TheWeatherPimp Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Definitely looks to be a wild month, starting with a massive storm system just in time for the first few days of the new year. Flooding, severe weather, snow & ice possible depending on what side of the storm you're on. The pattern looks primed by the week of the 8th for a miller b type storm with a transition back to a more winter like pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Predicted 8-9" for December imby. Ended up pretty close with 9.2" (assuming nothing else falls this month). I'll go with a range of 4-6" for January. As with December, my reasoning = none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Predicted 8-9" for December imby. Ended up pretty close with 9.2" (assuming nothing else falls this month). I'll go with a range of 4-6" for January. As with December, my reasoning = none. You're gonna bust. You'll get 12". Reasoning = none. Edit: YBY, not the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 January could be very volatile. I have to believe subtle southeast ridging will be back on the map and this can place much of the central Ohio Valley back NW in the battling line between cold rain and heavy snow. I have to hedge towards a colder look then I would normally do in a typical strong Nina but this is not typical and I think other factors are controlling a more Arctic influence. A few weeks ago I believed January would be biased warm but looking at several data factors shove everything 200 to 300 miles south and east and what could have been a wet and warmer month could end up a bit below normal and snowier month. The one factor that I still have to look over is do we warm up in front of the storm and it skews the true monthly look or are we cold and get over running and stay colder. Factors to consider as we progress into January. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Models trying to play "how fast can Hoosier lose 10 inches of snow." I'd rather lose it with something like the GFS though instead of just a boring melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Models trying to play "how fast can Hoosier lose 10 inches of snow." I'd rather lose it with something like the GFS though instead of just a boring melt. You think we'll pay for having such a great December by seeing a no snow show through mid Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You think we'll pay for having such a great December by seeing a no snow show through mid Feb? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 no What's average for Lafayette wrt seasonal snowfall? I'm guessing around 25" And, in that case, we just need 4" more down there to meet normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's average for Lafayette wrt seasonal snowfall? I'm guessing around 25" And, in that case, we just need 4" more down there to meet normal. That's what I go with but I think Chicago WX said the long term average is 28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That's what I go with but I think Chicago WX said the long term average is 28" 25.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 25.5" 4.6" away!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 4.6" away!! Pretty amazing. Might as well start shooting for the stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Pretty amazing. Might as well start shooting for the stars. Chad went home for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Chad went home for the night. I saw that. Hopefully the COOPs around LAF keep reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Pretty amazing. Might as well start shooting for the stars. I know I'm putting you to work, but Top 10 of LAF history? Probably unattainable, but we can dream, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know I'm putting you to work, but Top 10 of LAF history? Probably unattainable, but we can dream, right? I'll have to get back to you on Tuesday. All my snow stats are back in LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll have to get back to you on Tuesday. All my snow stats are back in LAF. You mean you can't recite them off the top of your head? Haha, alright, sounds good. Have a very merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You mean you can't recite them off the top of your head? Haha, alright, sounds good. Have a very merry Christmas! Ha. I'm pretty sure 1903-04, 1977-78, 1981-82 are some of the seasons in the top 10. Merry Christmas to you too. And to everyone else as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You're gonna bust. You'll get 12". Reasoning = none. Edit: YBY, not the airport. Nah, we don't get average snowfall anymore. Too tall a task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 EURO not looking remotely as cold as the GFS beyond the weekend cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 EURO not looking remotely as cold as the GFS beyond the weekend cutter. Looks seasonable for the southern and eastern parts of the region, but relatively cold for the Upper Plains and Upper Midwest. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out down the road, post-cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks seasonable for the southern and eastern parts of the region, but relatively cold for the Upper Plains and Upper Midwest. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out down the road, post-cutter. zonal flow at H5 on the EURO makes me think it's headed for another warm up beyond D10 after a couple of days of seasonably cold weather following the departure of the big storm. GFS's pattern looks like it's more conducive for a reloading of the cold, with a big ridge on the west coast. But considering in both cases it's beyond D10, it's probably not worth analyzing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 zonal flow at H5 on the EURO makes me think it's headed for another warm up beyond D10 after a couple of days of seasonably cold weather following the departure of the big storm. GFS's pattern looks like it's more conducive for a reloading of the cold, with a big ridge on the west coast. But considering in both cases it's beyond D10, it's probably not worth analyzing much. Can't disagree with you on that point (+10 days). Needless to say, the pattern of most of this December is long gone very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can't disagree with you on that point (+10 days). Needless to say, the pattern of most of this December is long gone very soon. Will be interesting to see how the temps respond with the New Years event considering the extensive snow cover in place. Could envision a little ice before we warm up enough for rain. Fog potential looks very high if not downright epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will be interesting to see how the temps respond with the New Years event considering the extensive snow cover in place. Could envision a little ice before we warm up enough for rain. Fog potential looks very high if not downright epic. Agreed on all points. It's gonna suck watching all of our snow melt though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Agreed on all points. It's gonna suck watching all of our snow melt though. Yeah it will, but like I said, I'd rather it melt with a bang instead of a boring process. I'm ok with it if we get a really dynamic system with some severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah it will, but like I said, I'd rather it melt with a bang instead of a boring process. I'm ok with it if we get a really dynamic system with some severe potential. You make a good point...I hadn't thought of it that way. I'll be a little okay with it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Agreed on all points. It's gonna suck watching all of our snow melt though. At least you have a lot to melt As for the ice potential, I think the models are downplaying it with that initial wave that draws up the warm air, I certainly envision the potential highly for ice to rain with that first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 LC is thinking another storm possible the first week of January, taking a more Southern route, providing snow across portions of the MW/OV/NE. The computer schemes remain very aggressive in returning North America to a strong blocking configuration by 240 hours. Both +PNA or -EPO elements coincide with a return to a -NAP signal (Greenland/Baffin block) by the end of the medium range, with the snow cover regaining ground over the Midwest and Northeast. Note that the operational ECMWF scheme and the GFS ensemble package are VERY bullish on another intense winter storm moving out of Texas into lower Appalachia by January 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 LC is thinking another storm possible the first week of January, taking a more Southern route, providing snow across portions of the MW/OV/NE. I'll pass on a miss to the south after a miss to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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