GaWx Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 1. Near the Southeastern US: Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the next day or so. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through tonight and into Saturday. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Not high odds but interesting nonetheless. The radar appearance has deteriorated since earlier, but convection continues to fire as it drifts near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 The banding and humidity is so damn tropical. Currently 77 with 100% humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Tightened up a bit with winds 30-40 mph in that band above the center 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 A PWS on Kiawah Island is recording 22mph winds, gusts to 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 A PWS on Kiawah Island is recording 22mph winds, gusts to 29.It’s gonna be a rough evening across Charleston. Consistent 25-40 mph winds with heavy rain in that band approaching Seabrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 This looks like a TD/low end TS making landfall. I’ve seen much less classified 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 That’s definitely tropical. Not a lot of wind, but the structure is excellent for a developing system. We’ll see if it’ll meander on the coast or just offshore the next 24 hours. 50 miles more offshore and this would have been a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 This one may not get classified given how close it is to the coast, but it has really delivered some big rainfall totals along the SC and GA coastline. Just south of Charleston is getting hit hard. 4+ inches of rain in the last two hours. Looks like the center is meandering right at the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Wow, starting to see gusts over 40kts now. This invest is the real deal lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Impressive convective pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 NHC taking note. This is a really impressive invest for having this much land interaction. With a weak LLC over the coast and deep convection firing offshore with obvious rotation, this one could pick up a name as it moves northeast. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1150 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure system along the South Carolina coast. Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bonnie, located near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Near the South Carolina Coast: Updated: Recent surface observations indicate that a small low pressure system located just inland to the west of Charleston, South Carolina, is producing localized areas of winds to tropical storm force along the South Carolina coast. This system is expected to move northeastward along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts over the weekend, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form if the center of the low remains close enough to the Atlantic waters during that time. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across coastal portions of the Carolinas over the weekend. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 60% now… Near the South Carolina Coast: Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that the small low pressure system located along the coast of South Carolina is producing sustained tropical-storm-force winds primarily to the southeast of its center over water and near the immediate coast. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted near the area of low pressure over the last 6 to 12 hours. If the associated showers and thunderstorms persist and continue to become better organized, then this system could become a tropical storm later today while moving northeastward along the South Carolina coast, and then reaching the North Carolina coast by tonight. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across coastal portions of the Carolinas over the weekend. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details. Further information on the system, including offshore gale warnings, can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 2, 2022 Author Share Posted July 2, 2022 Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 79.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Always fascinating to watch TC genesis. Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening. Deep convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 hours. In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina. As a result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the northeast of Charleston. Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a motion of 045/7 kt. A low- to mid-level area of high pressure is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during the next 48 hours. The bulk of the available track guidance suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids. Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours. As a result, strengthening is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast of the center. Colin is likely to dissipate over the western Atlantic soon after 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday. 2. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 33.2N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND 48H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Just checked coastal locations and buoys offshore and the highest I found was 23 knots. Has anyone found any buoy locations with 40mph sustained winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 4 hours ago, lee59 said: Just checked coastal locations and buoys offshore and the highest I found was 23 knots. Has anyone found any buoy locations with 40mph sustained winds? Frying pan tower is currently gusting to 44 kts, sustained at 30 kts The location has been seeing sustained winds between 30-35 for about 3 hours and have a max gust of 46 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Glad this took off like it did. Was cool to watch for sure, the banding and swirl were obvious on both radar and eye sight yesterday evening in Charleston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Still Tropical storm warnings up along the Carolina coast, I just don't see why. The radar shows nothing more than scattered showers and I can't find any wind reports of near Tropical storm force. Am I missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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