snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12 years ago...she was underway. :wub: http://mesonet.agron...our=12&minute=0 12 years have come and gone and that's still the undisputed King imby. As a testament to how cold it was in advance of this storm, you can barely see a bit of multi-band LES of Lk Michigan ahead of the synoptic shield. I'd gather that's pretty rare, as opposed to having LES setup in the CAA behind a storm, which is more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well I'm not impressed with the fact that if this storm does occur, it'll already be vertically stacked (which leads me to question if it will be significant at all), but I supose it's something (and I use the term loosely) to watch. It would definitely help if we could get a solution similar to the GGEM (where it sets up the PV back in the dakotas), but we still need some pacific energy to phase with for some real fun. Ultimately, we need to get rid of that menacing low/confluence around Nova Scotia before anything "appreciable" can happen in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 yeah im actually of the belief that we needed some sort of a signal that the blocking has broken down/changed. its not a scientific approach, but... i am *extremely* encouraged by the appearance of clippers that can make it through the flow across the lakes region all the way to the east coast intact. we havent seen anything like this since janaury 2008. in fact the modeled storm for the end of next week is a similar northern branch system to the last relevant W-E moving system at the end of jan 2008. ironically, that storm signalled the end of synoptic winter for many parts of the upper and eastern lakes. so we are talking a nearly 2 year period since! ..... this is huge development IMO......hopefully it doesnt disappear as we get closer, but we have the clipper on tuesday, i never thought i'd be so happy about seeing a low-end clipper lol. we'll see about the blocking returning, but the latest model runs have me thinking of getting on the Harry train at least. Jan 2009 I think you mean. In Jan 2008, winter was just getting started. And which storm are you referring to? The southern stream storm on Jan 28-29, 2009 or that vigorous northern stream ul storm on Feb 2-3, 2009 that was 5 days earlier supposed to be the bomb of the century? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12 years have come and gone and that's still the undisputed King imby. As a testament to how cold it was in advance of this storm, you can barely see a bit of multi-band LES of Lk Michigan ahead of the synoptic shield. I'd gather that's pretty rare, as opposed to having LES setup in the CAA behind a storm, which is more common. It's my benchmark storm too. Feb 2007 was awesome here and I was too young to remember Jan 1978 or Jan 1979. But yeah, the cold out in front of the storm was amazing...and the fact that it didn't get swept away in places such as LAF, despite the track basically going right over top of here. Amazing really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It's my benchmark storm too. Feb 2007 was awesome here and I was too young to remember Jan 1978 or Jan 1979. But yeah, the cold out in front of the storm was amazing...and the fact that it didn't get swept away in places such as LAF, despite the track basically going right over top of here. Amazing really. That was basically a perfect situation with the antecedent cold and timing of occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well I'm not impressed with the fact that if this storm does occur, it'll already be vertically stacked (which leads me to question if it will be significant at all), but I supose it's something (and I use the term loosely) to watch. It would definitely help if we could get a solution similar to the GGEM (where it sets up the PV back in the dakotas), but we still need some pacific energy to phase with for some real fun. Ultimately, we need to get rid of that menacing low/confluence around Nova Scotia before anything "appreciable" can happen in this neck of the woods. Don't get this part. When a storm is closed off at H5 and stacked it's reached its peak strength, its absolute maturity. So it's significant from a meteorological "academic" standpoint, and also usually produces significant sensible wx (GFS depiction at 144 is likely near blizzard conditions in E MI and N OH). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Jan 2009 I think you mean. In Jan 2008, winter was just getting started. And which storm are you referring to? The southern stream storm on Jan 28-29, 2009 or that vigorous northern stream ul storm on Feb 2-3, 2009 that was 5 days earlier supposed to be the bomb of the century? yeah whoops got my 2 year period mixed up lol mean end of jan 2009 and yeah u're right, we had that southern stream system at the end of the month, i shoulda remembered since i got caught out on the roads in it. i was actually referring the jan 18-19 or so event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Don't get this part. When a storm is closed off at H5 and stacked it's reached its peak strength, its absolute maturity. So it's significant from a meteorological "academic" standpoint, and also usually produces significant sensible wx (GFS depiction at 144 is likely near blizzard conditions in E MI and N OH). Exactly. The most significant weather with a storm occurs in its developing stages (cyclonegenesis), not when the storm is at its "absolute maturity." If that were the case we would have seen plenty of wrap around snowstorms in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Exactly. The most significant weather with a storm occurs in its developing stages (cyclonegenesis), not when the storm is at its "absolute maturity." If that were the case we would have seen plenty of wrap around snowstorms in this region. That's just not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z Euro takes the low southwest of Michigan and Toronto just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 yeah im actually of the belief that we needed some sort of a signal that the blocking has broken down/changed. its not a scientific approach, but... i am *extremely* encouraged by the appearance of clippers that can make it through the flow across the lakes region all the way to the east coast intact. we havent seen anything like this since janaury 2008. in fact the modeled storm for the end of next week is a similar northern branch system to the last relevant W-E moving system at the end of jan 2008. ironically, that storm signalled the end of synoptic winter for the eastern lakes. so we are talking a nearly 2 year period since! ..... this is huge development IMO......hopefully it doesnt disappear as we get closer, but we have the clipper on tuesday, i never thought i'd be so happy about seeing a low-end clipper lol. we'll see about the blocking returning, but the latest model runs have me thinking of getting on the Harry train at least. DTX said clippers should be in abundance this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Exactly. The most significant weather with a storm occurs in its developing stages (cyclonegenesis), not when the storm is at its "absolute maturity." If that were the case we would have seen plenty of wrap around snowstorms in this region. We should get a met in here to be sure, but I really don't think so. I think the average storm can be more "significant" (the term you used) when it's in the process of occluding (ie, weakening from absolute maturity), than when it's in its initial development stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z Euro takes the low southwest of Michigan and Toronto just kidding We need to get that fist shake emoticon. Actually, 12z EURO looks a little too amped up. I wouldn't mind a little SW adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z Euro takes the low southwest of Michigan and Toronto just kidding. That's cold. It seems like the 12z Euro snows on Toronto (and the rest of Ontario) for the foreseeable future with these clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z Euro takes the low southwest of Michigan and Toronto just kidding lol southwest is the new northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 We should get a met in here to be sure, but I really don't think so. I think the average storm can be more "significant" (the term you used) when it's in the process of occluding (ie, weakening from absolute maturity), than when it's in its initial development stage. I personally haven't experienced a storm like that (that's more significant when its weakening from absoluate maturity), so I could be wrong. The precipitation (At least from what I've seen) is most intense & widespread when a storm is stregthening, then when that storm has peaked (vertically stacked) that same precipitation diminishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I've always heard the best time for precip is when a storm is rapidly deepening and maturing and less when it's occluding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I've always heard the best time for precip is when a storm is rapidly deepening and maturing and less when it's occluding. Exactly. And I may be a bit bias too becauase I care more about precipitation rates in a storm than the final storm total and other impacts. Let's face it, you're not going to get very high snowfall rates or huge flakes out of an already vertically stacked low (if you get a lot of precipitation at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It is truly amazing to look outside and see completely bare ground. To go from a cold and very white December to wake up Jan 1st and see hardly even any snow piles in people driveways, just a few here and there, is depressing. Still a lot in parking lots from plows (which will be harder than a rock in a few hours) but big deal. Luckily, it looks like MAYBE we wont even have to deal with this bare ground for a week. Imagine how we feel up here in northern Michigan. We literally have no snow left on the ground...just a few piles. I've only recorded 25.8" for the season so far. Simply amazing! Check out the pics I snapped a couple hours ago of the office for our web story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Imagine how we feel up here in northern Michigan. We literally have no snow left on the ground...just a few piles. I've only recorded 25.8" for the season so far. Simply amazing! Check out the pics I snapped a couple hours ago of the office for our web story. The fact that it looks like it could very well stay below freezing now through at least the next two weeks means that the snowcover will easily rebuild in Gaylord. It sucks that all the snow melted but really it was just a two to three day warm up sandwiched in between generally AOB normal temps. It's nothing like those late '90s winters or 06-07 type of winter. Those late '90s winters were brutal for snowlovers and for economies based on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I've always heard the best time for precip is when a storm is rapidly deepening and maturing and less when it's occluding. I've always thought there's a short window of time after occlusion...of course the longer it is after that process happens, the worse off you'll probably be in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Imagine how we feel up here in northern Michigan. We literally have no snow left on the ground...just a few piles. I've only recorded 25.8" for the season so far. Simply amazing! Check out the pics I snapped a couple hours ago of the office for our web story. Looks like late April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Exactly. And I may be a bit bias too becauase I care more about precipitation rates in a storm than the final storm total and other impacts. Let's face it, you're not going to get very high snowfall rates or huge flakes out of an already vertically stacked low (if you get a lot of precipitation at all). I think you're exaggerating too much to prove your point. I can think of a number of storms that were stacked and still produced significant comma head/WCB precipitation. Maybe several hours after the occlusion has taken place, the precipitation shield starts to fall apart, but once maturity is achieved, and maybe a little while thereafter, I'd image that's when the most intense snow/wind coalesce for the most "significant" sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I've always thought there's a short window of time after occlusion...of course the longer it is after that process happens, the worse off you'll probably be in general. Yeah I think it's just the intense lift that develops when it's rapidly deepening that produces the best precip rates. While it may not be over as big an area as an occluded storm, the precip rates make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Been getting very light snow showers here off and on for the last few hours. The flakes are very small, almost like salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Just thought I would put this in here. What a year 2010 was, particularly for Minnesota. Our Forecasters were impressed... WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE DAKOTAS AND NEARING WESTERN MN...TO TORNADO WARNINGS IN AL AND MS...AND A HARD FREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERT...IT WOULD SEEM 2011 IS IN LIKE A LION. AND 2010 WAS CERTAINLY A LION IN WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...BEING A STATISTICALLY IMPRESSIVE AND MAJOR IMPACTING YEAR. ANY METEOROLOGIST OR WEATHER ENTHUSIAST SHOULD TAKE JUST A MINUTE THIS NEW YEARS TO REFLECT ON THE NUMBERS AND MAGNITUDES OF THE EVENTS...THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF PARAMETERS...AND THE RECORDS THAT WERE SHATTERED. FROM A SNOWLESS MARCH AND APRIL IN THE WARMEST SPRING ON RECORD...TO A RECORD SEVERE WEATHER SEASON THAT WAS DECEIVINGLY SLOW TO START BUT WOULD HOLD THE LARGEST TORNADO OUTBREAK IN MN RECORDED HISTORY...TO A SUMMER THAT WAS WARMER AND MOIST THAN MOST PROVIDING TWO INCH PWATS NINE TIMES AT MPX...TO A SEPTEMBER DELUGE AND SUBSEQUENT RIVER FLOOD...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE BOMB BREAKING MN PRESSURE RECORDS...TO THE INCREDIBLE START OF THIS WINTER SEASON WHERE WINTER STORMS HAVE BEEN ON A CONVEYOR BELT INTO THE AREA...TO HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON DEC 30TH AND SLEET/HAIL/GRAUPEL AND THUNDER ON NEW YEARS EVE...2010 GAVE US EVENTS THAT WERE SOME OF THE MOST INTRIGUING AND IMPACTING IN THE NATION. ON MULTIPLE OCCASIONS THIS MADE MANY OF THE LONG TIME FORECASTING VETERANS HERE AT WFO MPX COMMENT THEY HAD NEVER SEEN THAT BEFORE...AND WE MAY NOT AGAIN. SO WHAT A WEATHER YEAR 2010 WAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I'm always mildly entertained by the CPC analogs in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. And then this pops up in the 8-14 outlook from today...1/29/1978. Yeah not the exact date, but close enough. One can always dream... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I'm always mildly entertained by the CPC analogs in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. And then this pops up in the 8-14 outlook from today...1/29/1978. Yeah not the exact date, but close enough. One can always dream... http://www.cpc.ncep....4analog.off.gif I support that analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 IND dropped temps for late week but would still be conservative if the latest runs pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Haven't checked LOT yet, but local mets have put snow in the forecast for Thursday. Either Christmas Eve, or Christmas Day, I was checking the GFS, and it was showing the clipper for the Jan 7th time frame. When I checked a few days later, it lost it for a couple of days, now it's nice to see it's back. There isn't a snow pile anywhere in my neighborhood, save for the school parking lot down the street. It looks a feels like a cold November day outside. One could almost imagine it's not even Thanksgiving yet, just by the way the weather feels. Happy 2011, everyone.... Hope we get January off to a good start snow-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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