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Tuesday, July 12, 2022 Stupid Severe Potential


weatherwiz
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Just now, Brian5671 said:

I'll be happy with a shower to quench the parched ground here

Greatest potential is certainly across southeast PA where the SPC has upgraded to Enhanced. There is a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates there which will yield higher CAPE. Here though...meh. Here is sounding from OKX...lots of warm layers in there. I think we'll see some heavy downpours and thunder move through but going to be tough to get any severe and much lightning production. 

image.png.702d18f4b830bd3a1c15b9cee16ffd1a.png

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Greatest potential is certainly across southeast PA where the SPC has upgraded to Enhanced. There is a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates there which will yield higher CAPE. Here though...meh. Here is sounding from OKX...lots of warm layers in there. I think we'll see some heavy downpours and thunder move through but going to be tough to get any severe and much lightning production. 

image.png.702d18f4b830bd3a1c15b9cee16ffd1a.png

mm... not a fan of having morphed aspects into a necessity to upgrade down there.

Let the chokin' begin...

I guess, however, we already have 60 to 65 dp advected in as of dawn and we're working it over with ample sun.  The idea that the ceilings were too pessimistic/SW flow climo was the right call though, as there's clearly more clear skies and insolation heating going on.  Most locales from PHL to PWM are already in the low 80s/low 60s... So there might actually be enough in situ along the northern extension of risk to sustain activity. 

It really just comes down to bulk instability - if there's enough, there's enough.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

mm... not a fan that aspect morphed into that necessity down there.

Let the chokin' begin...

I guess, however, we already have 60 to 65 dp advected in as of dawn and were' working it over with ample sun.  The idea that the ceilings were too pessimistic/SW flow climo was the right call though, as there clearly more clear and insolation heating going on.  Most locales from PHL to PWM are already in the low 80s/low 60s... So there might actually be enough in situ along the northern extension of risk to sustain activity. 

It really just comes down to bulk instability - if there's enough, there's enough.

Certainly no complaints with heating today. I mean when you look at the setup this is a pretty solid setup to produce numerous severe weather reports, however, the lapse rates and warmth of the mid-levels are so terrible they are pretty much offsetting everything else that favors a higher-end (in terms of severe weather reports) type event. 

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly no complaints with heating today. I mean when you look at the setup this is a pretty solid setup to produce numerous severe weather reports, however, the lapse rates and warmth of the mid-levels are so terrible they are pretty much offsetting everything else that favors a higher-end (in terms of severe weather reports) type event. 

Sort of indirectly related ... 

This relates back to those aspects re the summer pattern bias being "fake" cold?    ... Not entirely, but ...the structure of the flow has been a facade of cold more so than not.  There have been some cooler air mass latched ons - but not really very many.  Too many 80s days inside those; no, the chilly nights we have observed are not/have not been because of CAA.  They were home grown radiator results from having such parched DPs in the area.  Deserts drop to 32 and rise to 100 as an extreme example.   We've still managed 84 those recent two days down here along Rt 2 in N-central mass, despite 48's or whatever the lows were "lying" about the cold air mass - and that's sort of been part of this last 45 days of persistence.  Proof, we are modestly above normal across SNE's sites.

Not entirely lying... I mean thermodynamic/wet bulb temperature is probably more important, physically, than all else ... but you get my meaning.   I just suggest this unrelenting pattern bias to pack heights back west is not actually coupled with the kind of lower heights we are more conditioned via education and experience to thinking we should see back east.  Those paltry lapse rates you describe sort of exposes that reality ?  All it has really done for us is stymie big heat from getting here. Nothing else.... it's like the whole behavior of the thing was singularly destined to prevent that one metric - kind of amusing...

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sort of indirectly related ... 

This relates back to those aspects re the summer pattern bias being "fake" cold?    ... Not entirely, but ...the structure of the flow has been a facade of cold more so than not.  There have been some cooler air mass latched on - but not really very many.  Too many 80s days inside those; no, the chilly nights we have observed are not/have not been because of CAA.  They were home grown radiator results from having such parched DPs in the area.  Deserts drop to 32 and rise to 100 as an extreme example.   We've still managed 84 those recent two days down here along Rt 2 in N-central mass, despite 48's or whatever the lows were "lying" about the cold air mass - and that's sort of been part of this last 45 days of persistence.  Proof, we are modestly above normal across SNE's sites.

Not entirely lying... I mean thermodynamic/wet bulb temperature is probably more important, physically, than all else ... but you get my meaning.   I just suggest this unrelenting pattern bias to pack heights back west is not actually coupled with the kind of lower heights we are more conditioned via education and experience to thinking we should see back east.  Those paltry lapse rates you describe sort of exposes that reality ?  All it has really done for us is stymie big heat from getting here. Nothing else.... it's like the whole behavior of the thing was singularly destined to prevent that one metric - kind of amusing...

Absolutely agreed and great point regarding the cool overnights...they're tied into the low dews/strong radiational cooling. We have certainly seen some cooler airmasses (like a few weekends back) but for the most part these airmasses are very typical for this time of year (minus the dews). But this is a great post...you should copy/paste into the main thread :lol: 

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2 minutes ago, radarman said:

the 3km nammy is pretty solid

It is...which is a big head scratcher for me. Well actually (and this might be a dumb question) is the NAMNST and 3km the same thing? It shows a decent line today but nothing else does. That model always seems to poo-poo convective events (and not even just here) but today it looks solid. 

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Absolutely agreed and great point regarding the cool overnights...they're tied into the low dews/strong radiational cooling. We have certainly seen some cooler airmasses (like a few weekends back) but for the most part these airmasses are very typical for this time of year (minus the dews). But this is a great post...you should copy/paste into the main thread :lol: 

Be my guest ... you can even do so without citing the source ;)

I don't go anywhere outside this sub-forum space ...save occasional peeks and missives over in Don Sutherland's climate threads - otherwise no. Don't dare.  Not until Brian or whomever really runs this show not only strips that 'Buckeyfan1's' moderator status, but then bans the c-sucker's membership - along with any other petty little superiority basement trolls they are allowing to run amok ...  That way, you post it and you start getting PMs or post pot-shots that explaining why your insights are garbage- they just allow too much disrespect that is frankly not even asked for - one should not want/need/seek their recognition.  But you just don't do that to people you don't know... Social mores ftl  

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5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

really need the rn, but I know how these work out for us

I'm sure you've heard the expression, 'dry begets dry'   I've read years ago that aridification of land can 'suck' moisture out of the atmosphere - not as efficient as evaporation of moisture out of soils but it does go the other direction.   We can sort of hint of that happening here, with DPs struggling to get to 65 N of the Mass Pike, despite hours after hours of stream-lined flow from an upper 60s source. 

Hi resolution sat loop shows scouring shadows N-S in the Hudson Valley ...  we could be witnessing a feedback where marginal theta-e injection is not sufficient to offset the absorption - just wondering... 

But the whole axis of instability and triggering and all that is too far west, either way...  Without DP issue, this looks like that typical scenario where late evening what's left comes through for us eastern folks as anvil exhaust light .. moderate rain for 25 minutes and a distant boom.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm sure you've heard the expression, 'dry begets dry'   I've read years ago that aridification of land can 'suck' moisture out of the atmosphere - not as efficient as evaporation of moisture out of soils but it does go the other direction.   We can sort of hint of that happening here, with DPs struggling to get to 65 N of the Mass Pike, despite hours after hours of stream-lined flow from an upper 60s source. 

Hi resolution sat loop shows scouring shadows N-S in the Hudson Valley ...  we could be witnessing a feedback where marginal theta-e injection is not sufficient to offset the absorption - just wondering... 

But the whole axis of instability and triggering and all that is too far west, either way...  Without DP issue, this looks like that typical scenario where late evening what's left comes through for us eastern folks as anvil exhaust light .. moderate rain for 25 minutes and a distant boom.

Sadly I’d take it 

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mcd1457.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1457
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern NY into New England

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460...

   Valid 121832Z - 122000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and hail should spread
   eastward this afternoon. An areal extension of Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 460 and/or a downstream watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually intensified over the past hour
   or so across eastern NY. Strong effective bulk shear of 50+ kt
   associated with an enhanced mid-level jet remains more than
   sufficient for supercells, with multiple attempts at discrete
   thunderstorms noted. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining poor,
   diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass has contributed to
   around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a narrow corridor along and just
   ahead of the ongoing activity. Some recent clustering has also
   occurred in far eastern NY, and current expectations are for a mix
   of multicells and supercells to spread eastward into parts of New
   England over the next few hours. Both damaging winds and hail should
   remain a threat with this activity. Based on current thunderstorm
   motions around 35-40 kt, an areal extension of Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 460 to include more of eastern NY and southern VT may be
   needed. A downstream watch into parts of New England where
   sufficient destabilization has occurred is also possible.

 

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I was going to try to go north from Springfield but I don't want to drive far. I have a nail in my tire which I noticed last week. I'm getting it fixed Thursday but the leak is very slow. I put air in last week and the light finally came on today. I don't have an air gauge and I need a gas station that has the machine which tells what the PSI is at. There is a gold course near me though (Veterans something). But I'm afraid of a split. 

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I'm hoping that stuff southwest of Albany strengthens as it moves into Massachusetts. If not that is BS. Strong stuff to the north and then strong stuff well off to the southwest...stupid fooking split BS. Anyways I wonder if there is any wind damage going on. These storms have nice structures on radar but 2-6km lapse rates are actually not as tremendously steep so that may be holding back wind potential. 

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