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GL/MW/OV Jan 2011 Discussion


TheWeatherPimp

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Euro got me about excited as when I was growing up and asked what's for dinner and the answer was, Baby Beef Liver and Onions. Guess its just suck it up time and look forward to hopefully a better 2nd half to winter. Funny thing is.. If you lived on the east coast or SNE something could pop up at any drop of a fart.. Here, I'll be lucky if anything but my wood pops up in another 5 yrs without help from a pill :arrowhead: Bed time I thinks :unsure:

:lmao: You crack me up lol. Actually funny thing is I think its actually the opposite. In the Great Lakes, while we spend time tracking cutters and hookers, something can always pop up at the drop of a fart, shortwaves, clippers, etc. No better climo to live if you want to see frequent snowfall. On the east coast its frequently weeks of boredom, if the right ingredients come together then boom you have a noreaster, but thats almost never something that just "pops up".

As for the coming weeks, I put the odds for my area at this:

Ice cover gets thicker and thicker for ice fisherman: 99%

A snowcover returns for the cold: 90%

A big snowstorm/something special happens: 40%

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For me there are 2 reasons NOT to worry. #1) most of the ensembles look better, at least qpf-wise, than the OP, and more importantly #2) 06+Z+GFS=:lol:

Oh I'm not worried about the misfit models ugly sister run. If this was 00z GFS 2 days out then I'd be a little worried :)

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I have often wondered about that myself? Thus what difference/impact on my life would have it made had the net ( in present form ) was around back when i was in my late teens/20s? For me anyways i guess i was just too busy ( out playing-hitting the bars/clubs etc ) to notice? Even in the great winter of 95-96 back east i did not slow down with what was then my normal routine. Hell i turned on TWC at the bar if need be but i still went out etc! :pepsi:

yeah thats pretty much the way it was for me in my 20s, its funny how we come back to our true passions as we age. :guitar:

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cold front has swung through ottawa back below freezing now at my parents house.

all the snow is gone for the most part.

just the snowpiles and snowbanks on driveway edges are left.

the last 12 or so hours of the torch was the worst, heavy fog and some rain showers, and then poof, it was all gone......but i guess it was just the holes coalescing into larger holes actually until it was just one big hole lol.

ill be back in MTL tonight, expecting the same when i get home.

impressive torch, nowhere near the level of jan 08, but still a solid torch. this time around, we only had about 6-10 inches of snowpack, but it was a several weeks old glacier.

hopefully we got it out of the way early and thats it.... and an epic 3 months stretch lies ahead.

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12 years ago to the date.

9AM CT/10AM ET observations

SPECI KSTL 021505Z 28013KT 3/4SM R30R/4500VP6000FT -SN BR VV012 M06/M06 A2971 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0002 $

METAR KPIA 021454Z 08019G26KT 1/4SM SN FZFG VV003 M08/M09 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 07027/1432 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP086 P0001 60002 T10831094 56028

METAR KLAF 021454Z 10023G34KT 3/4SM -SN BLSN BR FEW005 OVC023 M07/M08 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 10036/1444 PRESFR SLP097 SNINCR 1/9 P0001 60004 T10721083 58031 $

METAR KDTW 021454Z 10012G20KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN005 OVC015 M07/M08 A3030 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP273 P0000 60001 T10721083 58024 RVRNO $

METAR KMDW 021453Z 10020G30KT M1/4SM +SN BLSN VV002 M06/M07 A2992 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/1356 SLP148 R31C/2500V3000FT SNINCR 2/8 P0000 60000 T10611072 56034 $

METAR KORD 021456Z 09020G30KT 1/4SM R14R/2200V2800FT SN BLSN BKN003 OVC012 M06/M07 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 07035/1424 SLP148 SNINCR 1/8 P0000 60001 T10561067 56037

METAR KMKE 021456Z COR 09036G45KT M1/4SM R01L/1200V1600FT +SN BLSN OVC002 M06/M07 A3007 RMK AO2 PK WND 08045/1454 TWR VIS 1/4 PRESFR SLP196 SFC VIS 1/16 SNINCR 2/7 8/02/ P0004 60007 T10611067 58042 $ 3

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12 years ago to the date.

9AM CT/10AM ET observations

SPECI KSTL 021505Z 28013KT 3/4SM R30R/4500VP6000FT -SN BR VV012 M06/M06 A2971 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0002 $

METAR KPIA 021454Z 08019G26KT 1/4SM SN FZFG VV003 M08/M09 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 07027/1432 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP086 P0001 60002 T10831094 56028

METAR KLAF 021454Z 10023G34KT 3/4SM -SN BLSN BR FEW005 OVC023 M07/M08 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 10036/1444 PRESFR SLP097 SNINCR 1/9 P0001 60004 T10721083 58031 $

METAR KDTW 021454Z 10012G20KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN005 OVC015 M07/M08 A3030 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP273 P0000 60001 T10721083 58024 RVRNO $

METAR KMDW 021453Z 10020G30KT M1/4SM +SN BLSN VV002 M06/M07 A2992 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/1356 SLP148 R31C/2500V3000FT SNINCR 2/8 P0000 60000 T10611072 56034 $

METAR KORD 021456Z 09020G30KT 1/4SM R14R/2200V2800FT SN BLSN BKN003 OVC012 M06/M07 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 07035/1424 SLP148 SNINCR 1/8 P0000 60001 T10561067 56037

METAR KMKE 021456Z COR 09036G45KT M1/4SM R01L/1200V1600FT +SN BLSN OVC002 M06/M07 A3007 RMK AO2 PK WND 08045/1454 TWR VIS 1/4 PRESFR SLP196 SFC VIS 1/16 SNINCR 2/7 8/02/ P0004 60007 T10611067 58042 $ 3

I remember that storm quite well... it was a great one that's for sure. Plenty of snow, wind, and cold. I think we wound up with 16" or so by me...Whatever it was, it was quite a bit.

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A little bit ago I thought I heard what sounded like a robin outside. I couldn't believe my eyes when I looked out and saw one bouncing around in a clear spot in the back yard. With temps in the teens and a frozen ground I don't know what it's doing this far north LOL. I always thought these things flew south for the winter.

post-613-0-61613800-1293985461.jpg

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Looks like it's going to be the eastern Lakes time to shine soon. Nothing major, but they (MI, OH, ON, might as well include MN and WI too) could cash in on smaller amounts that could add up quite nicely. Just hoping to see a dusting or two down here in the mean time.

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Looks like it's going to be the eastern Lakes time to shine soon. Nothing major, but they (MI, OH, ON, might as well include MN and WI too) could cash in on smaller amounts that could add up quite nicely. Just hoping to see a dusting or two down here in the mean time.

Looks like Harry may finally cash in on some favorable lake effect flow in the mid to long range.....

...assuming lake michigan doesn't freeze up...lol

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Looks like it's going to be the eastern Lakes time to shine soon. Nothing major, but they (MI, OH, ON, might as well include MN and WI too) could cash in on smaller amounts that could add up quite nicely. Just hoping to see a dusting or two down here in the mean time.

I'm riding the GGEM :scooter:

12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120.jpg

12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_132.jpg

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One of the rare lows where the heavier precipitation is to the south of thelow and not much to the north and west.

'rare' being the key word...and why i'm suspicious of the ggem. Don't recall too many clippers passing thru the north/central lakes bringing the heaviest snow along I-70. If nothing else at least we've lost that frustrating look of the snow making it to IN and then drying up.

edit: actually looking at that slp map, it does look like the low extends much further south then i thought

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'rare' being the key word...and why i'm suspicious of the ggem. Don't recall too many clippers passing thru the north/central lakes bringing the heaviest snow along I-70. If nothing else at least we've lost that frustrating look of the snow making it to IN and then drying up.

edit: actually looking at that slp map, it does look like the low extends much further south then i thought

Models are bouncing around with the details...might be a few more runs until better clarification.

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At Day 7, the Euro and GFS are really really different.

One thing's for sure, our unusual La Nina pattern continues, block or no block. The only saving grace for the Pacific NW and Plains is the -PDO and (thus) -PNA.

In any event, the EURO does look interesting for a change, but that'll change again tonight. We need jet energy (Thus stronger/seperate pieces of energy) from the Pacific to phase with all the energy in Canada for the prospects of any "bombs." Of course if a ridge is forming in the aleutian then we might as well forget about the pineapple express and any hopes for a significant system for a while. That huge PV to the north will probably end up being useless outside the Lake Effect belts or if you like it cold/dry (by "dry", I'm not dimissing the opportunity for light/nuisance snows), it can't just create anything significant on its own.

We also need to get rid of that -AO stat!! It does Nothing, zero, love, nada, zilch for us but keep everything surpressed to the south (if it doesn't take its time tracking through the SW), no matter how the pattern sets up.

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Can definitely tell a difference in the way the temps are reacting with the bare ground now. Even though we started out very cold this morning, temps are slowly but surely inching back up towards the freezing mark. Unless we can get a return to a decent snow cover I'm not gonna get too excited about arctic outbreaks beyond day 7.

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