VAwxman Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Considering the current blocking is basically being blown to pieces my hunch is that this does not remain a se threat and or *just* a se threat. Keep in mind as well this is beyond day 8 and thus very likely to change as far as track etc goes. If i had to tag any system as the best candidate for a nw trend so far this would be it. Not saying it ends up here, MN etc but such a shift would not surprise me. All depends on timing/track with the northern and southern energy. Count me among those who thinks the big ole block we had up till now is not returning for a while anyways. Thus i strongly suspect models are overdoing it with the southern stuff which is a common occurrence in La'Nina. Keep in mind too this is not northern energy diving south either as we have been seeing as the northern energy looks to remain further north thanks to less blocking now. Even last winter ( which some are making comparisons to ) the block relaxed a bit in January and that was with a Nino and everything else that is usually good for blocking. Thus i highly doubt this winter exceeds that. Ofcourse it could all end up being nothing. However i do think there is *some* potential for more up in this region etc. Something i would/will atleast keep a eye on the next several days. Other then that not really much except for maybe a weaker clipper or two which may fire up the LES a bit. It does look like we will be able to at least temporarily shoot down the NAO block to some degree, as it is progged to relax down the road, though still staying negative. All the while, the next pulse of tropical forcing should lead to a rise in AAM, and with assistance by the higher Siberian snowcover, we should get quite a ridge up into the EPO position, which may well build the coldest air mass we have seen so far this winter up in Canada, and with such a -EPO in place, no doubt some of this would drain into the Midwest, which should lead to better snow chances if the NAO relaxation is real. That's the real key. These events on the Asian side though look to lead to quite a warming of the stratosphere, so we may have to watch for the AO / NAO to tank again sometime later in January. This is quite the pattern projected by modeling (map courtesy of MDA): By the way Harry, your hunches were spot on with this winter, so congrats. I know despite our debates a few months back, we weren't all that far off, but you were leaning on the colder risks pretty heavily, whereas I wasn't sure about that. This is definitely going to be a colder winter than a lot of folks, myself included, would have expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Temp is in free fall here ... 3F by the morning... 23F now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The latest GFS shows things becoming pretty active after about the 10th. It's pretty far out there, but it has shown a pretty active pattern setting in after the 10th for the last few days. The first 10 days of January look to be pretty boring, but we may be rewarded with a very active and cold pattern soon after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 OK, back to checking the correct January analogs. The 1950-1951 winter overall was nothing special here. 28" Nov-March. I didn't even go back and check January by itself. On the other hand. The winter of 1981-1982 was a winter I do not understand at all. I must sometime go to the library and read the newspapers from that winter. (I was not here then.) Why is it such a big deal here? The Kokomo coop observer recorded 43.2" for January and 91.46" for Nov-March. No foolin' on those numbers. I could do that kinda winter anytime. (I attached the spreadsheet of the winter data.) I remember that storm. It was back before I became seriously interested in the weather. That snowstorm was HUGE, with some blizzard conditions. I was working in Hartford City and living in Gas City at the time. The forecast was calling for 6" and it was snowing when I went to work. When I left the factory at 3:30, it was like, "oh, s***!!!" I had a Jeep CJ- 7 and mistakenly thought I could drive the 15 miles home. It got hung in a drift in the middle of the road that was as high as the hood. It stayed there for 3 days. They opened the local Armory for stranded travelers and I spent that time helping out at the makeshift shelter. I only remember that East-Cenrtal IN had a lollipop of higher amounts. If only I had kept records back then. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I remember that storm. It was back before I became seriously interested in the weather. That snowstorm was HUGE, with some blizzard conditions. I was working in Hartford City and living in Gas City at the time. The forecast was calling for 6" and it was snowing when I went to work. When I left the factory at 3:30, it was like, "oh, s***!!!" I had a Jeep CJ- 7 and mistakenly thought I could drive the 15 miles home. It got hung in a drift in the middle of the road that was as high as the hood. It stayed there for 3 days. They opened the local Armory for stranded travelers and I spent that time helping out at the makeshift shelter. I only remember that East-Cenrtal IN had a lollipop of higher amounts. If only I had kept records back then. Good times. Yeah I don't know what I'd do if it was that bad and I was here at the office, I think I'd find a hotel room or something around the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 January 1982 had quite an arctic outbreak in the lower 48. 1951 was a warm month locally but cold in the upper Midwest. I'd be more focused on temps since precip/snow is highly sensitive to individual storm tracks. So, those 2 analogs would suggest that anything can happen temp wise in our area. Yes indeed...it looks like there were actually two intense shots of arctic air. It was -26F in Chicago on 1/10/1982 (all-time record at that time, until beaten on 1/20/1985), -25F on 1/16/1982, and -23F on 1/17/1982. It was -45F in International Falls on 1/17/1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yes indeed...it looks like there were actually two intense shots of arctic air. It was -26F in Chicago on 1/10/1982 (all-time record at that time, until beaten on 1/20/1985), -25F on 1/16/1982, and -23F on 1/17/1982. It was -45F in International Falls on 1/17/1982. Yeah, I remember that now, nonetheless, Jan of '82 still had 12 days above 32 degrees, and 3 or 4 of them near 40, then there were 13 days below 20 degrees with the handful you mentioned above being below zero. The remainder of the days were between 20 and 32. The snow fall was 6" at it's most for the month, and down to 1" by the end of the month. Average daily high was 20.7 for the month. That's not too bad of a month, shave off a couple of the upper 30's and add a few more inches of snow, and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 EPO going negative and a somewhat relaxed NAO? music to my ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Looks like a couple of interesting clipper systems this week. The second one especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It is truly amazing to look outside and see completely bare ground. To go from a cold and very white December to wake up Jan 1st and see hardly even any snow piles in people driveways, just a few here and there, is depressing. Still a lot in parking lots from plows (which will be harder than a rock in a few hours) but big deal. Luckily, it looks like MAYBE we wont even have to deal with this bare ground for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 BTW, this is why I'd love to see a repeat of January 1982, and that whole winter for that matter. Best part is with this past December, we have a good + cushion on 81-82. LAF/WL top 10 snowiest seasons 1) 66.1"...1977-78 2) 61.5"...1981-82 3) 56.4"...1904-05 4) 53.8"...1903-04 5) 49.3"...1983-84 6) 47.8"...2007-08 7) 46.3"...1929-30 8) 43.8"...1911-12 9) 43.0"...1925-26 10) 40.2"...1905-06 Indeed 1981-82 is definitely near and dear to my heart as well. DETROIT top 10 snowiest seasons 1.) 93.6"...1880-81 2.) 78.0"...1925-26 3.) 74.0"...1981-82 4.) 71.7"...2007-08 5.) 69.1"...1899-00 6.) 67.8"...1907-08 7.) 66.5"...1929-30 8.) 65.7"...2008-09 9.) 63.8"...2002-03 10.) 61.7"...1977-78 This includes snow depths of 18" in early February. I also have these pics my mom took in early feb 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy 2011 Guys As for a bold prediction for this month DTW doubles what it got last month. Sounds good...thats 18.6" . As depressing as it is to see bare ground again, I do have a good feeling it wont be for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z GFS...interesting. 500mb looks pretty tasty at hour 138 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z GFS...interesting. 500mb looks pretty tasty at hour 138 lol Notice how the models are all of a sudden really starting to hone in on some snow for this week, Tuesday but especially Friday. Whether this happens or not, let it be a lesson to all about getting too depressed because the models "show" dry weather for the next 2 weeks (as was the case a few days ago). They will change. It is definitely a strong possibility that this newly bare ground may not be bare for long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Hey, radar is showing some returns behind the front, stretching from PAH, through LAF, and up to SBN. Anyone on here that can verify a little snow from this band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Looks like a couple of interesting clipper systems this week. The second one especially. I think the second one has legs. Time to turn this ship around for you Ontario and MI guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Hey, radar is showing some returns behind the front, stretching from PAH, through LAF, and up to SBN. Anyone on here that can verify a little snow from this band? Virga here. Looks sweet on the radar though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Virga here. Looks sweet on the radar though. Thanks. That's what I was afraid of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I think the second one has legs. Time to turn this ship around for you Ontario and MI guys. With a lot of talk about extreme blocking returning later this winter, I think the ship has already sailed on this winter. It's now about minimizing the damage. This week could be one of those opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Notice how the models are all of a sudden really starting to hone in on some snow for this week, Tuesday but especially Friday. Whether this happens or not, let it be a lesson to all about getting too depressed because the models "show" dry weather for the next 2 weeks (as was the case a few days ago). They will change. It is definitely a strong possibility that this newly bare ground may not be bare for long GGEM was showing a more vigorous clipper type system all along. I got too GFS hug happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 With a lot of talk about extreme blocking returning later this winter, I think the ship has already sailed on this winter. It's now about minimizing the damage. This week could be one of those opportunities. Eh, who knows when the extreme blocking returns...and in what strength and location. Bottom line though is the next couple of weeks look "prime" for your area to cash a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Thanks. That's what I was afraid of. Update: Spitting flurries here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I think the second one has legs. Time to turn this ship around for you Ontario and MI guys. Oh absolutely. All its going to take here is a few good snowstorms and I will be right back on track for an above normal winter call. Though they are lagging more, its certainly within Toronto's reach as well. Detroits 9.3" thru 12/31 is 4.8" below normal to date, but thats more than anything due to just a trace in November. (And as I posted in the normals thread, less snowy Novembers and snowier January/Februarys are becoming a very distinct trend this past decade). This is going to sound weird, I certainly was jealous of the snow you guys got in Dec, but in a weird way it actually kind of worked out ok for me. It was a very busy month for me for a million different reasons, and Im afraid if we had lots of snowstorms I dont know how I would have got all the stuff I needed to get done done (because you know how much time a weenie dedicates to snow lol). And of course with a nice blanket of snow on the ground most of the month it was perfect for Christmas. Now, after the 5-6" snowpack didnt budge for 3 weeks it vanished in 1 day. As depressing is that is, MAYBE it was the shake up mother nature needed to get things more active around here. And by active, I mean frequent snowfalls. Not 1 snowstorm then cold and dry as we saw in December. With the holidays over I have a lot more time to devote to snow. Another reason that back-end winters are my favorite, as long as there is snow for Christmas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 "I'm melting....I'm melting"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 "I'm melting....I'm melting"... Do you have a map from December 29th for comparison purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z GFS...interesting. 500mb looks pretty tasty at hour 138 lol Yep. Could be a system to watch around the Midwest/Lakes. Then it absolutely explodes off of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12 years ago...she was underway. :wub: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=30&interval=5&year=1999&month=1&day=1&hour=12&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z GGEM still on board for this upcoming clipper. Looks like a relatively long duration light snow event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Eh, who knows when the extreme blocking returns...and in what strength and location. Bottom line though is the next couple of weeks look "prime" for your area to cash a little. yeah im actually of the belief that we needed some sort of a signal that the blocking has broken down/changed. its not a scientific approach, but... i am *extremely* encouraged by the appearance of clippers that can make it through the flow across the lakes region all the way to the east coast intact. we havent seen anything like this since janaury 2008. in fact the modeled storm for the end of next week is a similar northern branch system to the last relevant W-E moving system at the end of jan 2008. ironically, that storm signalled the end of synoptic winter for the eastern lakes. so we are talking a nearly 2 year period since! ..... this is huge development IMO......hopefully it doesnt disappear as we get closer, but we have the clipper on tuesday, i never thought i'd be so happy about seeing a low-end clipper lol. we'll see about the blocking returning, but the latest model runs have me thinking of getting on the Harry train at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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