caviman2201 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 6 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z 3K NAM. Heavy rain moving in overnight through mid afternoon Saturday. Added 6Z GFS. Kinda weird NWS hasn't hoisted the Flood Watch... Its a Friday in summer... lots of people are going to go down to old Ellicott City to eat and hit the bars with no clue this could potentially make their night a living hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Just walked three blocks downtown Baltimore..feels like I walked 30. Super humid. Gross, in fact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 2 hours ago, caviman2201 said: Kinda weird NWS hasn't hoisted the Flood Watch... Its a Friday in summer... lots of people are going to go down to old Ellicott City to eat and hit the bars with no clue this could potentially make their night a living hell. There really isn't much of a threat this evening on the east side of the Potomac (and the threat to the west doesn't ramp up until you go quite a bit further west). The heaviest rain will fall much later tonight through Saturday morning. While I am also a bit surprised that a flash flood watch hasn't yet been hoisted, the last night's guidance had a lot of disagreement on the location of the heaviest rain, so I can't blame them for waiting until there was more certainty. Looks to me like there is more agreement in the 12Z guidance that is coming out, and that watch should be hoisted by mid-afternoon at the latest. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 10 hours ago, Deck Pic said: H**ward. I will check but pretty sure 2004 had <10 in JJA. 2003 maybe just a few more. Ji and I were pissed that we weren't good at heat anymore. We didn't hit 95 in either summer, and we lost faith that it could get that hot here again. Of course that didn't last long. Thank you Ma*teo. That rural winter place-you going to do it again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 WB 12Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 ^only 2.5”?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Are we doing the usual models getting drier closer to game time !!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Here is the HREF 24h local probability matched-mean. For those who don't know the HREF, it's basically creating means and probabilities from existing hi-res models (NAM Nest, HRRR, and Hi-Res Windows). Impressive signal: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 I'm squeezing the Euro for all it's worth. I was expecting hot and sunny rather than needing waders for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 18z HRRR likes south of DC better. Clearly the MD magnet is not programmed in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: 18z HRRR likes south of DC better. Clearly the MD magnet is not programmed in. @WxUSAF has turned on the drought magnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 biked little bennett yesterday which is notorious for staying muddy in some of the low lying spots. it was damp, but not too bad. I don't think this area needs several inches of rain. maybe a good soak, but i'm good on 2-4" of rain. latest nam looks like a nothing burger for northern md, but it's also been dancing back and forth each run it seems. one thing I do know is that it's humid out...like downpour humid. side note...was in va beach last weekend and the water was swimmable. thought it wouldn't be given what "feels" like a cooler summer so far. also interesting were the salps that i thought were grains of sand, but instead were swarms of jelly-like things. kinda gross, but they don't sting. in fact, they're not even jellyfish apparently. learned something new that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Radar is aiming this first batch crossing the mountains toward southern MD/Northern Neck area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 2 hours ago, 87storms said: biked little bennett yesterday which is notorious for staying muddy in some of the low lying spots. it was damp, but not too bad. I don't think this area needs several inches of rain. maybe a good soak, but i'm good on 2-4" of rain. latest nam looks like a nothing burger for northern md, but it's also been dancing back and forth each run it seems. one thing I do know is that it's humid out...like downpour humid. side note...was in va beach last weekend and the water was swimmable. thought it wouldn't be given what "feels" like a cooler summer so far. also interesting were the salps that i thought were grains of sand, but instead were swarms of jelly-like things. kinda gross, but they don't sting. in fact, they're not even jellyfish apparently. learned something new that day. Upper Montgomery County thankfully has missed most of the rainfall, so the upper third of those watershed (Seneca Creeks, Hawlings River, etc.) has //a bit// of leeway. My primary concern is Rock Creek, Sligo Creek, NW Branch Anacostia, Little Falls Branch, and Minnehaha Branch. Gauges have come down, but we're still moving some decent water and those watersheds are flashy to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Already have issues in West Virginia: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Charlottesville is getting shellacked. Already 1-2” around there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 This main cell over Cville has 45k foot echo tops with some of the loudest thunder I've heard in a while 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Looks like cells firing in Culpepper and Warranton heading NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 This main cell over Cville has 45k foot echo tops with some of the loudest thunder I've heard in a whileLooks like that cell will end up dropping a fairly widespread 3-5”… pretty impressive stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amorphous Iodine Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 DP is down to 76 F. Nice to no longer have a DP in the high 70s. Sweat refuses to evaporate on days like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 7 hours ago, jewell2188 said: Are we doing the usual models getting drier closer to game time !!? Been the pattern last 3/4 events and I presume this one will fill in and expand later or it will be drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Rain has started here. RIP drought thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Trouble brewing in that area from Sterling to Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 It has been absolutely pouring here in Great Falls for the past hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Heaviest rates look like they're moving into Bethesda and maybe NW DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 The blob is growing in size, the entire beltway may get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, Amped said: The blob is growing in size, the entire beltway may get smoked I was about to say, it’s basically taking over NoVa, specifically in the Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria areas, and co to yes to grow/intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Could see that FFW coming from a mile away. Stay safe, everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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