snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Up to 54. Looks like the cold front is still back in E MI according to satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Eh, who knows when the extreme blocking returns...and in what strength and location. Bottom line though is the next couple of weeks look "prime" for your area to cash a little. How's this for strong blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Cold day here... Took a jog earlier with 7.5F temps and 30+ mph winds....brutal. 18z GFS looks pretty chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well I'm not impressed with the fact that if this storm does occur, it'll already be vertically stacked (which leads me to question if it will be significant at all), but I supose it's something (and I use the term loosely) to watch. It would definitely help if we could get a solution similar to the GGEM (where it sets up the PV back in the dakotas), but we still need some pacific energy to phase with for some real fun. Ultimately, we need to get rid of that menacing low/confluence around Nova Scotia before anything "appreciable" can happen in this neck of the woods. Just getting in on this discussion. My response is only regarding the 12 Z GFS. First, that storm at 144 is not even close to vertically stacked. One should use caution when looking at a vortex because embedded waves often develop within the vortex and can grow and amplify, even in NW flow. In this case, the vorticity gradient alone suggests this is not stacked. Slightly different topic, but a fun read regarding growth in NW flow. http://www.cimms.ou....tzsanders02.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Exactly. The most significant weather with a storm occurs in its developing stages (cyclonegenesis), not when the storm is at its "absolute maturity." If that were the case we would have seen plenty of wrap around snowstorms in this region. This is not necessarily true, and every storm is different with respect to how deep its cyclogenesis (tropospheric deep) is, or if it is just low level cyclogenesis, etc. Surface occlusion doesn't mean the storm has reached "maturity" overall, and deep tropospheric cyclogenesis can result in prolonged intensification and surface pressure falls well after the surface occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I've always thought there's a short window of time after occlusion...of course the longer it is after that process happens, the worse off you'll probably be in general. Yeah I think it's just the intense lift that develops when it's rapidly deepening that produces the best precip rates. While it may not be over as big an area as an occluded storm, the precip rates make up for it. Occlusion alone, especially in the low levels or near the surface can be very misleading. Some of the most intense storms often undergo "instant occlusion", especially plains storms where a strong S/W ejects into the plains out of the Rockies. A discussion for another day perhaps, but the Rockies block the orderly flow of cold air advection which in turn develops into lee cyclogenesis. This can be explained nicely by a number of competing discussions including Quasi-Geostrophic analysis, PV Analysis/stretching of vorticity, etc. Either way, this is why an ejecting wave into the plains will undergo rapid intensification early then (lee cyclogenesis) slower baroclinic intensification as the storm turns NE (this is also why lee cylcones track SE first then turn NE). It is a geostrophic adjustment process. Under this scenario, often times a typical Colorado Low has already occluded the second it has ejected into the plains as the cold front surging out of the Rockies overtakes the warm from in the CO high plains. Yet, typically the surface low will deepen for more than a day as the storm tracks into the Northern Plains. Here is an extreme example of a storm that underwent rapid occlusion at the surface with the mid/upper level front remaining in-tact with rapid deepening well after. WV loop. This beast pulverized Lead/Deadwood SD with 40 inches of snow in the Black Hills well after surface occlusion. http://cimss.ssec.wi...g12_wv_anim.gif Maps: http://www.meteo.psu...08/us0502j3.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 How do you tell if/when a low occludes? I can't tell from looking at the maps, or the satellite images... Of course, I wouldn't know what to look for in the first place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Just catching up with models. looks like it will get really cold. to bad there is less snow cover or none. the gem has a stronger vort coming out but doesn't have any agreement on that level with other models..but would have a nice slug of WAA precip into this area with another snow event. someone will get snow with the PV moving south around it..hell maybe even the GOM states if a southern vort can move out and tap that arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 How do you tell if/when a low occludes? I can't tell from looking at the maps, or the satellite images... Of course, I wouldn't know what to look for in the first place... From what I understand the H5, H7, H8, SLP are pretty much vertically stacked. but I don't even think you really need the SLP to be stacked either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Imagine how we feel up here in northern Michigan. We literally have no snow left on the ground...just a few piles. I've only recorded 25.8" for the season so far. Simply amazing! Check out the pics I snapped a couple hours ago of the office for our web story. Wow that is just incredible to see at this time of year in Gaylord. How much snow depth did you start at pre-thaw? For me, the thing that was so amazing wasnt so much seeing bare ground on Jan 1st (thats not really unheard of in SE MI, you figure that odds of 1"+ snowpack on Christmas is 50%, its not until the dead of winter in late January when your odds are in the 75%+ range). What was amazing is that the size/look of the snowpack here (due to its high water content) literally did not budge for 3 weeks. It started on Dec 12th at 6" for about 3 days then settled to 5" and held at that number all the way through New Years Eve. Then poof. Like magic it ALL vanished in a day, and now that the temp has finally fallen well below freezing, its too late, as though a few little frozen snow piles remain on some peoples driveways, the only REAL noticeable snow anywhere is the cookies-and-cream glaciers in the parking lots. The cold is back for the foreseeable future after this miserable torch, so it shouldnt be long to see white again I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am hoping the GFS ensemble mean is on to something outside of Day 10 with that huge -EPO and the breakdown of that persistent -NAO blocking. Cold and frigid, and if one of those arctic fronts can dive deep enough south it could get fun. Either way a more persistent pattern of storms looks possible. That is my weenie like long-range discussion. More advanced long-range folks chime in and add to it...I don't pretend to know much about long range patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF NEW TEMPERATURES RECORDS AS OF 7 PM. NOTE THAT THE OFFICIAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. ------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR WINDSOR AIRPORT 11.3 10.4 2007 GODERICH 12.1 9.9 2007 WATERLOO-WELLINGTON 10.5 8.3 1979 HAMILTON AIRPORT 11.1 10.6 1966 BURLINGTON PIERS 12.7 10.7 2007 TORONTO PEARSON 12.0 9.2 2007 TORONTO DOWNTOWN 10.7 10.1 2007 TORONTO ISLAND 9.0 8.7 2007 TORONTO BUTTONVILLE 11.4 9.6 2007 COBOURG 7.6 7.2 2007 MOUNT FOREST 9.0 8.8 2007 COLLINGWOOD 11.5 9.8 2007 LAGOON CITY 8.0 6.0 2007 MUSKOKA AIRPORT 8.2 6.7 2007 PARRY SOUND 8.2 7.0 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 It was like that around here too... We were holding right around 6" worth of snow pack all the way through to Thursday, and then "poof"... by the end of the day Friday it was nowhere to be seen. Hopefully we can see something by the end of the week to cover the ground, because, frankly, the gray/green/brown grass really is not all that appealing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF NEW TEMPERATURES RECORDS AS OF 7 PM. NOTE THAT THE OFFICIAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. ------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR WINDSOR AIRPORT 11.3 10.4 2007 GODERICH 12.1 9.9 2007 WATERLOO-WELLINGTON 10.5 8.3 1979 HAMILTON AIRPORT 11.1 10.6 1966 BURLINGTON PIERS 12.7 10.7 2007 TORONTO PEARSON 12.0 9.2 2007 TORONTO DOWNTOWN 10.7 10.1 2007 TORONTO ISLAND 9.0 8.7 2007 TORONTO BUTTONVILLE 11.4 9.6 2007 COBOURG 7.6 7.2 2007 MOUNT FOREST 9.0 8.8 2007 COLLINGWOOD 11.5 9.8 2007 LAGOON CITY 8.0 6.0 2007 MUSKOKA AIRPORT 8.2 6.7 2007 PARRY SOUND 8.2 7.0 2007 Didn't realize New Year's Day 2007 was recording breaking warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am hoping the GFS ensemble mean is on to something outside of Day 10 with that huge -EPO and the breakdown of that persistent -NAO blocking. Cold and frigid, and if one of those arctic fronts can dive deep enough south it could get fun. Either way a more persistent pattern of storms looks possible. That is my weenie like long-range discussion. More advanced long-range folks chime in and add to it...I don't pretend to know much about long range patterns. If we can hang onto some sort of SE ridge it really will put a huge battle zone in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I actually saw some patches of snow by a golf course that survived the torch. Not sure how, but they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 If we can hang onto some sort of SE ridge it really will put a huge battle zone in place. It definitely looks interesting, and even if it doesn't result in large winter storms, I will gladly take a pattern change and some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am hoping the GFS ensemble mean is on to something outside of Day 10 with that huge -EPO and the breakdown of that persistent -NAO blocking. Cold and frigid, and if one of those arctic fronts can dive deep enough south it could get fun. Either way a more persistent pattern of storms looks possible. That is my weenie like long-range discussion. More advanced long-range folks chime in and add to it...I don't pretend to know much about long range patterns. Yep and the 12z euro ensembles basically have the same general idea so there *could* be something more to it. Would be a great pattern especially for those who have been shafted up to this point. It certainly has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 If anything, the Jan 7-10 time frame looks like a decent LES setup for NW IN and SW MI. Maybe some LE for the western shore of the lake, but not much. After that, it doesn't look like much comes near NE IL, but, then it is 10 days out.....Sfc temps are cold in that time frame. At the end of the run, it spins up a storm that goes from the GOM up the east coast... I wonder if the ECers have started a thread on that one yet........ Oh yeah, there is also the one at hr 156.....right off of NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS is now stronger with the lead shortwave but not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Has light snow Wednesday night. with a broad 1008 LOW with most of the moisture south. That raised an eyebrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Wow that is just incredible to see at this time of year in Gaylord. How much snow depth did you start at pre-thaw? For me, the thing that was so amazing wasnt so much seeing bare ground on Jan 1st (thats not really unheard of in SE MI, you figure that odds of 1"+ snowpack on Christmas is 50%, its not until the dead of winter in late January when your odds are in the 75%+ range). What was amazing is that the size/look of the snowpack here (due to its high water content) literally did not budge for 3 weeks. It started on Dec 12th at 6" for about 3 days then settled to 5" and held at that number all the way through New Years Eve. Then poof. Like magic it ALL vanished in a day, and now that the temp has finally fallen well below freezing, its too late, as though a few little frozen snow piles remain on some peoples driveways, the only REAL noticeable snow anywhere is the cookies-and-cream glaciers in the parking lots. The cold is back for the foreseeable future after this miserable torch, so it shouldnt be long to see white again I hope. It's bare ground in Toronto, and in Ottawa as well I gather. Pretty amazing stuff. It's looking up for us later this week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS depicting an impressive long-fused east wind lake enhanced event for Toronto with that second clipper. Basically an 80-120 flow between 108 and 144, with decent delta-ts and limited shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 has the clipper about 24hrs late. I am not buying the front runner quite yet. First time we have seen that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 then another storm next Sunday taking shape.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Its no wonder some people can't stand winter... Today is the perfect example. Go from 50's to the teens with winds gusting to near 40 with a bare ground and dust and leaf blizzard conditions. Put me under palms tree's any day over this ****. I'm already missing the old pattern... at least some folks weren't getting boned and there was actually something to track.. Now we'll flip to something else that will bone me over in even more interesting ways I'm sure. Atl least there is lots of ice on the lakes - that boobie prize is only going to last so much longer for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Its no wonder some people can't stand winter... Today is the perfect example. Go from 50's to the teens with winds gusting to near 40 with a bare ground and dust and leaf blizzard conditions. Put me under palms tree's any day over this ****. I'm already missing the old pattern... at least some folks weren't getting boned and there was actually something to track.. Now we'll flip to something else that will bone me over in even more interesting ways I'm sure. Atl least there is lots of ice on the lakes - that boobie prize is only going to last so much longer for me. yep, a pattern where all the storms are going to your south and you are going to just be frigid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 We're only 1/3 of the way through meteorological winter. Still a long way to go, so anything is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 yep, a pattern where all the storms are going to your south and you are going to just be frigid.... I dealt with those kind of winters fine when there wasn't the internet in my life to feed my snow addiction. Worse thing that could every happen to me was to find out there were other snow nuts like me online... and weather models to F with my emotions and highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I dealt with those kind of winters fine when there wasn't the internet in my life to feed my snow addiction. Worse thing that could every happen to me was to find out there were other snow nuts like me online... and weather models to F with my emotions and highs. Love your location by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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