it going neutral at best before tanking again. The 14 day forecast shows it very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Like a broken record A few clippers followed by another 12DEC10 type storm at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 A PNA/NAO/+AO is best for our region. We might as well forget about the PNA this winter. The PNA is cycling between negative and positive in the small scale features each time a system comes thru. You had a negative weekly signal for both the 26OCT10 and 12DEC10 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 KMIZ 2 week forecast FWIW... The first week of the new year is shaping up to be rather quiet and seasonably cool, unlike the last week of 2010 and most likely nothing like the 2nd week of 2011 will be. After a slight warm up through Monday, a weak front will knock temperatures back down to the seasonal norm for this time of year on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will mostly be in the 30s. A stronger cold front is expected to pass through late Wednesday or early Thursday, dropping temperatures slightly below normal by the end of the week. Due to the fast upper-level winds, significant moisture will not have a chance to meet up with these systems thus precipitation will be hard to come by.By early next week (around Jan 8-10), a fresh batch of arctic air will begin moving across the Canadian border and will cause the jet stream to slow down. This will allow Pacific storm systems to dive further south across the central and southern Rockies, strengthen a little more before moving in, and thereby allowing more moisture to move up into the central part of the U.S. The chances for a measurable winter weather event are quite high next week as this moisture interacts with an advancing arctic air mass across the Plains. There are also strong signals for a period of well-below normal temperatures developing by the middle of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 18z GFS showing a small 1-2" event for northern IL at the end of the week. GEM is stronger and a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Sunday, January 2nd: Hi: 25F Lo: 13F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy. Max Wind Gust: 21MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Very cold outside. Frozen bare ground makes me think its rant time. I get such a kick out of how some people said a week or so ago to let us torch with a new years storm, so what if the snow goes, at least its "exciting" to have weather again. Well, I got 0.69" of rain over the entire system, so that is not the "dry and boring" stuff, the exciting storm had hardly any wind, took away a nice 5-inch snowcover, and the "beautiful" fog-laced dreary, damp 50-degree conditions that the general public was told by tv weathermen to be so excited over was quickly replaced by bitter cold and frozen but newly bare ground. GIVE ME COLD AND DRY ANY DAY OVER THAT. ANY DAY. Ok, rant over lol. Seriously, I guess Im in the "minority" of snowlovers here, but to me, cold, dry and white is more "exciting" than the most severe weather outbreak ma nature could torch onto us if its in the winter, even if it "promises" to cause a pattern change in which will merely cause the terrible models to become unbearable in forecasting the next snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Very cold outside. Frozen bare ground makes me think its rant time. I get such a kick out of how some people said a week or so ago to let us torch with a new years storm, so what if the snow goes, at least its "exciting" to have weather again. Well, I got 0.69" of rain over the entire system, so that is not the "dry and boring" stuff, the exciting storm had hardly any wind, took away a nice 5-inch snowcover, and the "beautiful" fog-laced dreary, damp 50-degree conditions that the general public was told by tv weathermen to be so excited over was quickly replaced by bitter cold and frozen but newly bare ground. GIVE ME COLD AND DRY ANY DAY OVER THAT. ANY DAY. Ok, rant over lol. Seriously, I guess Im in the "minority" of snowlovers here, but to me, cold, dry and white is more "exciting" than the most severe weather outbreak ma nature could torch onto us if its in the winter, even if it "promises" to cause a pattern change in which will merely cause the terrible models to become unbearable in forecasting the next snows. I'm in the give me 70 and sunny if it isn't going to snow camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Made it up to 31 today after starting out at 10. Today seemed like a day that should have been colder than what it was, but without snow cover the temps steadily rose. Looks pretty quiet for the next 7-10 days, with maybe a light coating of snow coming late this week. The overall weather pattern looks very benign to me. Unless something major changes I think we stay with little or no snow cover until mid to late Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm in the give me 70 and sunny if it isn't going to snow camp. Not me. Ill take 20 and cloudy over 70 and sunny, even if its with no snow. Sorry to sound crabby (funny thing is im not even in a bad mood). But basically, we now have bare ground (thanks to a worthless torch storm) with an uncertain future, when we could have white ground with an uncertain future. I say uncertain future because the condition of snowcover or lackthereof does not change the fact that the sucky models are nothing more than a very loose guide to predicting the weather for the coming week, and the living and dying that we all do with the models (myself included Im ashamed to say) sucks some of the fun out of winter. I mean think about it, if we get screwed we complain, if we get it good we rejoice, but we NEVER go through a snowstorm or snow system without constant worrying the week of, because of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not me. Ill take 20 and cloudy over 70 and sunny, even if its with no snow. Sorry to sound crabby (funny thing is im not even in a bad mood). But basically, we now have bare ground (thanks to a worthless torch storm) with an uncertain future, when we could have white ground with an uncertain future. I say uncertain future because the condition of snowcover or lackthereof does not change the fact that the sucky models are nothing more than a very loose guide to predicting the weather for the coming week, and the living and dying that we all do with the models (myself included Im ashamed to say) sucks some of the fun out of winter. I mean think about it, if we get screwed we complain, if we get it good we rejoice, but we NEVER go through a snowstorm or snow system without constant worrying the week of, because of models. yep, and the 'joy' only lasts until the storm is over and then we are back to looking for the next storm. Or, if you've got it bad, looking for the next storm while the current storm is ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 lol, Euro develops an east coast bomb this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 lol, Euro develops an east coast bomb this run worthy or double worthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 worthy or double worthy? Day after Tomorrow worthy. Bloomberg should just leave now worthy. It'll probably be gone on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Day after Tomorrow worthy. Bloomberg should just leave now worthy. It'll probably be gone on the 12z. Guaranteed will be gone. I give that run 0% chance of verifying. There is no way in hell the Polar Vortex drops down the Virginia and the Carolinas, If that ends up true then I'm Santa Claus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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