mappy Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Looks like last shot for northern balt county might be around the 5-6 timeframe for something wet. Too bad it’s falling apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Sum the last 10 days of sub-12hr Euro QPF for me and I’m probably near 4”. Verification? 0.1” 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 Stay on target…stay on target 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Stay on target…stay on target You know what happened, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Stay on target…stay on target 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 46 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like you are about to get hit Yes, finally! A pretty good shower (no lightning). About a half inch which is best rain in weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 14 minutes ago, H2O said: You know what happened, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 27 minutes ago, yoda said: It’s disintegrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 Another shower here now. Pushing the day total over 0.6”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s disintegrating 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 55 minutes ago, mappy said: Too bad it’s falling apart right. on. cue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 That was disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 0.03" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 2.59” for July isn’t very good. And I don’t think I should pin any hopes on that batch in western MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 18z GFS for next Thursday approaches 100 and is in low 100s on Friday at DCA 12z CMC for next Thursday is near 90 and probably mid 90 to upper 90s (like 97ish) for Friday at DCA 12z EURO for next Thursday is mid 90s and mid 90s for Friday at DCA Question -- why are the temps 10-15 degrees warmer in SNE compared to us on Friday on 12z EURO? I do see that 925mbT are 5 degrees warmer up there compared to down here... and 850s are 3-4 degrees Celsius warmer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Raining pretty good here right now... muahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Our next opportunity for failure begins tomorrow night. Also, not good for the folks in parts of Kentucky. Disco from WPC excessive rainfall discussion for day 2- Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic... There is a growing signal for repeating storms to develop along a stalled frontal boundary that could potentially yield several inches of rain across middle Tennessee, far southern Kentucky and areas back towards the Missouri Bootheel. During this period much of the southern tier of the country will have pooled Gulf moisture with PWs upwards of 2 inches (+1- +2 sigma) along with nearly parallel low level flow (20-25 kts) to the W-E orientated frontal boundary. This is a favorable setup for very efficient rainfall. Even with another set of model guidance...the exact location of the frontal boundary along with when it starts to lift northward dampens confidence as to whether or not a Moderate Risk will need to be introduced over areas soaked by recent excessive rainfall events. Much like yesterday...opted to use a broader brush for the Slight Risk area than usual for what may well be modest rainfall amounts across the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians. There is still some possibility that some heavy rain could develop along east of the Appalachians later Sunday night into early Monday as a shortwave induces low pressure to form along a front that extends from Virginia out over the Atlantic. The model agreement is not unanimous but the NCEP guidance has started to reflect the idea began by the UKMET 24 hours ago. Made only minor adjustments to the on-going outlook there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 9 hours ago, yoda said: 18z GFS for next Thursday approaches 100 and is in low 100s on Friday at DCA 12z CMC for next Thursday is near 90 and probably mid 90 to upper 90s (like 97ish) for Friday at DCA 12z EURO for next Thursday is mid 90s and mid 90s for Friday at DCA Question -- why are the temps 10-15 degrees warmer in SNE compared to us on Friday on 12z EURO? I do see that 925mbT are 5 degrees warmer up there compared to down here... and 850s are 3-4 degrees Celsius warmer as well. The location of the upper ridge on the 12z Euro, and the surface high off the Atlantic coast, produces mid and lower level wind trajectory that is ideal for downslope /compressional heating for eastern/southern NE. At least that's the way it looks to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 LWX thinking that areas that have been left out recently could have a chance Sunday night -- let's hope! "...Although areas to the north across ern WV, and north central MD could see heavier rainfall totals, these areas have been very dry recently and I`m not anticipating any flooding issues across those areas at this time." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Beautiful morning. 57/sunny. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 some significant changes so far in the 12Z suite of models: several CAMs now show a batch of heavy showers moving across a good chunk of northern VA and northwestern MD during Sunday afternoon. The HRRR even goes so far as to make it a full Sunday afternoon washout for the metro areas. Will be interesting to see if this is a one-cycle glitch for the guidance or if it's figuring out now that Sunday won't be nearly as nice of a day as originally expected. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 good one: "thresholdy" By late morning/early afternoon Friday, a cold front may drop down from the northwest and usher in the next chance for a few strong to even severe thunderstorms for the area. Instability parameters are thresholdy at this point, but we`ll continue to monitor the latest for any potential significant forecast adjustments needed. breezy this morning, gusting ~15-20 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 12z suite shows rain shield remaining activated for my area for the fourth consecutive event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 57 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z suite shows rain shield remaining activated for my area for the fourth consecutive event. Euro is noticeably south and wetter than the other guidance. Good rain for both of us. But it’s the euro so… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is noticeably south and wetter than the other guidance. Good rain for both of us. But it’s the euro so… Yeah, like you, the Euro has given me multiple inches of rain over several events that in reality added up to a tenth or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Mount Holly dropped the D word. A return to mid-summer heat and humidity is in store for the long term. The weak upper trough across the Northeast eases up in the Short term and beginning of the Long term allowing the higher heights from the Midwest to move back into the Middle Atlantic. We will likely see several days in a row of temperatures in the low/mid 90s and dew points in the moderate (Wed) to uncomfortable (Thu/Fri) range. It`s possible that excessive heat headlines may be required for some of these periods. Rains in a pattern like this can be scarce and the high temps will only aggravate the drought like conditions across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: Mount Holly dropped the D word. A return to mid-summer heat and humidity is in store for the long term. The weak upper trough across the Northeast eases up in the Short term and beginning of the Long term allowing the higher heights from the Midwest to move back into the Middle Atlantic. We will likely see several days in a row of temperatures in the low/mid 90s and dew points in the moderate (Wed) to uncomfortable (Thu/Fri) range. It`s possible that excessive heat headlines may be required for some of these periods. Rains in a pattern like this can be scarce and the high temps will only aggravate the drought like conditions across the region. I thought you meant derecho, then I got hit with drought. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Sunset in OC, moon on left…. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 4 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: I thought you meant derecho, then I got hit with drought. Me too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 6z guidance doesn’t seem to be too enthused w our rain chances today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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