michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Euro got me about excited as when I was growing up and asked what's for dinner and the answer was, Baby Beef Liver and Onions. Guess its just suck it up time and look forward to hopefully a better 2nd half to winter. Funny thing is.. If you lived on the east coast or SNE something could pop up at any drop of a fart.. Here, I'll be lucky if anything but my wood pops up in another 5 yrs without help from a pill Bed time I thinks You crack me up lol. Actually funny thing is I think its actually the opposite. In the Great Lakes, while we spend time tracking cutters and hookers, something can always pop up at the drop of a fart, shortwaves, clippers, etc. No better climo to live if you want to see frequent snowfall. On the east coast its frequently weeks of boredom, if the right ingredients come together then boom you have a noreaster, but thats almost never something that just "pops up". As for the coming weeks, I put the odds for my area at this: Ice cover gets thicker and thicker for ice fisherman: 99% A snowcover returns for the cold: 90% A big snowstorm/something special happens: 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 = 06z GFS. For me there are 2 reasons NOT to worry. #1) most of the ensembles look better, at least qpf-wise, than the OP, and more importantly #2) 06+Z+GFS= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 For me there are 2 reasons NOT to worry. #1) most of the ensembles look better, at least qpf-wise, than the OP, and more importantly #2) 06+Z+GFS= Oh I'm not worried about the misfit models ugly sister run. If this was 00z GFS 2 days out then I'd be a little worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I have often wondered about that myself? Thus what difference/impact on my life would have it made had the net ( in present form ) was around back when i was in my late teens/20s? For me anyways i guess i was just too busy ( out playing-hitting the bars/clubs etc ) to notice? Even in the great winter of 95-96 back east i did not slow down with what was then my normal routine. Hell i turned on TWC at the bar if need be but i still went out etc! yeah thats pretty much the way it was for me in my 20s, its funny how we come back to our true passions as we age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 cold front has swung through ottawa back below freezing now at my parents house. all the snow is gone for the most part. just the snowpiles and snowbanks on driveway edges are left. the last 12 or so hours of the torch was the worst, heavy fog and some rain showers, and then poof, it was all gone......but i guess it was just the holes coalescing into larger holes actually until it was just one big hole lol. ill be back in MTL tonight, expecting the same when i get home. impressive torch, nowhere near the level of jan 08, but still a solid torch. this time around, we only had about 6-10 inches of snowpack, but it was a several weeks old glacier. hopefully we got it out of the way early and thats it.... and an epic 3 months stretch lies ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 12 years ago to the date. 9AM CT/10AM ET observations SPECI KSTL 021505Z 28013KT 3/4SM R30R/4500VP6000FT -SN BR VV012 M06/M06 A2971 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0002 $ METAR KPIA 021454Z 08019G26KT 1/4SM SN FZFG VV003 M08/M09 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 07027/1432 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP086 P0001 60002 T10831094 56028 METAR KLAF 021454Z 10023G34KT 3/4SM -SN BLSN BR FEW005 OVC023 M07/M08 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 10036/1444 PRESFR SLP097 SNINCR 1/9 P0001 60004 T10721083 58031 $ METAR KDTW 021454Z 10012G20KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN005 OVC015 M07/M08 A3030 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP273 P0000 60001 T10721083 58024 RVRNO $ METAR KMDW 021453Z 10020G30KT M1/4SM +SN BLSN VV002 M06/M07 A2992 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/1356 SLP148 R31C/2500V3000FT SNINCR 2/8 P0000 60000 T10611072 56034 $ METAR KORD 021456Z 09020G30KT 1/4SM R14R/2200V2800FT SN BLSN BKN003 OVC012 M06/M07 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 07035/1424 SLP148 SNINCR 1/8 P0000 60001 T10561067 56037 METAR KMKE 021456Z COR 09036G45KT M1/4SM R01L/1200V1600FT +SN BLSN OVC002 M06/M07 A3007 RMK AO2 PK WND 08045/1454 TWR VIS 1/4 PRESFR SLP196 SFC VIS 1/16 SNINCR 2/7 8/02/ P0004 60007 T10611067 58042 $ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 12 years ago to the date. 9AM CT/10AM ET observations SPECI KSTL 021505Z 28013KT 3/4SM R30R/4500VP6000FT -SN BR VV012 M06/M06 A2971 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0002 $ METAR KPIA 021454Z 08019G26KT 1/4SM SN FZFG VV003 M08/M09 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 07027/1432 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP086 P0001 60002 T10831094 56028 METAR KLAF 021454Z 10023G34KT 3/4SM -SN BLSN BR FEW005 OVC023 M07/M08 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 10036/1444 PRESFR SLP097 SNINCR 1/9 P0001 60004 T10721083 58031 $ METAR KDTW 021454Z 10012G20KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN005 OVC015 M07/M08 A3030 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP273 P0000 60001 T10721083 58024 RVRNO $ METAR KMDW 021453Z 10020G30KT M1/4SM +SN BLSN VV002 M06/M07 A2992 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/1356 SLP148 R31C/2500V3000FT SNINCR 2/8 P0000 60000 T10611072 56034 $ METAR KORD 021456Z 09020G30KT 1/4SM R14R/2200V2800FT SN BLSN BKN003 OVC012 M06/M07 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 07035/1424 SLP148 SNINCR 1/8 P0000 60001 T10561067 56037 METAR KMKE 021456Z COR 09036G45KT M1/4SM R01L/1200V1600FT +SN BLSN OVC002 M06/M07 A3007 RMK AO2 PK WND 08045/1454 TWR VIS 1/4 PRESFR SLP196 SFC VIS 1/16 SNINCR 2/7 8/02/ P0004 60007 T10611067 58042 $ 3 I remember that storm quite well... it was a great one that's for sure. Plenty of snow, wind, and cold. I think we wound up with 16" or so by me...Whatever it was, it was quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 A little bit ago I thought I heard what sounded like a robin outside. I couldn't believe my eyes when I looked out and saw one bouncing around in a clear spot in the back yard. With temps in the teens and a frozen ground I don't know what it's doing this far north LOL. I always thought these things flew south for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Hour 126 looks interesting..... LES anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Some stick around I think. Saw a chickenhawk kill one for food several years ago when we had a snowpack for 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looks like MSP and LaCrosse are in the axis of heaviest snow per latest GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looks like it's going to be the eastern Lakes time to shine soon. Nothing major, but they (MI, OH, ON, might as well include MN and WI too) could cash in on smaller amounts that could add up quite nicely. Just hoping to see a dusting or two down here in the mean time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Completely different run when compared to 00z for down here. The GFS taketh away again. I'm starting to feel like Charlie Brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Completely different run when compared to 00z for down here. The GFS taketh away again. I'm starting to feel like Charlie Brown. Yeah the storm around the 9th and 10th is completely gone on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looks like it's going to be the eastern Lakes time to shine soon. Nothing major, but they (MI, OH, ON, might as well include MN and WI too) could cash in on smaller amounts that could add up quite nicely. Just hoping to see a dusting or two down here in the mean time. Looks like Harry may finally cash in on some favorable lake effect flow in the mid to long range..... ...assuming lake michigan doesn't freeze up...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looks like it's going to be the eastern Lakes time to shine soon. Nothing major, but they (MI, OH, ON, might as well include MN and WI too) could cash in on smaller amounts that could add up quite nicely. Just hoping to see a dusting or two down here in the mean time. I'm riding the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 One of the rare lows where the heavier precipitation is to the south of thelow and not much to the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm riding the GGEM This looks like the clipper storm that came through in early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 One of the rare lows where the heavier precipitation is to the south of thelow and not much to the north and west. 'rare' being the key word...and why i'm suspicious of the ggem. Don't recall too many clippers passing thru the north/central lakes bringing the heaviest snow along I-70. If nothing else at least we've lost that frustrating look of the snow making it to IN and then drying up. edit: actually looking at that slp map, it does look like the low extends much further south then i thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 'rare' being the key word...and why i'm suspicious of the ggem. Don't recall too many clippers passing thru the north/central lakes bringing the heaviest snow along I-70. If nothing else at least we've lost that frustrating look of the snow making it to IN and then drying up. edit: actually looking at that slp map, it does look like the low extends much further south then i thought Models are bouncing around with the details...might be a few more runs until better clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This is hardly news to anyone, but..... GFS ensembles are super active beyond 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 CMC looks good EURO has .08 QPF for the southern half of Ohio. Its weaker with the clipper basically from what I can tell. Probably underdoing the QPF a bit. We'll see what happens. I knew the broad 1008 LOW that the 00z GFS showed for Wednesday night was a bit suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This looks like the clipper storm that came through in early December Indeed it does...follow the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 At Day 7, the Euro and GFS are really really different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Indeed it does...follow the pattern. Like a broken record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Models are bouncing around with the details...might be a few many more runs until better clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 At Day 7, the Euro and GFS are really really different. One thing's for sure, our unusual La Nina pattern continues, block or no block. The only saving grace for the Pacific NW and Plains is the -PDO and (thus) -PNA. In any event, the EURO does look interesting for a change, but that'll change again tonight. We need jet energy (Thus stronger/seperate pieces of energy) from the Pacific to phase with all the energy in Canada for the prospects of any "bombs." Of course if a ridge is forming in the aleutian then we might as well forget about the pineapple express and any hopes for a significant system for a while. That huge PV to the north will probably end up being useless outside the Lake Effect belts or if you like it cold/dry (by "dry", I'm not dimissing the opportunity for light/nuisance snows), it can't just create anything significant on its own. We also need to get rid of that -AO stat!! It does Nothing, zero, love, nada, zilch for us but keep everything surpressed to the south (if it doesn't take its time tracking through the SW), no matter how the pattern sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 12z Euro is quite cold by day 10. GFS has been consistently cold by mid month as well. I just hope we can get at least a few inches of snow on the ground again before any brutal cold moves back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This is hardly news to anyone, but..... GFS ensembles are super active beyond 180. lets hope things are starting to pick up this week though ill believe it when i see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Can definitely tell a difference in the way the temps are reacting with the bare ground now. Even though we started out very cold this morning, temps are slowly but surely inching back up towards the freezing mark. Unless we can get a return to a decent snow cover I'm not gonna get too excited about arctic outbreaks beyond day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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